Tropical Depression Erin

[crimsone]

We have TD5! Current forcast takes it to TS strength for a brief period by the 16th at midday UTC.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 150233

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007

1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 10PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR

THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT

OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST

OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 425

MILES...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 425

MILES...680 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE

WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF THE

DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST

BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR

TO MAKING LANDFALL.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ESTIMATED A

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES...EARLIER THIS

EVENING.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE

MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.9 N...91.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400

AM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Edited August 15, 2007 by crimsone

[Iceberg]

I think the route will really rule the intensity for this one, NHC take a fairly short route.

Well formed little thing too.

[kold weather]

Indeed Iceberg the track may well limit just how strong it gets but it still has a good 12-24hrs, system is moving NW, slightly further north then the models are currently showing and so that may give it an extra few hours over water.

Despite its short track its starting to fire up some really deep convection towards its center during the diurnal maximum and it really woludn't be to omuch of a strech to see tropical storm force winds in thqat convection. Still ther eis no real reason for the NHC to upgrade yet and they will probably wait for recon this afternoon to get a better indication of just how well organised the system is.

Effects will be mainly related to rain, plenty of moisture present could well lead to some flooding as Texas has so far seen quite a bit of rain this year. Wind effects probably won't be much different if its a TD/TS unless it relaly gets going over the next 12hrs, which is possible in a pretty decent atmospheric set-up and deecnt heat content (though that will start to decrease soon as it heads towardsmore shallow waters.) but generally expecting fialr y gusty winds with tropical storm force gusts but nothing too severe.

[Iceberg]

Now this is a proper CDO,Dean take note.

[kold weather]

Yep it does look like a CDO is forming over Td5 and if thats the case its got a good chance to rpaidly develop into a 50-60kt tropical storm IMO over the next 15-18hrs before landfall. I wouldn't be surprised to see recon find higher winds then the Sat.estimates suggests given the pwoerfulconvection present and I'll be surprised if sat.estimates don't indicate a TS by the next update. IMO recon will find a tropical storm and the NHC may have upgraded it by then anyway. Not certain but odds favor us having tropical storm Erin...maybe a forerunner to a bigger system in 10 days time???

[Somerset Squall]

The convection looks very impressive over TD5 at the moment, are we expecting an upgrade next advisory? It looks better than it did this morning.

[kold weather]

Recon can't find winds high enough to justify an upgrade to tropical storm, as amzing as that sounds the low level structure is a bit of a mess from the sounds of things with multiple centers reforming and trying to become the dominant one. That is what preventing any strengthening right now from taking place.

Recon has found 29kts but thats at flight level and not at surface.

Edited August 15, 2007 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks KW. So it still remains touch and go whether we will see Erin then.

[kold weather]

Spoke too soon, 44kts just found at flight level:

143300 2601N 09254W 9567 00462 0077 +259 +199 119042 044 999 999 03

Even using 80% reduction you still have 35kts which would make TD5 and a tropical storm.

Should expect an upgrade to 35kt tropical storm via an intermediate advisory. What do they call that SS, commentators curse I suppose!!!

[kold weather]

Yep now its offical, thread title has just been changed:

Statement as of 10:15 am CDT on August 15, 2007

data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Tropical

Depression Five in the Gulf of Mexico has reached tropical storm

strength and is now Tropical Storm Erin. A special advisory will

be issued within the hour.

end game still roughly the same as expected, gusty winds (max sustained winds could still yet get utpo 50-55mph but the main story will be the rainfall and the possible flooding, Erin is loaded with moisture as you can tell by the deep convection. Flooding is a very real possiblity.

[crimsone]

If that forecast track slips any further south, the center will be making landfall along the mexican border! (could play havoc with the fences!)

[kold weather]

Funily enough the system so far is running to the north of the forecast points, indeed landflal near Corpus Christi looks pretty close to the mark. mind you it doe shave to be noted that given the organisation of the lower levels of this system it could yet wobble quite a bit either to the north or south...though center has been constantly dragged off to the north over the last 24hrs (seemingly aganst its will at times!)

