Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hurricane Dean


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Yes KW... that's the one :o ... of course the comparison I was trying to make is that damage from Dean should be far less than that wrought by Wilma on Cancun. I hadn't realised that she had weakened before stalling there though.... thanks!

Actually, that's the second Wilma thought I've had today. I do hope I'm not the type of person that gets premonitions! (nope, it's impossible... I can't possibly see a system doing that again in my lifetime!)

(regards to recon: it looks like it'll be 6-hourly... though I can't see a schedule ofr 0600z, tomorrows plan certainly goes for 1200, 1800 and 0000 again... good news... that will help a lot methinks)

Edited by crimsone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Its funny you mention Wilma though because the heat content in that region is nearly as high as 2005. Dean is not the same as it should be a good deal larger in terms of wind radii and it may not be quite as strong as Wilma we should not under-estimate the possiblity that Dean will be a cat-4 and maybe even cat-5 at one point in its life, most likely in the western Caribbean a little before landfall.

Indeed eventhe normally conservative NHC are going upto 120kts before landfalll in the Yucatan, mid-level cat-4:

post-1211-1187277244_thumb.png

As tcc said himself, best chance is for it to miss to the north, thats waht Allen did on a very similar track and synoptic set-up, hopefluly mind you it won't hit the Lesser Antilles with quite the same sort of strength...it hit as a low end cat-4!

(Iceberg, yep i agree looks cat-2, certain sat.estimates already have it at 85kts which is not beyond the realms of belief and wil probably be upgraded to a cat-2 as long as recon can justify it, i don't think they will upgrade till recon can confirm it and indeed recon mind find it a touch stronger then I expect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

The pressure drop in the last 6 hours between advisories is really quite impressive - not exactly a record, but impressive none the less....

0300 UTC - 991 mb

0900 UTC - 987 mb

1500 UTC - 979 mb

over the last 6 hours that makes it an average of a 1 and a third mb drop per hour... does that qualify as a tropical bomb?(no... not yet... let's wait another 18 hours lol... getting ahead of myself I think! :o .) It certainly qualifies the storm as something to think about!

Edited by crimsone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

If it can keep up that sort of deepening rate then it probably would be termed as such a thing i suppose.

Dean center has weakened just a touch since 12pm as a little dry air has become entrained into the southern side of the circulation and the eye has breifly weakened again. Given the current set-up this system has I suspect this will be a breif stalling in its strengthening phase but I think that it shouldn't be al lthat much of a trouble, with a strong established hurricane now the dry air will get mixed out over the next 2-3hrs and be replaced by more convection.

Also its structure is mighty impressive right now with very clear banding still evident.

Once the dry air is mixed out again this system is going to start bombing again, I'm think 105-110mph by 09.00 tomorrow our time and cat-3 over the Lesser Antilles. Lets see how this goes!

i feel so sorry for those in the middle Islands of the Lesser Antilles, esp Martinique.

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

absolutely... do they have a warning out yet?

The way things are going, I'm startiing to feel a little sorry for the jamaicans too. Even if they don't get hit directly, the odds seem to favour it getting very close. Have they even finished cleaning up from the last one yet?

Edited by crimsone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I think Dean is just restructuring, got upto a CAT 2 in short order and needs to mature a bit to go upto a CAT 4 by tomorrow evening.

What we are seeing are two good outflows becoming established one at 340 degrees and another at 140.

Dean is also expanding probably more than you would expect(wind radius wise) for such a new hurricane, again not good news for those in the line of fire.

We now have our Dean obs starting to come in....

000

URNT11 KNHC 161539

97779 15384 50172 62200 71900 11028 67691 /5764

RMK AF304 0104A DEAN OB 01

Edited by Iceberg
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Recon currently over the antilles then. :o

edit:... soo, what does it mean when recon leave a remark such as "SWS 021KTS" in their data message as they just did in their second observation?

