September CET!

[eddie]

I have been looking back at the CET record for Septembers which follow a below average July and August (71-00 average). It seems only around one third of Septembers that follow a below average July and August are above average.

On that basis I am going for 13.3C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

12.4C: Summer Blizzard

13.8C: Rollo

14C: Steve B

14.1C: The PIT

14.2C: Gavin P

14.4C: Mr Data

15.1C: Shuggee

15.9C: Optimus Prime

17C: Craig Evans

I anticipate July, take two, and i may lower this further.

The average September CET is 13.7C.

Interesting but I'll make my call at the end of the month as I'll see how warm the 5-9 will be before NW domination kicks in again. Close to average but slightly below. No figure yet

BFTP

[kold weather]

I won't make a call right now but needless to say none of the major teleconnective players have changed since late May, the only major thing is the Azores high is much further north then it was at the start of the summer BUT its too strong and too far west for it to represent warm and dry.

It has to be said the set-up does favor a very powerful Azores high indeed, if it can be displaced east we could end up with a very warm month but thats a massive IF indeed.

Edited August 23, 2007 by kold weather

[fishdude]

I think slightly below average at 13C.

[nkaol2001]

Autumn offically starts in September, so the question is, will we see some seasonal weather or will the mildness of the past few Septembers continue????

Having reveiwed my data, my preliminary prediction for the September CET is 13.2C, 0.5C below average, however i may revise this estimate upwards or downward before the end of the month, however i do expect the range to be 12.4C-14.5C.

Well, I'm not sure what the CET will be, but bearing in mind this has been the WORST summer ever known for much of England & Wales, I would say that a fairly decent September looks to be in the offing: i.e. warmer, drier, & much sunnier than normal From exp. I have found that poor summers tend to be followed by much improved autumns 1978 being a case in point.

Incidentally, you dont say how wet Sept. will be. All the so called " experts" seem to think it will be wetter & cooler than normal, but why this should be I dont know......more a case of wishful thinking I think! Anyway, I predict a lovely autumn, the best since !978 if u can remember. It would be a small gesture from Nature after this appalling travesty of a summer I'll be int. to see what anyone else thinks.

[Anti-Mild]

Well, I'm not sure what the CET will be, but bearing in mind this has been the WORST summer ever known for much of England & Wales

That has to be the biggest overstatement in the history of mankind!!

At this (slightly) early time I'll provisionally go for 14.0c on the money, slightly above average, although I do reserve the right to alter this.

[Cymru]

I'll stick my neck out and go for 15.0c on the dot!

[ghrud]

Still a bit early for a guess, but I'll go a little above average at 14.5

[Snowyowl9]

Last september was 16.8c and was the warmest on record smashed.

The 2 previous years were warm too.

2nd warmest was 1953

We`re due a cooler september this year and a dry one I think.

Considering I`ve overdone the last 2 months which looks likely for august also I`ll go for 13.9c.

[Kentish Man]

Maybe a September as warm as July, 15.3C for me.

[Wales123098]

hey!

umm i am saying 13.8c to 14.2c with it being cooler than the last few years with the cooling trend and i think its going to be a colder winter than average

[January Snowstorm]

That has to be the biggest overstatement in the history of mankind!!

Well what would you call it then?

[smith25]

put me down for 15.1... just an uneducated guess

[Geordiesnow]

I personally believe a tad above average Sept of 14.3.

[The PIT]

Beginning to think my punt will be a little to low now.

[Snowly does it]

the ten year rolling average is 14.9, I think September will be warmer than that and fall just short of July - 15.2, a figure which also keeps the warmest ever year on a knife edge

[Osbourne One-Nil]

You're wrong Snowmaiden - it will be 14.9º.

[Snowly does it]

You're wrong Snowmaiden - it will be 14.9º.

Thats true, it will be 14.9, 14.9 plus another 0.3

[Don]

OK, 14.7C for me!

[summer blizzard]

13C: Fishdude

13.2C: Beng

13.3C: Eddie

13.8C: Rollo

13.9C: Snowyowl9

14C: Steve B

14C: Anti-Mild

14.1C: The PIT

14.1C: The Eye In The Sky

14.2C: Gavin P

14.3C: Geordie Snow

14.4C: Mr Data

14.5C: Summer Blizzard

14.5C: Ghrud

14.7C: Don

14.9C: Osbourne One-Nil

15C: Cymru

15.1C: Shuggee

15.1C: Smith25

15.2C: Snowmaiden

15.3C: Kentish Man

15.9C: Optimus Prime

17C: Craig Evans

The average September CET is 13.7C...

I have revised my estimate upward, i may make one more change downward before then end of the month.

[sundog]

I think september could end up being a fairly mixed month over all, and be a little below average at 13.9.

[Optimus Prime]

Ok my final estimate is 15.5c.

[stormchaser1]

14.7c for me please

High pressure to dominate especially the first 2 weeks then Low pressure towards the end of the month

Windy between the 20th and 27th, dry first few weeks then wet final few weeks. Warm during the day , cooler in the mornings

Nigel

[Gavin P]

I'm increasing my guess to 15.0, please. I *may* go significantly higher still before the end of the month.

Looking at where the models are going with this high pressure pattern, and comparing to all the recent Septembers, I think we've got a chance of September being the hottest month of the year! :o

Edited August 26, 2007 by Gavin P

[SP1986]

14.3