September CET!

[summer blizzard]

Autumn offically starts in September, so the question is, will we see some seasonal weather or will the mildness of the past few Septembers continue????

Having reveiwed my data, my preliminary prediction for the September CET is 13.2C, 0.5C below average, however i may revise this estimate upwards or downward before the end of the month, however i do expect the range to be 12.4C-14.5C.

[Stu_London]

Autumn offically starts in September, so the question is, will we see some seasonal weather or will the mildness of the past few Septembers continue????

Having reveiwed my data, my preliminary prediction for the September CET is 13.2C, 0.5C below average, however i may revise this estimate upwards or downward before the end of the month, however i do expect the range to be 12.4C-14.5C.

I expect something in the range of 10.1C to 17.0C - but unless the competition organisors let me have those two points and all points within as my guess, I will withhold judgement at this ridculously early stage

[Gavin P]

The important thing will be whether we see any crazy heat in the opening week or so of the month. I anticipate a fairly warm month, probably in the low to mid 14's, but without any crazy hot days, and by crazy hot I'm talking 27c+

Of course if we have a crazy heatwave early on, it'll be a good deal higher than low to mid 14's!

Edited August 19, 2007 by Gavin P

[noggin]

I shall be plumping for a below average CET again, because I think we have entered a cooling down phase.

Actual prediction to follow once I have consulted my crystal ball and tea leaves.

[Weather-history]

Of course if we have a crazy heatwave early on, it'll be a good deal higher than low to mid 14's!

Not necessarily so, Gavin.

September 1906 started with the hottest spell ever recorded for September with maxima as high as 35.6C but that ended with a CET of 13.9

I'm going for 14.4

[Bottesford]

Hopefully a warm, dry & sunny month. Not holding my breath though... Too early for my CET prediction - maybe look again in a week or so.

[VillagePlank]

I expect something in the range of 10.1C to 17.0C - but unless the competition organisors let me have those two points and all points within as my guess, I will withhold judgement at this ridculously early stage

I am expecting the CET values to hold within my expected range of -20C -> +20C

Edited August 20, 2007 by VillagePlank

[Stu_London]

I shall be plumping for a below average CET again, because I think we have entered a cooling down phase.

Actual prediction to follow once I have consulted my crystal ball and tea leaves.

There are some quirks with this September -

It could be the warmest month of the year (don't think this has happened before - sure Mr D will put me right) - Septembers with CET above 16C are rare but possible - 16.8C last year

September could be cooler than May for the first time since 1952

There is a very small chance that September could be cooler than April for the 1st (and probably last) time ever. On 8 occasions September has been lower than 11.2C - the last in 1952 (10.7C)

[VillagePlank]

- 16.8C

That's quite cold. I can't even recall a day that cold for the last decade, at least

[Weather-history]

It could be the warmest month of the year (don't think this has happened before - sure Mr D will put me right) - Septembers with CET above 16C are rare but possible - 16.8C last year

1890 is the only time September was the warmest month of the year (14.6)

1992 was the last time September (13.4) was cooler than May (13.6)

It could be warmer than July. That has only happened 6 times: 1795, 1902, 1821, 1875, 1890, 1895.

[Stu_London]

That's quite cold. I can't even recall a day that cold for the last decade, at least

don't - you will get the cold rampers going

1890 is the only time September was the warmest month of the year (14.6)

1992 was the last time September (13.4) was cooler than May (13.6)

It could be warmer than July. That has only happened 6 times: 1795, 1902, 1821, 1875, 1890, 1895.

Good to see that my original article only contained several errors

Thanks for the corrections

[SteveB]

14.0 for me.

[Gavin P]

Kev, I realise 1906 had that tremendous heatwave in the first day or so, but still came out with a CET under 14c. However, 1906 was a long time ago, and what I'm basing my prediction on, that an early September heatwave would give us a CET above 14c, is whats been going on in recent years.

Personally I'd like a September like 92, 93, 94 or 95 - Just for the novelty factor.

[Sunshine]

1890 is the only time September was the warmest month of the year (14.6)

1992 was the last time September (13.4) was cooler than May (13.6)

It could be warmer than July. That has only happened 6 times: 1795, 1902, 1821, 1875, 1890, 1895.

September 1980 came very close as well, and was warmer than July in the Manley CET series.

[Optimus Prime]

Provisionally 15.9c for me

[Rollo]

I will (with my usual pinch of salt) go for 13.8c which I believe is a tad above average.

[shuggee]

15.1ºC for me please

[Gavin P]

Very unsettled, mild month. Frequent areas of low pressure giving wet amd windy conditions. One spell of fine and warm weather, sometime around the 15th-21st, but otherwise a low pressure dominated month.

CET; 14.2

Rainfall; 180%

Sunshine; 80%

I may move the CET up or down a bit, before September 1st.

[The PIT]

I'll go for 14.1C

[Lettucing Gutted]

This September will make last year's September look freezing. September 2007 17C.

[Duncan McAlister]

Judging by the amount of times it's happened this summer, I think September will see at least a few incursions of Pm air. The amazing thing about last September was not only did the 0C 850 isotherm never come anywhere near our shores, but the 5C isotherm was well to our north for most of the month too. I don't think it'll be like that this year, we've seen 0C air into England in June and brush N Scotland in July. Next week on GFS sees a very cold shot for late August into Scandinavia with the -5C isotherm brushing the north.

Will reserve my prediction until a day or two before the 1st as per usual! :unsure:

Edited August 21, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[summer blizzard]

12.4C: Summer Blizzard

13.8C: Rollo

14C: Steve B

14.1C: The PIT

14.2C: Gavin P

14.4C: Mr Data

15.1C: Shuggee

15.9C: Optimus Prime

17C: Craig Evans

I anticipate July, take two, and i may lower this further.

The average September CET is 13.7C.

[Gavin P]

:o

The coolest since 1993? That would be a shock after the last few years! :o

[TEITS]

Tricky one this because im expecting September to be a very dry settled month dominated by HP so although the max temps might me above average the min temps could be below.

My estimate is 14.1C.

[beng]

13.2c, 120% of rainfall.

I think it will start settled with a weak NW flow and chilly nights. Rapidly becoming unsettled, and zonal. I suspect there will be a fair number of Polar Maritime days allowing chilly nights (in between the bands of rain) producing a fairly cool month (again).

Look for blocking in the W Atlantic and a strong jet over the top down through the UK with potentially stormy weather towards the end of the month as the temperature gradient increases and cold air hits the relatively warm waters South of Greenland.

:o

Edited August 23, 2007 by beng