Edited by crimsone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Hurricane DEAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Martinique

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

St. Lucia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Some very respectable winds being found so far

AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 16 20070816

171600 1412N 05613W 6965 03140 0030 +090 +090 059048 050 041 005 01

171630 1411N 05612W 6965 03135 0020 +097 +097 057048 049 046 007 00

171700 1410N 05611W 6968 03133 0020 +096 +096 056049 051 043 006 03

171730 1409N 05609W 6968 03129 0022 +092 +092 057049 052 045 006 00

171800 1408N 05608W 6967 03130 0020 +095 +083 052052 053 048 007 00

171830 1408N 05607W 6970 03125 0015 +100 +070 054052 053 047 007 00

171900 1407N 05605W 6964 03129 0009 +101 +081 052051 052 047 007 00

171930 1407N 05604W 6963 03129 0000 +106 +080 050053 053 046 007 00

172000 1406N 05602W 6969 03117 0004 +097 +091 053053 054 046 006 00

172030 1405N 05601W 6967 03119 0008 +094 +088 059049 051 046 006 00

172100 1405N 05559W 6967 03117 0009 +093 +081 063043 045 046 006 00

172130 1404N 05558W 6966 03117 0013 +084 +084 060043 045 047 006 01

172200 1404N 05556W 6966 03115 9990 +073 +999 061045 047 049 007 01

172230 1403N 05555W 6965 03113 0006 +087 +087 062046 047 049 007 01

172300 1402N 05554W 6967 03111 0005 +089 +088 063045 046 049 006 00

172330 1402N 05552W 6967 03108 9990 +082 +999 061043 043 049 007 01

172400 1401N 05551W 6964 03109 9990 +087 +999 059043 044 048 008 05

172430 1401N 05549W 6963 03107 0001 +087 +082 058043 044 048 008 00

172500 1400N 05548W 6967 03100 9992 +092 +070 057044 044 047 007 00

172530 1400N 05546W 6963 03100 9980 +099 +070 056045 047 046 007 00

A very large windfield

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Recon is just approaching the storm now... here are the positions for obs 1, 2 and three... (using a very painful way of plotting the positions! if anybody knows an easier way do let me know!)

post-4339-1187285448_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Sorry new set of obs !

**Pressure 969mb so Dean is really revving up **

Winds upto 80Kt recorded so far but likely to be 90+ so a def CAT 3.

Eye very much evident.

000

URNT15 KNHC 161734

AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 17 20070816

172600 1359N 05545W 6969 03089 9976 +098 +070 056048 049 048 007 00

172630 1358N 05543W 6970 03081 9960 +105 +070 055053 054 049 007 00

172700 1358N 05542W 6964 03084 9953 +106 +070 055054 056 047 007 00

172730 1357N 05540W 6961 03079 9928 +120 +070 052056 057 047 006 00

172800 1357N 05539W 6961 03069 9918 +118 +070 049055 059 052 006 00

172830 1356N 05537W 6970 03045 9903 +119 +070 052061 062 055 007 00

172900 1356N 05536W 6966 03035 9877 +128 +070 047065 068 058 006 00

172930 1355N 05535W 6960 03033 9857 +136 +070 048067 074 066 032 03

173000 1355N 05533W 6974 02995 9831 +138 +070 046070 072 074 020 00

173030 1354N 05532W 6956 02993 9771 +167 +070 043069 075 077 021 00

173100 1353N 05530W 6970 02942 9709 +195 +070 046056 061 078 023 00

173130 1353N 05529W 6966 02933 9707 +180 +070 068042 045 069 045 03

173200 1352N 05527W 6965 02922 9691 +184 +070 091028 034 045 007 03

173230 1351N 05527W 6975 02906 9691 +178 +070 088024 028 999 999 03

173300 1349N 05527W 6963 02920 9724 +149 +070 086007 015 018 007 03

173330 1347N 05526W 6954 02950 9714 +181 +070 251031 043 043 007 03

173400 1346N 05525W 6955 02977 9765 +161 +070 237060 076 056 006 03

173430 1345N 05523W 6973 02985 9863 +108 +067 212075 080 066 010 03

173500 1345N 05521W 6975 03015 9917 +081 +070 199075 078 067 012 03

173530 1344N 05520W 6975 03029 9945 +074 +070 196069 069 060 044 03

$$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

the point dean should hit land at the moment is a place called Cozumel in Mexico, just watched fox news weather dean should be a cat 4 by the time it hits land for the first time

