Hurricane Dean

[Iceberg]

Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast/Advisory

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000

WTNT24 KNHC 131450

TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

1500 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 31.6W AT 13/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 31.6W AT 13/1500Z

AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 30.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.0N 34.3W

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.9N 38.0W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 11.9N 41.4W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 11.9N 44.7W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.0N 51.0W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 57.5W

MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 16.0N 63.5W

MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 31.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Dvorak rating has gone upto 2.0

This is expected to me a TS (Dean) in the next 12 hours, maybe in the next advisory.

[Somerset Squall]

The latest discussion takes the storm to a cat 2 hurricane in 120 hrs, and maybe a major hurricane after that.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS REVEALS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN

TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEEP

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...BUT IT IS

MOSTLY CONFINED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE

EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0723Z THIS MORNING

ONLY CAPTURED THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS

INDICATES SOME BELIEVABLE 30-KT WINDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

BASED ON THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AT 12Z WERE 25-30 KT...ALTHOUGH THE

DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAVE DECREASED SINCE 12Z. THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THIS

MORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/18...BUT MORE

RECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MIGHT BE

EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION. WITH THE

DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND

BUILD WESTWARD...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MIGHT

PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE TRACK SHOULD BE GENERALLY

WESTWARD AND FAIRLY BRISK. A VERY GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AND A

SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON DAY THREE AS

THE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK

IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND GFS.

THE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN

THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE A STRONG REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE ITSELF...FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND

NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMBINED WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR

STEADY STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS

GUIDANCE FORECASTS NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE

GFDL FORECAST INTENSITY EXCEEDS 100 KT AT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST THREE

DAYS...THEN INDICATES A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE...BUT IS NOT AS

AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT LONG RANGES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 12.0N 31.6W 30 KT

12HR VT 14/0000Z 12.0N 34.3W 35 KT

24HR VT 14/1200Z 11.9N 38.0W 40 KT

36HR VT 15/0000Z 11.9N 41.4W 45 KT

48HR VT 15/1200Z 11.9N 44.7W 50 KT

72HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 51.0W 60 KT

96HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 57.5W 75 KT

120HR VT 18/1200Z 16.0N 63.5W 90 KT

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Iceberg]

Plot of official path and intensity.

[Iceberg]

He's struggling a bit atm to be honest. Path's are edging north a touch as well, hinting at an East Coast Hit.

[tinybill]

He's struggling a bit atm to be honest. Path's are edging north a touch as well, hinting at an East Coast Hit.

here what the 2 programs i got are saying

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height13

Caribbean island right in line for this one then on to the gom

Edited August 13, 2007 by tinybill

[kold weather]

Well as suspected the NHC upgraded Invest 90L into tropical depression 4. based on the LLC being underneath the area of convection, be it only just underneath. It is started at 35mph, probably based on both quikscat and also the strong convectibve burst, which should be noted are still ongoing even during the diurnal minimum, something 99L couldn't do til lthe west Caribbean.

Anyway in terms of its structure right now, the circulation is looking a little elongated right now thanks to the foward speed however thats to be expected. The convection appears to be not a problem right now with plenty of firing up of new cells occuring even under the diurnal minimum howevr its looking rather war torn right now I have to say. The problem is the combo of easterly shear and the foward speed. The foward speed is probably helping to elongate the center a touch and much faster and it'll have a hard time of keeping that circulation going at lower levels. The easterly shear is also still a problem as you can see all the cloudtops are being sheared away to the west and the LLC looks exposed again close to 32W and until that easterly shear dies down then its not going to get much stronger then it is now.

Still the further west it gets the less the shear should be a problem and so expect a good strengthening phase to occur probably throughWednesday but maybe a little sooner given its foward speed. Any development over the next 12-24hrs will be slow though IMO but I think it may become a TS in that time.

Models are proving to be extremely interesting right now. Numerous numbers of them have adjusted well north again, a sort of mix between the early and later tracks. Now quite why they have shifted the system northwards for is interesting, it may wlel be related to the northerly shift of invest 91L and also most models didnt form it and thus if it does form it may well create a weakness around day 4-6, which is when the models take the system more northwards. Quite how strong the weakness becomes depend son the strength of 91L and its exact track and interaction with the jet. We shouldn't however under-estimate the strength of the high and I do sort of fear a track that have it heading WNW towards the weakness only for the weakness to be sealed off and forcing it back westwards.

