Australia severe weather 2007/8 season

[Supercell Hunters]

Rainfall total overnight hits 15mm at airport and here 12mm. Ballina AP monthly record broke at 312mm and still counting, old record was 300mm. Here has slammed 355.8mm! Its wettest month of the year. Days now becoming warmer, humid and muggy especially hotter mins coming up. Just about 18 degrees everynight compared to inland around 12-15 degrees. Days sitting suck in high 20's especially 27-29 degrees before 30's comes back on weekend coming up.

[Cookie]

must be some serios flooding!

[Supercell Hunters]

Looks like a cyclone is forming today in Coral Sea, not sure it may affect our weather bu the forecasts showing it affecting our weather as increase showery and windy conditions. Winds are sitting at NE to SE all this week, which is a hint of larger event, possible cyclone. I say 20% sure about this but the ridge along QLD coast is weakening! This helping the development of cyclone and tracking.

No more natural disaster please, we just had two, not three or more.

Sunny today at max 27 degrees and min this morning was 5 degrees below average 12 degrees.

[Aussie Big Ben]

Well not only has TC formed in the GOC, another has formed in the Indian Ocean as well.

TC Guba (named by the PNG weather bureau) is currently sitting (as of 4am) 385km North East of Lockhart River and is expected to turn SE and intensify slightly.

TC Lee has also been named by the Perth Bureau but appears to be moving further away from Australia from it's location which is a long way from the coast. I would have thought this one was outside Australian waters but we have named it?

Extremely early start to our season, I wonder if this means that we will be seeing a lot more tropical cyclones this year.

BOM has a new cyclone page, Aust. BOM cyclone page which should have all the details on all systems that form this season.

[Somerset Squall]

Well not only has TC formed in the GOC, another has formed in the Indian Ocean as well.

TC Guba (named by the PNG weather bureau) is currently sitting (as of 4am) 385km North East of Lockhart River and is expected to turn SE and intensify slightly.

TC Lee has also been named by the Perth Bureau but appears to be moving further away from Australia from it's location which is a long way from the coast. I would have thought this one was outside Australian waters but we have named it?

Extremely early start to our season, I wonder if this means that we will be seeing a lot more tropical cyclones this year.

BOM has a new cyclone page, Aust. BOM cyclone page which should have all the details on all systems that form this season.

I think I read that TC Lee formed just inside the Perth area of responsibility hence why they named it. Of course it is now moving out of the area to sea, where hopefully it won't cause too many problems but it's already intensifying fairly quickly by the looks of things.

TC Guba may be slightly more concerning but although it is more likely to affect land it is not forecasted to get as strong as Lee will do.

Thanks for the link, that will be very helpful.

[Somerset Squall]

Well TC Guba has surprised me a little, sustained winds have shot up to 75 kt according to the JTWC, and an eye is now very clear to see. Guba is a tiny tropical cyclone so there could be big fluctuations in intensity as a result as smaller cyclones are more sensitive to the surrounding environment than larger cyclones.

TC Lee-Ariel is still tracking westwards and it doesn't look quite as impressive as it did this morning, the next update should arrive soon and I wouldn't be surprised to see if it has weakened. Anyway, it's in the meteo-france's area of responsibility now (hence the renaming of Ariel) so it's not really for this thread- it shouldn't effect land anyway.

Here is an image of Guba- showing how small it is:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

[Supercell Hunters]

Huge confusion about TC Guba, on news they said it has hit the coast while BoM showing its hasnt hit the coast and moving NE???? I am confused now! Nice further convection flaring up in Coral Sea.

Here, showers and storms are back! Nice warmer mins and maxs lately, its getting very muggy and sticky. Nice showers forming around us atm, hopefully to regain montly rainfall and more storms photography!

Bring it on!

[Supercell Hunters]

Looks like they are back since early November and October. Going in for severe storms today and tomorrow by convective outlook. The dewpoints are crazy hot and sticky, its 22.7/21.0 95% Feels Like 25.6 here now at 8am. Min was 19.7 last night and max today going for 27 degrees.

A real chance of storms are heavy rain, hail and damaging winds. Windshear problem will ease during today.

Bring it on storms!

[mac]

SH,

Thanks for all the updates, looks like you get some great weather over there.

Have a look at the cape and li projections for the Darwin area

[Supercell Hunters]

Hey mac, Darwin's cape and li is similar to here on eastern coast of australia.

Today, storms may be more severe due to damaging winds, flash flooding and hail from this low pressure system adjac with cold pool air from west. Last night we had 3.4mm which is not enough, today will be much more due to stronger cape.

Bring it on!

[Supercell Hunters]

STW is out

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

New South Wales

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for FLASH FLOODING, LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND

For people in the MID NORTH COAST, NORTHERN TABLELANDS and parts of the NORTHERN RIVERS, HUNTER and NORTH WEST SLOPES Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:37 pm Friday, 23 November 2007.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding, large hailstones and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Port Macquarie, Taree, Scone, Maitland, Armidale and Tenterfield.

