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Autumn 2007 Forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
I don't pay any real attention to long range forecasts, take this years Met office forecast for this summer one of the hottest likely on record! what a load of rubbish, yes sometimes they do get it right like winter 05/06 (though even then it didn't quite turn out as cold as first anticipated)...

This summer is a real lesson too many who take long range forecasts as gospel......, the safe option for winter today will always be to forecast another mild one, just like a warm one for summer...

The Met Office did say that there was a 1 in 6 chance of seeing record breaking conditions such as 2003 or 2006, however THEY DID NOT SAT IT WOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD, only that it would be aboveraverage in terms of temperature and around average in terms of rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
I don't pay any real attention to long range forecasts, take this years Met office forecast for this summer one of the hottest likely on record! what a load of rubbish, yes sometimes they do get it right like winter 05/06 (though even then it didn't quite turn out as cold as first anticipated)...

This summer is a real lesson too many who take long range forecasts as gospel......, the safe option for winter today will always be to forecast another mild one, just like a warm one for summer...

Last winter was forecast to be colder and look what happened one of the most disppointing mildest winters ever mind you we did have our heaviest drier snowfall since 1987 :) but it turned wet in the end started off powdery(only lasted 4 days), and the heaviest snowfall otherwise since 1988 which was the worst winter as it was very wet snow yuck! all 1 foot of it causing all sorts of damage which lasted just a couple days.

Every winter is different and it`s hard to say at this long range what`ll happen it changes as you get to a closer timeframe so if it says very mild now it`ll say something else a weeks/months later and change for the better. :lol:

I take what comes anyway just as long as we don`t get so many mild wet SW winds like last winter. :lol:

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The Met Office did say that there was a 1 in 6 chance of seeing record breaking conditions such as 2003 or 2006, however THEY DID NOT SAT IT WOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD, only that it would be aboveraverage in terms of temperature and around average in terms of rainfall.

Exactly, thats the sort of the thing the tabloid media do, totally misrepresent what the Met Office said in order to fufil a desire to have a jab at "the scientists".

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
I don't pay any real attention to long range forecasts, take this years Met office forecast for this summer one of the hottest likely on record! what a load of rubbish, yes sometimes they do get it right like winter 05/06 (though even then it didn't quite turn out as cold as first anticipated)...

This summer is a real lesson too many who take long range forecasts as gospel......, the safe option for winter today will always be to forecast another mild one, just like a warm one for summer...

oh dear here we go again with yet another wild misquote.

Its ever so easy to log on to the Met O site, as any other, and actually read what they posted rather than a somewhat innaccurate supposed quote.

just seen someone has tried to set the record straight but never mind I'll leave it here.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Meto are quoted out of context as the media are preposed to do. However, their summer forecast was wrong like most...pure and simple.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

One in Eight Chance of being a Hot summer.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

I don't know if it's done that or not. We recorded 14.8C for Summer but we're not in the CET Zone so that bit's correct.

Rainfall it didn't really specify one way or the other.

The Met Office forecast of global mean temperature for 2007, issued on 4 January 2007 in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, stated that 2007 is likely to be the warmest ever year on record going back to 1850, beating the current record set in 1998.

Dunno about that but thats the bit people are picking up on.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Last winter was forecast to be colder and look what happened one of the most disppointing mildest winters ever mind you we did have our heaviest drier snowfall since 1987 :) but it turned wet in the end started off powdery(only lasted 4 days), and the heaviest snowfall otherwise since 1988 which was the worst winter as it was very wet snow yuck! all 1 foot of it causing all sorts of damage which lasted just a couple days.

I hope you don't think the Met Office called below average last winter, while they admitted to uncertainty in their forecast due to El Nino, they called for above average temperatures and average rainfall, while they got the rainfall aspect wrong, they did call above average temperatures.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Mmm net weather you have two very contradictory monthly forecasts for September.

i.e. Your autumn forecast is progging a below average CET for September and Ian Simpsons september forecast is going for a mild month...

Which to believe? Why are they not singing from the same hymn book as such, it is making a mockery of the level of trust put in your forecasts..

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

One is written by a forecaster (Ian aka TWS), one is derived from the CFS data so there will be differences as the lrf is not an exact science. That said though, it's important take note of this point on the seasonal forecast system:

The average figures you see on the forecast are not the standard 1971 to 2000 figures you may often see, instead they are rolling averages, currently from the period 1980-2003.

The average figure which is built into the CFS system is this rolling average (we have no control over this), and it is higher than the 71-00 averages.

Looking at the forecast figures for the approx CET zone, it's showing something between 15 and 15.5c which is very close to what Ian is forecasting, so not as different as it may look at first glance.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
One is written by a forecaster (Ian aka TWS), one is derived from the CFS data so there will be differences as the lrf is not an exact science. That said though, it's important take note of this point on the seasonal forecast system:

The average figure which is built into the CFS system is this rolling average (we have no control over this), and it is higher than the 71-00 averages.

Looking at the forecast figures for the approx CET zone, it's showing something between 15 and 15.5c which is very close to what Ian is forecasting, so not as different as it may look at first glance.

Thanks for clearing that up Paul. It makes more sense now taking into account that rolling average. With that in mind and if the CFS LRF does end up correct, we're certainly looking at another very mild Autumn, and Winter 2007/08........ :D

:)

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