Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hurricane Dean


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

HWRF seems to be predicting 905mbar and 132kt in 120 hours. Not sure on the accuracy of that though it's possible as it seems to be heading into the gulf. A bit worrying that they're also predicting that strength just as it's about to make landfall on the Yucutan.

Edited by Paranoid
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

It certainly is possible! If there are minimal dry air intrusions, minimal shear etc, there is plenty of energy ready to be tapped once Dean enters the warmer waters of the Gulf.

If he avoids the main Carribean island, it's definitely possible for this to be a CAT 5 by the time it hits the Yucatan/Gulf coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The HWRf is meant to be replacing GFDL from that I've heard eventually but for now we've got them running together which is cool. The main thing that will disrupt Dean if anything thing will be Hispaniola with its high mountions. If it comes too close then those high mountions will somewhat disrupt the CDO somewhat may lead to some slight weakening tohugh Dean's foward speed should prevent it from weakening too much, if at all.

Apart from the that honestly I don't see much that can weaken it. A long shot is for shear from the ULL heading westwards into the N.Gulf but even that is a long shot.

No reason why this won't be a very powerful hurricane in the western Caribbean, its running in th same general direction as two beasts in Allen and Gilbert and both went sub-900mbs. i'm not saying Dean will do the same but you can see why some models go to cat-5 and a powerful one at that and the heat cotent in the western Caribbean does support a system as powerful as some of the models are showing.

Also its worth looking at the GFDL, lets just say if that happens Galveston would be in trouble:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...6/tp6_126.shtml

Meanwhile HWRF still hits Yucatan as a cat-5 from the looks of the pressure:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...6/tp6_120.shtml

Dean could develop quite rapidly over the next 24hrs if it can continue to improve, a closed eyewall should mean the eye should become more noticeable over the next few hours I reckon. Jamacia and Haiti at most risk right now over the next 48hrs from Dean and if it does strengthen a lot it could be a very dangerous situation for those two places.

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

i've just realised that HWRF seems to show Cat 4 winds, albiet still around 150-155mph. Still, if it reaches 905mbar at that strength won't that be lowest pressure from a hurricane that never reached Cat 5? I think the record is currently held by Opal with 916mbar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Recon is finding some very high winds now around 100Kt, outside of the eye.

With the better sat rep this might well be updated to CAT 2 on the next advisory.

Dvorak has increased to 5.0 or about 90KT-100Kt

123230 1431N 06137W 6965 02978 9990 +058 +999 156096 099 075 045 01

123300 1430N 06138W 6951 02972 9823 +075 +075 163098 101 076 043 05

123330 1429N 06140W 6973 02929 9792 +103 +103 168095 097 086 034 00

Edited by Iceberg
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah I think it was probably Opal though I'll look into it.

Wilma was at one point a sub-900mbs cat-4 though it was going through a eyewall replacement cycle at the time and the surrounding atmosphere had very low pressure compared to normal.

I remember hearing from someone that you have to be cautious with the HWRF wind output because they made the winds lower because it was producing stupidly high wind speeds that weren't possible however looking at what its done I think they may have upped the frictional effects too much.

Anyway Dean continuing to look good. Appearently there has been some pretty severe damage in the island of St.Lucia that came from the hurricanes southern section, maybe even clipping its southern eyewall, almost every tree is down according to CNN.

By the way another solid sign that Dean is getting stronger is the Dvorak estimates which are now the highest this hurricane has been at 5.0:

17/1145 UTC 14.4N 61.7W T5.0/5.0 DEAN -- Atlantic Ocean

This suggests 90kt winds and a pressure of 970mbs which matches what was found by recon about an hour ago.

Finally Tcc, nearly every single model I've seen from the 06z including the GFS ensembles take it either over the Ne yucatan or indeed into the Yucatan channel...

Which is not a good trend for the USA either, esp Texas and maybe even W.LA on some of the more easterly runs which was struck by Rtia in 05.

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

124400 1425N 06154W 6965 02856 9652 +147 +115 306016 021 023 006 00

965mb found in the eye, so intensification is certainly underway.