Saying all that the GFDL and the GFS both have shifted way north, indeed the GFS has gone from S.Texas to about 300 miles south of New York. That sort of shift is simply not realistic and while a shift northwards may be the most liekly thing both in this case and historically the GFS may well have become trigger happy in terms of developing shortwaves and keeping the weakness open for way too long. UKMO has also shifted northwards and skims the leeward Islands to the north witha new high forming to its north...

Either way the models do seem to indicate some strong development occuring around 60W where the heat content increases, indeed the NHC takes it upto 90kts which may be a touch high but its certainly not out of the question if shear ease and the system slows a touch. Finally it'll be interesting to see if the NHC adjusts there track any further north based on the higher latitude based on the models or if they keep the track where it is.

IMO Georges type track is stil la very real possiblity, maybe a touch further north/south but generally close, if it heads north then it could prove very bad for Florida, if it takes the Georges track the Islands get hit pretty hard.

Edited August 13, 2007 by kold weather

[tinybill]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...?large#contents

[crimsone]

no real change in the storm as yet from the latest advisory, but the track looks to have been adjusted north... aiming for a hit somewhere in the lower half of the eastern seaboard.

Edited August 13, 2007 by crimsone

[Iceberg]

He's still be ravaged by the shear atm, although convection is still staying around the centre, Dvorak and Quikscat still indicate 35Kt at absolute max so new increase in intensity is expected in the short term.

The signs are still there that development will be quick when conditions allow later Wed.

The path has been adjusted north again, There are still a wide variety of solutions for landfall. GFS doesn't allow landfall until NY City !. Others allow landfall in Florida and still possibly an entry into the GOM.

He does seem to be staying south of the NHC official track at the moment though.

I am not sure why ECM failed to prog this thing again, It has the ability for manual prog, which should be happening, the only thing I can think is that Shear is instantly killing the system when they do this....

[Iceberg]

Thought I'd also post up the GFDL, which takes him to a CAT 4.

GFDL is a GFS fed product so it will normally contain the same ridge weaknesses as GFS, METO is keen to take it almost due west, so the turn north is nowhere near a guarantee yet !.

[kold weather]

Convection is still plentiful right now however as Iceberg says there is some easterly shear still present with it and so I don't want too comment on the structure till we can see the vis.sat images because there is a fair chance the LLC is still exposed somewhat on that eastern mass of convection. So I'll leave that for another post later today.

Anyway 0z models are seemingly wanting to take the system further north as a weakness forms around 60W. The GFS keeps this weakness open just long eonugh to let the system gain some decent latitude however I don't think the weakness is gonig to be quite as noteable as expected by the models knowing that in the longer term the GFS has habits of over-plunging upper troughs which is the key reasdon why the GFs takes the system northwards. The UKMO is far flatter to the west and into the Caribbean though basded on the models so far this morning most do go for the NW turn.

The issue however is if the GFS based outputs are overdoing the trough then it'll also be overdoing the turn to the NW which I believe may be the case. I suspect given the agreement and the synotpic set-up some turn to the north west is likely but the question is to what degree. This question is of course a vital issue for those in the Caribbean right now. GFS eventually takes it into the Carolinas as a hefty hurricane.

GFS is like hugo all over again in terms of track...

ECM recurves just before it hits Florida by the way, I suspect it may be slughtly underosding the high pressure to its north however by that point.

Forecast for strength looks as suggested last night, slow strengthening over the next 24-36hrs then stronger development tomorrow as it hits the by that point ever increaasing heat content. It probably isn't far away from Dean now but the LLC position is a key uncertainty right now. Beyond Wednesday and shear is forecasted to die down and the upper high is forecast to slacken just a touch as well. This combined with higher heat content suggests strengthening to become a little more noteable tomorrow.

Edited August 14, 2007 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Update---Quikscat places a strong LLC around 37.5W which is pretty close to where the strongest convection is right now and if this is the case then that answers y question from earlier and may well be an indication shear is easing a touch. Also quikscat shows several 30-40kt barbs which would indicate that we may well have tropical storm Dean.

Also while here the 06z GFS has a powerful hurricane hit PR then onto eastern parts of DR before it heads towards the weakness present in the Atlantic though this weakness only allows for a WNW movement which it moves about 50-100 miles off the Cuban shore before hitting Miami region as a powerful hurricane. It only at this point that another upper trough tries to move through does the system head more to the NW.

[Iceberg]

The Direction of this one is going be a real problem. It seems that the more developed it is the more northerly the hit.

QuikScat does show some 40-45KT winds but these seem to be in the SW Quad which should be the weakest and also they have a few rain contaminated barbs in there, so I'd possibly be tempted to discount these and keep the estimate at between 30-35KT, probably keeping the system short of a TS by the 4.00pm update.