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

Edited by tinybill
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Vortex Data Message

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000

URNT12 KNHC 161811

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007

A. 16/17:33:00Z

B. 13 deg 49 min N

055 deg 27 min W

C. NA mb 2877 m

D. 78 kt

E. 323 deg 005 nm

F. 044 deg 075 kt

G. 315 deg 006 nm

H. 974 mb

I. 14 C/ 3051 m

J. 19 C/ 3069 m

K. 7 C/ NA

L. OPEN W

M. E350/16/10

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0104A DEAN OB 05

MAX FL WIND 75 KT NW QUAD 17:30:40 Z

MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 320 / 6NM

The recon was NW to SE so didn't take any measurements, yet, from the stronger NE quad, although the eye is open on the west it's still fairly healthy for a new eye not 12 hours old.

A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER

INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST

MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST

ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Decoded vortexmessage for the lay people out there... (like me! :) )

...

Storm DEAN: Observed By AF #304

Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean1

Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 75KT (86.3mph 138.9km/h) In NW Quadrant At 17:30:40 Z

Estimated Max Surface Winds 67.5KT (77.6mph 125.0km/h) *

Misc Remarks: AX FL TEMP 21 C, 320 / 6NM

Date/Time of Recon Report: Thursday, August 16, 2007 6:33:00 PM (Thu, 16 Aug 2007 17:33:00 UTC)

Position of the center: 13° 49' N 055° 27' W (13.8°N 55.5°W) [See Map]

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 78 KT (89.7MPH 144.5km/h)

Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 005nm (5.75miles) From Center At Bearing 323°

Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 075KT (86.25mph 138.9km/h) From 044°

Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 006nm (6.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 315°

Minimum pressure: 974 mb (28.76in)

Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN W

Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Elliptical , E350/16/10

Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature

Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb

Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm

Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm

* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

Edited by crimsone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Latest GFDL shows a truely horrible site. A 160Kt super CAT 5 monster baring down onthe US coast.

I wouldn't argue with it at the moment either.

and the HWRF, lowest ever recorded pressure anyone.?!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

That somehow doesn't suprise me... That it bears down on the US coast would suprise me, but it's deepening quite rapidly now... Going back to the pressures I listed earlier... and now including the intermediate advisory from 50 minutes ago...

0300 UTC - 991 mb

0900 UTC - 987 mb

1500 UTC - 979 mb

1800 UTC - 970 mb

Between 9 and 3 (6 hours), it dropped 1 and a third mb per hour. Between 3 and 6 (3 hours), it's an average of 3 mb per hour...

...unless there have been some mistakes in the earlier pressures before recons reading... ...well, I could quite believe a possible Cat 5 monster along the line at such a rate.

Edit:(oh hell! I do hope that the HWRF doesn't prove right! ... maybe the Wilma comparisons aren't so extravagant after all! :) On the plus side though... even if they are right on intensity, getting a hurricane through the channel is like threading the eye of a needle... pretty much the only way any hurricane is going to maintain strength through there is to avoid the land... though the gulf loop would be another question. Lets just all hope that this is a hypothetical discussion!)

Edited by crimsone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'd agree with that! from a quick glimpse at things Dean is looking pretty perfect (in shape) so shear isn't being problematic and ,as it reaches shallower waters, sea temps will only get warmer from here on in. None of us wish for a heavy U.S. landfall but I'd think many folk over there will wish for it not to straffe the southern U.S. coast either with all those platforms and oil distilleries to disrupt (and they fear the lack of oil more than the odd home destroyed).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest GFDL shows a truely horrible site. A 160Kt super CAT 5 monster baring down onthe US coast.

I wouldn't argue with it at the moment either.

and the HWRF, lowest ever recorded pressure anyone.?!

Cat 5.... now where did I read that...... :)

S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

The Antilles are just about to start feeling the initial effects (image from an hour and a half ago)...

post-4339-1187293507_thumb.jpg

Somebody please give me a bit of a geography reminder... what's the name of the that island that's out to the east of all the others?... not the one right on the coast of the south american continent, but the one just below the middle of the "line" of islands, and just under one of Dean's outer bands. (got it... Barbados)

Edited by crimsone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...