I think a US landstrike is becoming increasing likely

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Iceberg, 101kts at flight level would equate to about 90kts at the surface, this strongly supports the Dvorak estimation and so the models have been started with winds of 90kts and so the winds will be upped to 105mph come the next advisory, not really surprising its gone up given the eyewall was found to be closed off.

Small eye starting to emerge again on Vis. satellite. If that eye can further rid the cloud in its center we could well have a major hurricane by the end of tonight. It was interrupted last night by dry air and weak shear but that doesn't look an issue now. Looking good though right now.

As you say Iceberg a US strike looking ever more likely given the models from the 06z runs, Texas must be extremely alert and ready for a major hurricane IMO.

The SHIP models take Dean upto major hurricane status in 24hrs time though its near enough to that by 12hrs time and given the current strengthening you can't argue with it. (SHIPS also take sit upto 145mph before Yucatan landfall!)

Now awaiting vortex to see if the pressure is as deep as recon suspected it was, as recon found a central pressure on its last run through of 963mbs which is slightly hard to believe but if its true then its rapidly intensifying right now given the last vortex message was 970mbs!

will see what its like very soon.

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liversedge, West Yorkshire ASL : 74m
  • Location: Liversedge, West Yorkshire ASL : 74m

Hurricane Dean certainly looks to be forming into a huge storm. Just looked at the National Hurricane website - looks like Jamaica is going to take a pounding during Sunday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...l?5day#contents

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

New vortex has just come through, central pressure was found to be 965mbs confirmed which means a 5mbs drop from the last vortex, tohugh in truth they probably didn't hit the lowest pressure last run round it has to be said Dean is undergoing some decent intensification with probably a 4mb drop in 2hrs. This only backs up the idea that we will have a major hurricane before the night is out, that eye is clearing very nicely now, would not rule out a high end cat-3/low end-4 by early morning tomorrow, should be interesting couple of hours though, eyewall looks great and though open on the western side I think its currently in the process of fully closing its eyewall off right now. Outflow and inflow look great, eye is forming nicely and you can tell this is a healthy ssytem by how readily its dropping its central pressure over the last few hours when condtions improve, must say i'm a touch surprised its gotten going so quickly though...a very bad sign indeed for those in the path of Dean, could well cause a lot of landslides over Haiti before slam-dunking Jamacia on Sunday.

Forward speed is also now decreasing as the ridge to its north just ease off a touch as the ULL over Florida starts to head westwards towards the gulf and is forecasted by the models to continue to slow down to about 16-18mph from its current 23mph which will allow a longer time over the really high heat content in the central Caribbean and western Caribbean. The more I look at the track and the way its developing the more I think this could become a future cat-5. Its exact strength when it hits Jamacia will depend exactly how whether there is any land interaction with Haiti, if there is then probably a cat-3 hit, if there isn't....

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

At risk of duplication, sorry.

URNT12 KNHC 171307

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007

A. 17/12:36:30Z

B. 14 deg 26 min N

061 deg 49 min W

C. NA mb 2808 m

D. 102 kt

E. 073 deg 009 nm

F. 162 deg 100 kt

G. 073 deg 012 nm

H. 965 mb

I. 6 C/ 3060 m

J. 17 C/ 3047 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. OPEN W

M. C17

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 11

MAX FL WIND 100 KT E QUAD 12:33:00 Z

Open Eye Wall, pressure of 965 confirmed so intensification is underway.

100Kt Flight winds as you say leading to 90Kt surface intensity

I knew it would happen :( .

A daylight visual, not too pretty, but clear on his intent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Nearly al lthe models from the 06z runs now have Dean hitting the NE Yucatan then heading into the gulf. The Statistical models keep it WNW towards Mexico/Texas. However the dynamic models such as the GFS and the GFDL seem to be further north after the first hit, indeed the GFS ensembles on the 06z run show nearly every single run bar maybe 1-2 of them hitting Texas though they are still fairly scattered. The models don't look good for Texas...and they look disasterous for Jamaica which is hit by every single model run.