Shear does seem to be easing a bit and the ability of the system is keep the LLCC centre covered and generating indicates a very well set up storm. I really think this will be a CAT by the End of Thursday.

[kold weather]

It does seem a strange place to see such high values, esp given the foward speed however there is some very strong convection present just t othe south of the convection and while some of them are no doubt rain contaminated it wouldn't be that surprising to see that some of the lower 35-40kts may be correct. Even on the northern side the high resolution Quikscat we are now upto 30kts. However while its odd its not unheard off and this sort of lop-sided sort of system tends to occur when a powerful high is to the north, a great example is hurricane Katrina when it hit Florida, the strongest winds were all in the SW qaudrant!

I agree by the way about the strength, I think faster devlopment will occur from about 50-55W which is where the heat content really starts to ramp up and the shear should hopefully have eased nicely by then. In recent years some very powerful hurricanes have passed close to where its forecasted to track (at least upto 50-60W), Luis in 1995, Hurricane Edouard in 1996, Hurricane Erika from 1997, Hurricane Georges during 1998, Hurricane Floyd...i suppose you get the point I'm making, bar the W.Caribbean and the Gulf the area the models are forecasting it to head into are some of the more favorable parts of the Atlantic...therefore its hardly surprisng that the new GFDL and the HWRF are gonig for extremely powerful hurricanes heading towards the Leeward isles.

[Iceberg]

A quick update Dvorak has increased to 2.5(see below)

2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb

A 2.5 does support a TS, but I still don't see an update in the next advisory.

Matt

[kold weather]

Yep Iceberg they are holding at 30kts..which i have to admit I think may be underdoing it a little given Dvorak+Quikscat both support 35kts right now though not sure whether the Dvorak rating will have come out in time before the models were ran at 30kts. If it stays like it is now it'll probably be upgraded next time round i suspect, I suspect they are also waiting to see if convection remians solid and may yet even wait for the next Quikscat unless all the Dvorak agancies agree on TS strength winds.

Also worth noting the models take it upto 90kts by 120hrs passing just north of PR/DR, if a ridge builds in once it gets upto 20-22N then Florida is in real trouble:

134

WHXX01 KWBC 141248

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1248 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

070814 1200 070815 0000 070815 1200 070816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.0N 38.6W 12.5N 41.4W 12.6N 44.9W 12.8N 48.6W

BAMD 12.0N 38.6W 12.2N 41.8W 12.3N 45.1W 12.6N 48.6W

BAMM 12.0N 38.6W 12.2N 41.9W 12.2N 45.7W 12.2N 49.5W

LBAR 12.0N 38.6W 12.1N 42.6W 12.3N 47.2W 12.8N 51.9W

SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 44KTS

DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

070816 1200 070817 1200 070818 1200 070819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.9N 52.7W 13.8N 60.2W 15.2N 65.0W 19.3N 68.5W

BAMD 13.1N 51.9W 14.4N 57.4W 17.2N 62.8W 21.0N 68.0W

BAMM 12.3N 53.4W 12.5N 59.5W 14.7N 63.5W 19.6N 67.7W

LBAR 12.9N 56.6W 11.5N 63.4W 16.4N 64.7W .0N .0W

SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 83KTS 90KTS

DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 83KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 38.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 21KT

LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 34.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 30.7W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

NNNN

Edited August 14, 2007 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Actually forget that last post, looks like I was right about the new data not being in the hands of the NHC before they ran the models but the NRL site has listed Dean:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Its not compeltely offical yet however unti lthe NHC says it is BUT with all the evidence that does support a tropical storm plus the fact its up on the usually dependable NRL site does make it very likely we have our 4th tropcial storm of the hurricane season!

I'll change the title when its offical.

HWRF on its 06z run gets down to 920mbs by the way just south of PR, very close if not a cat-5 according to that model!!!

All other models the NHc use bar the AVNI reach 90kts by 120hrs.

Edited August 14, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Looks like a Dean is a dead cert in about 30 mins or so.

GFDL explodes it as well into a CAT 4 on the 06Z run.

Hopefully soon we will be talking about Eye Wall Temp differentials, ERC's and stadium effects.....

A Hurricane on Thursday looks a very good possibility.

