Tuesday/Wednesday's Event

[Zenarcher]

Buoy Reports

K5 Buoy North West Scotland:

Wind speed 12mph

Temp 12c

Pressure 997mb

Wave Height 7ft

M4 Buoy Northern Ireland:

Wind speed 9mph

Temp 14c

Pressure 1003mb

Wave Height 8ft

M3 Buoy South Ireland

Wind speed 18mph

Temp 15c

Pressure 1001mb

Wave Height 4ft

62125 Buoy North East England

Wind speed 21mph

Temp 15c

Pressure 1004mb

Wave Height 4ft

62114 Buoy North East Scotland

Wind speed 33mph

Temp 14c

Pressure 998mb

Wave Height 4ft

[Rustynailer]

(I've never looked at those pages with graphs before - they're excellent).

I have just looked, sadly my area is N/A, the charts are excellent

IMO tomorrows and the day afters Fax's are thoroughly uncivilized for August All I can see is a lot of rain here as the approach is from the SW, which is as wet as it comes.

Regards,

Russ

Edited August 13, 2007 by Rustynailer

[NL]

Fantastic satellite image, certainly showing a lot of potential for heavy rain, lets hope it flies through

and not stall over the UK..

"copyright 2007 RSGB, University of Bern and NOAA"

[PB22]

Still considerable differences over where and how much rain may fall tomorrow, with tonight's 18Z GFS run showing differences from the 12Z. Its going to be a case of watching really now, but you always have to fancy western coasts and hills to see the wettest weather.

Winds will be strongest around south facing coasts - I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts of 50mph+ in a few places. All in all, autumnal like for the next 24-48 hours.

[saint]

my local forcast say 40+ mph wind speeds i dont really belive that and they say heavy rain? should i belive them? :wacko:

saint

Edited August 13, 2007 by saint

[saint]

Go with your instinct :wacko:

Tamara

yeh i will

saint

[Nick F]

The heaviest rain tomorrow is likely to be near the triple point, which tomorrow is suggested by UKMO to be over SW Wales on their fax for 12z Tuesday and moving NE across Northern England during the afternoon:

UKMO T+24 fax and slp/ppn:

Low pressure at the triple point is likely to deepen as it moves NE under the left exit of a strong jet streak, to be off NE Scotland by 00z Wednesday looking at the T+36 fax, 18z GFS pretty much in agreement with this position, though it has the low's centre less deep:

A new low centre can be seen on the 00z Weds fax above - SW of Ireland, a look at 500mb and 300mb relative vorticity charts suggest an area of strong vorticity advection associated with an upper trough North of the jet stream pushing NE and creating PVA or upper wind divergence which develops the new surface low:

... the new low is suggested by both UKMO and GFS not too deepen much but remain as an open trough as it moves NE across Southern and central England during Wednesday, bring in more in the way of convective rainfall over England and Wales with the chance of hail and thunder - with dry air modelled by GFS spreading in aloft, which aswell as enhancing convection/hail may bring winds of the jet stream aloft towards the surface as strong gusts:

[Cookie]

I will be watching with intrest

[grab my graupel]

I will be watching with intrest

Hi Cookie

Yes looking on the rainfall radar, is what looks like some very heavy rain moving

into parts of Devon.

Edited August 13, 2007 by grab my graupels

[grab my graupel]

Looking quite nasty the rain in the Devon area now

[SMU]

Looking quite nasty the rain in the Devon area now

Lovely Arc on the 1am radar-

Some very heavy rain in the midst of all that-

It will be interesting to see how it holds together on Landfall- Some torrential outbreaks-

S

[Somerset Squall]

Looking quite nasty the rain in the Devon area now

Indeed it does, I expect to catch that in the next hour or so. The wind is picking up here a bit now.

[grab my graupel]

Indeed it does, I expect to catch that in the next hour or so. The wind is picking up here a bit now.

Yes of course you will be amongst the first to taste this weather system.

How strong is the wind down there at the moment S. S. ?