[summer blizzard]

It looks like landafall will be made within the next 24 hours, even with centre reformation, i am expecting landfall as a 50KT-55KT Tropical Storm (60mph-65mph).

It should be noted that we are now upto average, so any named storms forming between now and the end of August will put us above average again.

[tinybill]

It looks like landafall will be made within the next 24 hours, even with centre reformation, i am expecting landfall as a 50KT-55KT Tropical Storm (60mph-65mph).

It should be noted that we are now upto average, so any named storms forming between now and the end of August will put us above average again.

erin at the moment looks like its going to hit land just above brownsville this acc to my eye of the storm 3000 program

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height13

and dean looks like its heading for the same area

[kold weather]

Saying that though Tinybill the NHC have even said themsleves that they are going to have to start to move the warnings further upthe coast because its further north then expected. I expect this system will landflal rather closer to Corpus Christi then Brownsville. I also agree with SB about the strength, probably peaking around 50-55kts, kinda similar to tropical storm Charley from 1998 (no not the beast for 04, but the little Charley!)

Landfall should occur tomorrow afternoon/eveing our time and could well give some rather nasty flooding problems which I think wil lbe the main story with this system, though gusts of 45-55kts may be possible I'd guess if the thing strengthens as much I'd expect.

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm ERIN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Mexico

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Corpus Christi (27.7 N, 97.3 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Armstrong (26.9 N, 97.8 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

seems to have sprung up fast

[Roger J Smith]

You can follow the progress of Erin as it moves into the Corpus Christi area of Texas later today on this radar link:

www.weatherimages.org/radar/kcrp.shtml

As of 0730z the centre of the weak TS was located about 100 nm southeast of Corpus Christi. Landfall is likely near or just south of Corpus Christi about 15z. Winds will not be much of a factor with this storm, rainfall may be -- 8 to 12 inches are possible near the track for some time, then later on 4-7 inches in the San Antonio TX region. These rains will be falling on generally saturated ground so watch for some severe flooding in some places.

Edited August 16, 2007 by Roger J Smith

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm ERIN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

[kold weather]

Erin is still a mess at lower levls with no one dominant low pressure center it apepars at the moment with recon and the buoy data both showing different area of lowest pressure which either means the LLC is really wobbling around the broad circulation or the center keeps trying to reform in a different place. That probably is why Erin has not gotten any stronger since yesterday eveing and has held at 40mph. I suspect given its only got a short while now over water it won't get any stronger then it is right now given the center has reformed fairly close to the coast and should be heading inland over the next coupld of hours.

Main threat is still very heavy rains with some very deep convection still present close to the center, could easily see many places seeing between 7-10 inches and I wouldn't be all that surprised if somewhere sees upto 15 inches of rain from this ssytem overall. winds should be squally but nothing too noteable it appears right now, main risk from Erin is certainly the flooding which could be quite severe given how much rainfall Texas has seen so far this year.

[Cookie]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

733 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...ERIN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MADE LANDFALL

BETWEEN ROCKPORT AND LAMAR EARLIER THIS MORNING...

[kold weather]

Yep Erin has been downgraded, winds really not an issue right now however its the rainfall. Almosdt all the rainfall is to the north of the cente rof circulation and there is a huge amount of moisture present with lots of convective activity. Most of the heavy rain now moving on inland with the circulation heading NW and the convection following it. Still a real risk of flash flooding tohugh it doesn't seem too severe right now.

Ah well nice to see you Erin and a tease for the bigger fry to come over the next 30-45 days probably. 2nd USA landfall of the hurricane season so far, tropical storm Erin.

Edited August 16, 2007 by kold weather

[Cookie]

which was the first?

[crimsone]

Tropical Storm Barry.... It made landfall in Florida.

Edited August 16, 2007 by crimsone

[Cookie]

I missed that thread