A better image of Dean IMO Iceberg id this one, shows that its got the classic hurricane structure and also shows the eye is trying toclear out though its still not quite there yet, its got very deep pressure for a system without an eye which is another classic sign that this system is going tobe a very deep system in the future and an exceedingly powerful system and with a deep pressure, how deep is in the lap of the gods right now though the heat content suggests this could go into some pretty impressive ranges. Anyway here's Dean:

post-1211-1187358565_thumb.jpg

(ps, by the way GFDL has Dean a cat-5 from Late Sunday through to Wednesday with only dropping down to cat-4 once while over Jamaica!!!

can't be long before the NHC mention the possiblity of a category-5 hurricane in the discussions.)

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

A bunch of 962mb pressure readings just reported around the eye, so intensification is continuing.

141630 1434N 06222W 6977 02834 9629 +166 +098 128006 008 024 006 03

141700 1434N 06223W 6946 02869 9626 +163 +114 277008 017 034 000 03

141730 1433N 06225W 6960 02867 9626 +174 +112 300032 044 030 006 00

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Latest Advisory hasn't added too much, interesting track, giving cancun and Jamica direct hits and hinting heavily at a Texas strike.

Expected to conservatively intensifty to a CAT 4.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

HWRF now saying that in 108 hours Dean's pressure may drop to 900.4mbar. Winds seem to have been scaled down though to around 127 kts. GFDL is saying max winds at 35m could reach 163kts, that probably equates to 10m winds of around 155-170mph.

Edited by Paranoid
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Dean still looking pretty good with the eye still trying to emerge. I have notred however the western semicircle of Dean looks somewhat weaker compared to a few hours ago. Its nothing major but the hurricane does look a touch more ragged and so I can only assume that the westerly shear has slightly increased again. I don't think that will be a long lived thing if that is the case however if the truth be known I could be making something out of nothing afterall we are in the diurnal minimum. So on the one hand Dean's inner core looks better then it has ever done but on the other hand the outer parts of the hurricane are looking more ragged recently.

Also i'm not sure whether some upper level dry air has gotten into the circulation, the eastern side has less convection between the outflow and the eyewall which isn't wht you'd expect from a developing system. don't be surprised if at least in the next 6-12hrs if Dean weakens a touch from where it is currently

Anyway as Iceberg has said latest advisory from the NHC has been issued, Dean is upper to 90kts which is closing in on major status. I suspect it still has a good chance to do it during the diurnal max in the early hours of tomorrow morning after hopefluly its sorted out its current problems, that will be when its most likely to do so as it slows down more and more down to about 17mph and it gains latitude as it heads north of west around 275-280.

Track at the moment will take Dean rather close to Haiti and it high hurricane killer mountions. While it doesn't appear that Dean will go over these its northern semicircle of convection could become sopmewhat disrupted and that would put a hold on development till it heads south of the Mona passage. Each of the model runs I've seen today has put Dean further and further to the north. hurricane warnings are going to be needed for Haiti before the night is out i think.

Beyond that and very high heat content plus a pretty impressive atmosphere could well lead to this become a monsterous hurricane and Dean has a shot at joining the legandary cat-5 clud which only a select few make.

Even the usually conservative NHC are calling for a rather impressive 130kts, in itself is a high end cat-4 with 150mph winds. Given the NHC is usually conservative it would not be hard for Dean to get to cat-5 if it gets as strong as the NHC suspects. Still time for something to pop up but right now Dean does look it could be a beast and evn more so once it can get past Haiti.

By the way the 12z GFS has this system only a tiny fraction away from Haiti, hurricane warnins needed however to get there it travles NW between 12-24hrs and I'm not so sure if its going to head that far north in the short term even though other models such as the 06z UKMO key into the same feature.

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

For reference, A Map of TX and LA.

Both GFDL and METO have a CAT 5 Hit at Galveston and Houston.

Not a good place.

Some more impressive Recon indicating that intensification is still ongoing.