Lovely Arc on the 1am radar-

Some very heavy rain in the midst of all that-

It will be interesting to see how it holds together on Landfall- Some torrential outbreaks-

S

Yes I agree Steve :wacko: ....Can't make up my mind whether to stay up and watch it though.

I know normally when I do that, it always end up a big disappointment

Edited August 14, 2007 by grab my graupels

[Roger J Smith]

Appears to be forming a warm frontal wave with intense thunderstorm activity heading for Dorset after clipping southeast Devon next half hour. Suspect this will bring torrential rainfalls to much of Dorset and western Hampshire, Wiltshire, southern Worcs next 3-4 hours then become less intense towards sunrise as it elongates and becomes a more mobile warm front heading north. Rainfall potential for these counties overnight could be 75 mms or more in some areas. But the main action is still well out in the Atlantic and scheduled to move across Ireland in the late morning, western UK afternoon, eastern UK overnight into Wednesday morning.

[grab my graupel]

Appears to be forming a warm frontal wave with intense thunderstorm activity heading for Dorset after clipping southeast Devon next half hour. Suspect this will bring torrential rainfalls to much of Dorset and western Hampshire, Wiltshire, southern Worcs next 3-4 hours then become less intense towards sunrise as it elongates and becomes a more mobile warm front heading north. Rainfall potential for these counties overnight could be 75 mms or more in some areas. But the main action is still well out in the Atlantic and scheduled to move across Ireland in the late morning, western UK afternoon, eastern UK overnight into Wednesday morning.

Sounds like it might be worth staying up a while longer then.

Thanks for that Roger :wacko:

Brian.

This link might be worth watching this morning

http://www.royalalbertbridge.co.uk/html/bridgecam.html

[Somerset Squall]

Yes of course you will be amongst the first to taste this weather system.

How strong is the wind down there at the moment S. S. ?

Gusting at around 25mph at the moment, looks like Plymouth is seeing gusts in excess of 40 mph already though. It's certainly odd to be listening to the rain lashing against the windows in August. :wacko:

[grab my graupel]

Gusting at around 25mph at the moment, looks like Plymouth is seeing gusts in excess of 40 mph already though. It's certainly odd to be listening to the rain lashing against the windows in August.

Hi S.S.

Yes it is looking fairly gusty on that live web cam atm.

Why don't they make webcams with windscreen wipers :wacko:

Edited August 14, 2007 by grab my graupels

[Somerset Squall]

Hi S.S.

Yes it is looking fairly gusty on that live web cam atm.

Why don't they make webcams with windscreen wipers :wacko:

LOL

Looks like the heaviest of that rain on the radar is staying to the south of me. Raining moderately here at the moment.

[grab my graupel]

Has Weathermaster got your location about right on here S.S.?

[Somerset Squall]

Has Weathermaster got your location about right on here S.S.?

Yeah, looks about right. My location is around the top half of the big dot- and looking at the radar the real torrential stuff only just missed me.

[grab my graupel]

Yeah, looks about right. My location is around the top half of the big dot- and looking at the radar the real torrential stuff only just missed me.

Good :wacko: My location seems about right too.

Yes things appear to be breaking up a little as they hit landfall, although the rain is still

fairly heavy.

There is quite a nice line around North Wales/Midlands area atm too, that seems to be intensifiing.

Edited August 14, 2007 by grab my graupels

[Optimus Prime]

Am I to get anything? Got some computer work to do, it would be such a shame if I were to get a powercut and loose it all.

[grab my graupel]

Am I to get anything? Got some computer work to do, it would be such a shame if I were to get a powercut and loose it all.

Hi O.P.

It does look like it may be headed your way, but not for a good few hours yet.

It might be a good Idea to back your work up periodically and save it :wacko:

Brian

[Optimus Prime]

Thanks for that :wacko:

Better get my washing in as well then.

[grab my graupel]

Thanks for that :wacko:

Better get my washing in as well then.

No problem

Well I think I'm going to bed for a little while, as there isn't a great deal happening just now,

although XC weather is reporting gusts of around 44mph along the South coast, and similar

around South Wales too.

I expect things will pick up a bit more tommorrow

Night all