Good looking storms heading towards the coastline especially the others from northeast aswell combining towards the west! Scattered showers and storms all night and tomorrow for again. Bring it on heavy falls!

[OZNikki]

Ah crappola... my other half is on his way to Maitland for a weekend of racing now... he's not gonna be happy!

[Supercell Hunters]

Looking scary up here now, mean skies and its terrible dark and ugly looks. Looks like going to storm here sooner or later! Its very hot and sticky under 95% cloud cover! Min was 19.5 and now its 27C. Dewpoint is over 22C and humidity at 78%.

Bring it on storms!

[Supercell Hunters]

Nice showers here lately and its looking very nice for next few days for new weather system. ECL may form off the coast near Fraser Island and it seems bringing gales and flooding rain for seqld and nensw. Looks like December rainfall continuing into over average again since August! Temperatures been relatively warm and humid of subtropical summer climate conditions, BUT its going to get hotter next week where temps reachong 30's in day and 20's at night!

Bring it on summer 2007/8!

[Supercell Hunters]

Now its time for very hot and humid stormy days with great start of December! Temperatures getting tropical here now and humidity increased. Had heavy showers yesterday and scored isolated 15mm here at north Lismore and Ballina scored 4.5mm. City of Lismore had 7mm at Smith Street. Nice shower coming in now and they seems getting widespread now and slow moving. Winds now getting picking up. Must be developing gusty storm!

LISMORE CITY Developing showers and scattering thunderstorms locally, severe convection north of city under warm and cold pool temperature MAY DEVELOP A GUSTY STORM. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 100KM/HR, HAIL UP TO 2CM AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS.

Bring it on storms!

[Cookie]

try and get some pics and videos mate, I love storm vidoes etc

[Supercell Hunters]

Today is day one of supercell outbreak no. 3! This is getting insane! Lifted index dropped to -5 to -7 over ne nsw with deep CAPE of 2100kg/j! Windshear has been improving by the radar and doppler this morning, heeps better than yesterday. Looks like the storms will be like in October including hailstorms and F1 tornado. Temperature today is 30 degrees at good humidity and dewpoint, gonna be humid and muggy one today. Following by 21 degrees min tonight.

Bring it on day 1!

[Supercell Hunters]

Few showers and storms active on radar atm and they seems coming this way, its only early in morning! Its so hot and sticky, very cloudy out there. Forecasted locally heavy falls and damaging winds, slight of hail today, looking good on instability levels aswell. Might get more than one storms today, some may be supercells due to favourable conditions. Since yesterday, the activity has been started from southwest very well.

Bring it on storms!

[Supercell Hunters]

Very large storm front coming up towards Northern Rivers now with severe cells with hail, winds and flooding. Looks like its getting larger compared the huge core near Coffs!

Radar: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR282.l...range=true#skip

Bloody awesome! Looks enormous! Bring it on monsoonal like rains!

[Supercell Hunters]

Great lightning show early this morning but miss the main rain part, Lismore got 23mm also Casino aswell.

More to come today!

Saturday: Showers developing this early afternoon with severe thunderstorms increasing. Possible squalls, hail and flash flooding. Northeast winds, very warm to hot and humid.

Lismore: 30

Ballina: 30

Bring it on rainfalls please!

[Supercell Hunters]

Excellent gusty storms and monsoonal showers since the 8th! Over 29mm from monsoonal showers last night sums up 67mm for December rainfall. Bring it sum more right now!

[Cookie]

great picturer mate

[Supercell Hunters]

Showers and thunderstorms in afternoon/evening, very warm to hot and humid with northeast winds.

Lismore: 32

Ballina: 31

However, severe windshear at mid to low levels may lead to damaging winds around 65knots across northeast corner today. Small hail are likely but not be expected to be large due to warmer levels in mid and upper. Rainfalls will be fairly heavy due to high moisture. Possibility of supercells at 50%.

GFS predicted 55mm + for us today from storms, hopefully it will! Really much need rain for a day. Sparking hot now.

Monsoon is onsetting during tomorrow or Tuesday across Nth Australia due to satellite saturation.

[Supercell Hunters]

27 storms so far this season according the my data base. Over 70mm of rain for December and still counting from this rain event developing this arvo with some heavy falls and strong wind gusts. Scattered showers forecasted for the Christmas and New Year period. Gotta be wet January coming up! Bring it on 2008 rains!

[Supercell Hunters]

GFS has been hinted for last few days, showing massive monsoonal like falls along east coast of S QLD and N NSW.

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?regi...us&days=7.5

Yesterday afternoon, no one has noticed saw the rotating in the subcontential convergence in CS, once it is now very clearly visible on satellite.

Here: http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat.html?...=&stop=#nav

Looks like going to be a nasty system for new year period ahead. GFS models showing it going near the coast with severe winds and flooding rains (hence the large amount of rain and tight isobars.

EC model showing the hint of landfall in SEQLD and NE NSW in period while another one in WA aswell at same time!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...!!step/

I think this is the start of actual storm cyclone season for Australia.