September CET!

[osmposm]

No rhyme or reason, but lets say 14.3^oC.

Which is, I think, about halfway between the 71-00 average and the 10-year rolling mean.

[Roger J Smith]

I believe September will start out very warm and then try to stay that way under increasing pressure from a stormy Atlantic to drop back towards normal late in the month.

This gives an estimate of 15.8 C as the CET, but frankly I would not be surprised by anything between 14 and the record high, whatever that is.

[West is Best]

Everytime I upgrade I go haywire, but I'm sorely tempted to do so. The trouble is, can I cope with Mr Data reminding me of my foolishness come the end of the month if I do? Decisions decisions, and I'm going to be with Mrs WIB and little WIB all day.

However, if the GFS is right we're in for a hot opening fortnight - lots of 25C's likely and I reckon a 30C is better than evens. So it's going to look pretty high to start with!

OK - here goes:

September CET will be 15.4C

I bet I should have stuck with 14.9C, but there we go! At least it might look good for the first 10 days - which are going to be warm.

[snowray]

14.6c please

[Bobby]

14.6c for me.

Edited August 31, 2007 by Magpie

[DR Hosking]

no Idea really, last 2 months ive been on the warm side and I thought my guesses were fairly cool! Was thinking on the warm side again, I was going to say 15.2 but looking at the list above and the general consensus I thing that may be a bit high again so I will take a punt at 14.5

[Joneseye]

Stick me down for 14.4c please

[Duncan McAlister]

I think we're in for a very warm one, anticyclonic but not as strong a southerly flow as last year.

15.5, joining a rather exclusive club of Septembers warmer than Julys. I do hope I'm wrong.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm going to make a prediction, and it's a high one this time: 15.3C. The first half is likely to be rather warm.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Less than 24 hours.....

14.1 please

Ta.

[reef]

After the suprise of July and August I was tempted to go near to or below average, but with SSTs warming and what looks like quite a warm start I cant help but feel that September will be another warm one. Im going for the warmest month of the year, just beating out August at 15.9°C.

[Gavin P]

Final prediction from me;

CET 14.2

Rainfall 140% of average (the dry weather in the first 10 days will give way to a wet spell, IMO)

Sunshine 120%

[Mammatus]

14.9C

Mammatus B)

[Great Plum]

14.8 for me please

[NorthantsSnow]

My CET prediction for September 2007 is 13.9 °C, marginally above average.

[JohnAcc]

14.7 for me please.

[Stratos Ferric]

15.2C

[snowingman]

ok.. has to be ... lets think about it... hold on... YES its going to be .. a magnificent 15.4C .. a truely Indian Summer!

thankyou

[Terminal Moraine]

I think it will be a month of two halves, Brian. The end result being a mean of 14.2c.

T.M

[cheeky_monkey]

im sliding in with a late 14.5c please

[NorthYorksWeather]

il go for 14.6 B)

[acbrixton]

15 as my guess please

regards

ACB

[Mark H]

14.6 is my punt for this month.

[Somerset Squall]

14.8C for me please.

[Glacier Point]

Lots of signals for high pressure. QBO, SSTA and AO all suggest a limpet-like high with upper level weakness over the Azores - Canaries locale. With such a total lack of angular momentum, this is not going to change.

The key thing here is orientation of the high - which will be governed by height anomalies across the polar field - and the SSTA which is for a -NAO (low pressure over the AZores).

Polar height anomalies are indeterminate right now:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...hgt.ao.cdas.gif

whilst the anolagues for SSTA pattern come up average temps. SSTAs to our SW are below to the tune of 0.25-0.5.

Some heat is programmed next week, which would be sustained for a while if verified.

A very tough call, particularly when night time values start to play a greater role in the CET calculation.

My range would be -0.5 to +1 Split the difference and add a little for something nearly in the bank.

September CET = 14.1 C please