[kold weather]

Those two models take it very close to the tracks of some powerful systems, hugo and Georges to name two and no doubt there ar eplenty more. The HWRF is pretty shocking though as youd be looking at a high end cat-4/5 hitting PR with full force. The thing is though the models are forecasting an upper high to build very close by to the system which should protect it from any shear and that has been the reasoning behind my cal lfor strong development from Wednesday onwards. FWIW i agree about the hurricane call, probably between the next 48-60hrs IMO with a lot of that being in the latter half. Heat content is also increasing and by the time you reach 55-60W under favorable atmopsheric condtions you could easily see a major hurricane. Maybe a touch early to talk aobut that yet but its on is way now with this upgrade.

Shear is still present but signs its relaxing and also shifting wit hthe system now lop-sided on its southern side. Still if the shear has swang to a more northerly direction then that may be a sign that shear is going to ease down soon as it passes through further west and if this is right shear should relax in aobut 12-18hrs.

[Iceberg]

SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE

THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT

THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY

INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER

THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST

AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND

SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY

SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE

WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.

This could really be a problem for PR. Have to say it's a very weak CDO atm and I am a bit surprised they've mentioned one.

[Iceberg]

A nice Visual Shot, showing the very good underlying structure.

[kold weather]

Yep it could well be a problem, can't rule out a DR/Haiti hit either given the distance Dean is at right now from any type of landfall even small adjustments to the generally direction could make a couple of hundred miles difference in 5-7 days time, esp at the speed its going at.

As for the CDO, I do think given the way the convection has constantly flared up right on top of the LLC and the way its starting to wrap all the convection on its southern side around the center it is a CDO, though given the heat content thats not really that surprisng, it should become a better defined CDO tomorrow I suspect as heat content starts to increase and the shear eases off. Very lop-sided right now as well by the way, all the main convection is on the southern side with shear still present though with the convection over the center signs shear is starting to reduce. Still this sort of lop-sided system is to be expected, as I mentioned earlier when you have a powerful high to the north the convection tends to develop on the southern side, like I said that was the case with Katrina when it dived WSW. The subsidence that is on the southern side of the strong Azores high is helping to limit the convection but as the heat content rises this becomes a lesser an dlesse rissue, esp as the high weakens a touch.

(note- nice image Iceberg, show the lop-sided Dean quite nicely!)

(ps, will add an update once the 12z GFS track comes out.)

12z GFS takes it further south thorugh the caribbean hitting Haiti before moving just south of Cuba along the coast tracking WNw evnetually crossing into the gulf before hitting Texas. GFS flip-floping all over the place right now, won' be till recon samples the region around it that we will get a better idea of its eventually track, suffice to say a general W direction over the next 3-4 days is likely. Also worth noting this is already the best looking system of the year, lok at the structue, it already has that banded looked with the convection wrapping around the center.

Edited August 14, 2007 by kold weather

[tinybill]

Yep it could well be a problem, can't rule out a DR/Haiti hit either given the distance Dean is at right now from any type of landfall even small adjustments to the generally direction could make a couple of hundred miles difference in 5-7 days time, esp at the speed its going at.

As for the COD, I do think given the way the convection has constantly flared up right on top of the LC and the way its starting to wrap all the convection on its southern side around the center it is a COD, though given the heat content thats not really that surprising, it should become a better defined COD tomorrow I suspect as heat content starts to increase and the shear eases off. Very lop-sided right now as well by the way, all the main convection is on the southern side with shear still present though with the convection over the center signs shear is starting to reduce. Still this sort of lop-sided system is to be expected, as I mentioned earlier when you have a powerful high to the north the convection tends to develop on the southern side, like I said that was the case with Katrina when it dived WSW. The subsidence that is on the southern side of the strong Azores high is helping to limit the convection but as the heat content rises this becomes a lesser an dales reissue, esp as the high weakens a touch.

(note- nice image Iceberg, show the lop-sided Dean quite nicely!)

(PS, will add an update once the Z GFS track comes out.)

Z GFS takes it further south through the Caribbean hitting Haiti before moving just south of Cuba along the coast tracking WNW eventually crossing into the gulf before hitting Texas. GFS flip-flopping all over the place right now, won' be till reckon samples the region around it that we will get a better idea of its eventually track, suffice to say a general W direction over the next 3-4 days is likely. Also worth noting this is already the best looking system of the year, Lock at the structure, it already has that banded looked with the convection wrapping around the center.

it seems dean heading right to Floria keys now

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height13

[Iceberg]

Not looking good atm, shear is still taking it's toll on the north of Dean, this now has the added complication that dry air is creeping in and killing precip off. It needs to mix out of the dry as soon as possible.

ATM Dean is bearly a TS.

[Cookie]

do you think it will intensify again?