160130 1445N 06250W 6946 02849 9596 +173 +099 143038 045 051 005 00

160200 1446N 06249W 6957 02855 9632 +151 +123 144063 075 086 005 00

160230 1447N 06247W 6970 02865 9691 +126 +126 151093 100 096 009 00

160300 1448N 06246W 6935 02951 9757 +109 +109 151113 115 096 010 03

160330 1450N 06244W 6942 02988 9826 +089 +089 147103 105 096 046 00

Pressure down to 959.6 and flight winds upto 115 so just over 100Kt at surface, A CAT 3.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

So it is Iceberg, then once its confirmed they will no doubt the NHC will declare Dean category-3. Its strange but I think the winds are now catching up with a drops in pressure however the Sat. imagery to me suggests its not quite as healthy as before. now if it can get sub960mbs with a fairly unimpressive look to it (though grante dits still got an awesome structure) then that bodes well for it to become an extremely powerful hurricane later down the road.

I still think its going to weaken just a touch over the next 6-12hrs and unless it can pump in some new convection where its a bit flat right now then the system may weaken again.

Still for now no doubting that with those recon samples its a cat-3 and 959mbs would back it up nicely.

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

He seems to be going thru an ERC., as you say KW impressive for a system without a good eye to reach 100Kt, if the new bigger eye holds I can see more intensification as the eye shrinks again maybe to a sub 950.

000

URNT12 KNHC 171614

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007

A. 17/15:59:50Z

B. 14 deg 40 min N

062 deg 54 min W

C. NA mb 2787 m

D. 69 kt

E. 215 deg 006 nm

F. 307 deg 065 kt

G. 215 deg 005 nm

H. 963 mb

I. NA C/ 3040 m

J. 18 C/ 3027 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. CO17-32

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 22

MAX FL WIND 115 KT NE QUAD 16:03:00 Z

INNER EYE OPEN SW-S

Deans eye was/is now fully visible on sat.

Edited by Iceberg
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

More 115+Kt winds

Pressure down to 956 the larger eye is very evident on the below stats.

171600 1449N 06314W 6981 02787 9581 +168 +102 109029 032 032 005 03

171630 1448N 06315W 6973 02791 9569 +177 +091 112017 022 030 006 00

171700 1446N 06316W 6976 02789 9568 +179 +101 210004 007 020 005 03

171730 1444N 06316W 6973 02801 9567 +184 +101 261012 019 022 005 00

171800 1444N 06317W 6971 02819 9604 +169 +108 277020 029 021 006 03

171830 1445N 06319W 6975 02804 9591 +170 +108 297024 027 024 006 03

171900 1446N 06320W 6969 02806 9603 +166 +098 334019 024 024 006 03

171930 1447N 06321W 6983 02790 9578 +180 +094 017028 032 034 007 00

172000 1448N 06322W 6967 02819 9585 +178 +093 033036 039 044 006 00

172030 1450N 06323W 6980 02815 9612 +164 +109 040047 050 064 008 00

172100 1451N 06324W 6982 02821 9632 +151 +130 041058 062 097 010 00

172130 1452N 06325W 6970 02857 9657 +146 +140 042072 081 100 020 03

172200 1453N 06327W 6958 02894 9693 +125 +125 046079 081 099 021 00

172230 1454N 06328W 6983 02896 9756 +089 +089 051098 116 098 029 01

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Martinique

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

St. Lucia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Dominica

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Barbados

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Sorry if this is getting repetitive..

Even higher winds now flight winds upto 124Kt or around 110Kt surface, rapid intensification is underway, with winds to increase as they lag pressure falls still to come this might well be a 120Kt CAT 4 this evening.

171000 1506N 06313W 6969 03028 9916 +087 +087 103098 101 068 039 03

171030 1505N 06313W 6982 02996 9921 +071 +071 103101 102 071 047 03

171100 1504N 06313W 6970 02997 9906 +069 +069 100102 111 077 026 00

171130 1502N 06313W 6984 02964 9990 +072 +999 100106 109 078 034 01

171200 1501N 06313W 6960 02968 9990 +070 +999 105109 112 085 035 01

171230 1500N 06313W 6992 02911 9990 +066 +999 103109 111 100 038 01

171300 1459N 06313W 6982 02893 9808 +071 +071 101116 121 096 031 00

171330 1457N 06313W 6963 02889 9752 +089 +089 108116 124 098 036 03

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

if dean stays were it is its looking like george town could get a direct hit at the moment

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

after it gets in the bay of mexico its looks like its heading for browsville

Edited by tinybill
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...