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Tropical Storm Henriette


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Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Tropical Depression 11E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Mexico

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

    is this tropical storm Henriette?

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    is this tropical storm Henriette?

    Very close to becoming Tropical Storm Henriette, yes. Here's the latest disscussion.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

    200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

    THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN GAINING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW

    HOURS. GOES-EAST IMAGERY FOLLOWING THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD

    HAS REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE

    OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING RIGHT OVER THE ESTIMATED LOCATION OF THE

    LOW-LEVEL CENTER. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE...

    SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ACAPULCO RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT HEAVY

    RAINS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DVORAK INTENSITY

    ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE NOT QUITE YET A CONSENSUS 2.5...SO THE

    ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. SINCE CONVECTION HAS

    INCREASED SINCE 06Z...THE DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY ON VERGE OF

    BECOMING TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS

    ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR

    GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AS THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST

    TO LESSEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FORECAST STILL

    INDICATES HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE

    SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF DO NOT

    FORECAST MUCH INTENSIFICATION.

    BASED ON AN EARLIER 00Z WINDSAT OVERPASS...AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM

    ACAPULCO MEXICO...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED

    SOUTHWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/9. THAT

    MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE

    NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE. BEYOND THAT TIME

    MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THAT RIDGE TO WEAKEN. IF THE CYCLONE

    STRENGTHENS AS FORECAST IT WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN

    THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THAT WEAKNESS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE

    ECMWF AND GFS TRACK FORECASTS. IF IT FOR SOME REASON IS

    WEAKER...AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING...THE TRACK COULD END

    UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 31/0900Z 15.3N 99.3W 30 KT

    12HR VT 31/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W 40 KT

    24HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 102.1W 45 KT

    36HR VT 01/1800Z 17.8N 103.7W 50 KT

    48HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 105.3W 55 KT

    72HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 108.0W 65 KT

    96HR VT 04/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W 70 KT

    120HR VT 05/0600Z 23.5N 112.5W 65 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER KNABB

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Mexico

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 20% in about 45 hours

    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 15% in about 69 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Here are my thoughts on Henriette from the east pacific thread:

    Henriette continues to strengthen and it's convection is very deep and covers a large area. Because of Henriette's size and proximity to land I think strengthening will be slow to occur and unless it moves away from the Mexican coast then it will struggle to become a hurricane IMO. It is, however, forecast to become a hurricane over the next couple days as it nears Baja Calafornia, so it may need watching then. It's worth noting that the heavy rains may cause life threatening landslides to coastal parts of Mexico over the coming days.
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

    200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

    NOW THAT MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING AWAY FROM LAND...THE

    CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A MORE DISTINCT SHAPE. THE

    CENTER IS VERY MUCH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION AND WITHIN

    SEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IN FACT...THERE IS A HINT OF AN

    EYE FEATURE. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED SUPPORTING A HIGHER INITIAL

    INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS

    WARM. THEREFORE..HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT

    TWO DAYS.

    THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH CONTINUES TO BE

    295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO

    CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH IS

    CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UNANIMOUSLY...MOST OF THE

    GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE HIGH ALLOWING HENRIETTE TO TURN MORE TO

    THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE

    GUIDANCE BRINGS HENRIETTE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COOLER WATERS JUST

    WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS

    TIME. ONLY THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE

    NORTHWARD OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE

    OCEAN IS QUITE WARM. IN THIS CASE... HENRIETTE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN

    ITS INTENSITY AND THE HURRICANE WOULD BE MORE DANGEROUS TO MEXICO.

    ONE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE RUNS OF THESE TWO RELIABLE

    MODELS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 01/2100Z 18.2N 105.4W 55 KT

    12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.8N 106.8W 65 KT

    24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W 75 KT

    36HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.0W 75 KT

    48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 111.5W 75 KT

    72HR VT 04/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 70 KT

    96HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W 60 KT

    120HR VT 06/1800Z 27.0N 115.0W 40 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER AVILA

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Tropical Storm HENRIETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Mexico

    probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

    has it wakend at all?

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    has it wakend at all?

    Nope, it's looking quite impressive now and could become a hurricane tonight- more likely tomorrow.

    The lower probabilties of landfall in the figures you have posted are due to the fact Henriette has moved a little further away from land, which of course will allow it more chance to continue strengthening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    I just thought as thier hadnt been in any posts in 24 hrs that it had,

    have you got a satalite image of it?

    Here we go, she is on the right of this image. The little blob to the left of her is the weakening tropical depression Gil.

    wg9ir.GIF

    http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...inds/wg9ir.html

    She has killed 6 already in Mexico (and these are only confirmed deaths).

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070901/wl_nm/mexico_storm_dc

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    thanks for the image

    6 gee wizz? how many did dean kill?

    cant bealive how small gill looks compard to henriette!

    Looking at various sources it appears to be somewhere between 20 and 30 deaths from Dean- which considering was a cat 5 hurricane things could have been much worse. When Dean made landfall in the Yucatan it hit a sparsely populated area which obviously was a blessing.

    Gil has always been a relativley small storm- it only just about reached tropical storm strength. The reason why it looks so small now is because most of it's convection has gone- I fully expect Gil to no longer qualify to be a tropical cyclone by the next advisory (this is because of lack of any decent convection around his center).

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    I hope that all other hurricanes cause as little loss of life as possible,

    its great fun watching them devlope etc but the loss of life side isnt as gud

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    I hope that all other hurricanes cause as little loss of life as possible,

    its great fun watching them devlope etc but the loss of life side isnt as gud

    Totally agree.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Henriette is very nearly a hurricane, it's even possible that it may just about be one now. There is discussion about the possibilty of rapid intensification as outflow is excellent and conditions ideal.

    TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

    800 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

    WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED AT 1200 UTC...DEEP

    CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS SINCE INCREASED AND A NEW BAND IS

    FORMING TO THE NORTH. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE

    CYCLONE HAS A SMALL CORE. HENRIETTE COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF

    BECOMING A HURRICANE BUT I PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY

    CONFIRMS THE CENTER LOCATION AND STRUCTURE. ACCORDINGLY...THE

    INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

    ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HENRIETTE WILL BE LOCATED IN A SEEMINGLY

    IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

    UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY UNRESTRICTED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND

    GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER HENRIETTE

    BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE NEW FEW DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...

    SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AMPLY WARM. THE SHIPS RAPID

    INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A HIGHER THAN USUAL CHANCE FOR

    RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED

    UPWARDS AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ICON. BEYOND 48 HOURS...

    COOLERS WATERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO

    RESULT IN WEAKENING.

    HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS

    FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 295/6. THE

    SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC

    RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS

    SHOW THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF

    DAYS AS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST

    COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO

    GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL

    SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS

    ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALMOST INSTANTLY AND THEN

    TURN NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.

    WHILE THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED

    THAT THIS MODEL PERFORMED VERY WELL IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS LAST

    YEAR. IN PARTICULAR...THE GFDL MODEL OUTPERFORMED THE GLOBAL

    MODELS DURING JOHN AND LANE...TWO HURRICANES WHICH SIMILARLY

    PARALLELED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

    ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN DEFERENCE TO

    THE GFDL MODEL AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL

    CONSENSUS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN

    BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.8N 106.7W 60 KT

    12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.2N 107.6W 70 KT

    24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 109.0W 75 KT

    36HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 110.2W 85 KT

    48HR VT 04/1200Z 22.0N 111.3W 80 KT

    72HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W 70 KT

    96HR VT 06/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 50 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA

    120HR VT 07/1200Z 30.1N 113.0W 30 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER RHOME

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Tropical Storm HENRIETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Mexico

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Tropical Storm Henriette has weakened overnight as it has seemingly become more disorganised. It is still progged to become a hurricane but rapid intensification is now unlikely.

    TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

    200 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007

    DESPITE A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE

    PRESENTATION DEPICTS A BIT OF A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN THE BANDING

    FEATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.

    SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...AND

    BASED ON THE RECENT LESS IMPRESSIVE BANDING STRUCTURE...THE

    INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT. THE INTENSITY MODELS

    CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 24-36

    HOURS...ALTHOUGH MOST HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PEAK

    INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPER

    ENSEMBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH A MAXIMUM

    FORECAST INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 36 HOURS.

    THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 310/8...A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS

    ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A

    WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA

    PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING

    MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. DYNAMICAL

    MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ARE SUGGESTING A TURN

    NORTHWARD PLACING THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE VERY NEAR THE

    SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 HOURS...THEN CONTINUING

    ON OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH THE SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE

    NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.

    AFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION

    OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH DISSIPATION IN 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL

    FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE

    MODEL CONSENSUS.

    A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS

    OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.

    AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED

    TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE THIS AFTERNOON.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 03/0900Z 19.4N 107.7W 55 KT

    12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.2N 108.6W 60 KT

    24HR VT 04/0600Z 21.4N 109.8W 70 KT

    36HR VT 04/1800Z 22.7N 110.7W 75 KT

    48HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 111.3W 70 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA

    72HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 111.5W 50 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF

    96HR VT 07/0600Z 32.0N 110.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

    120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$

    FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Henriette has strengthened once more to 60kts and is looking a lot healthier than this morning. I think she will make the push for hurricane status now, conditions are very favourable so it would be surprising if she doesn't make it. Landfall in Baja looking pretty nailed on now, unless there are any surprise shifts westwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Tropical Storm HENRIETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Mexico

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

    probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Henriette is now a hurricane, the 3rd of the East Pacific season.

    HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

    200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

    CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS

    HAVE SHOWN AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION OF

    HENRIETTE. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN

    LUCAS CLEARLY SHOW A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY

    ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE

    INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT MAKING HENRIETTE THE

    THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2007 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

    HENRIETTE APPEARS TO MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE

    INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS

    ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD

    WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF A TROUGH...

    WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED

    STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE

    CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN

    12 HOURS OR SO. THE UKMET MODEL IS THE FURTHEST TO THE EAST AND

    KEEPS HENRIETTE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THE

    OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT A HAIR

    TO THE EAST AND WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION. ONCE HENRIETTE IS

    NORTH AND WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...FINAL LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR

    ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

    ONCE INLAND THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION

    FAIRLY QUICKLY.

    BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND IN STRENGTH...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO

    INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER BAJA. THE WATERS ARE

    PLENTY WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...SO IT IS POSSIBLY THAT

    HENRIETTE COULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW. LITTLE

    WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AS

    A RESULT OF THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THE CENTER WILL BE OVER BAJA.

    THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS

    GUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN THE

    CYCLONE MAKES ITS FINAL LANDFALL.

    BASED ON A 0150 UTC PASS FROM QUIKSCAT...THE WIND RADII WERE

    ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 04/0900Z 21.4N 109.1W 65 KT

    12HR VT 04/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W 70 KT

    24HR VT 05/0600Z 24.5N 110.2W 65 KT

    36HR VT 05/1800Z 26.4N 110.6W 65 KT

    48HR VT 06/0600Z 28.4N 110.4W 45 KT...INLAND

    72HR VT 07/0600Z 31.0N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

    96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$

    FORECASTER MAINELLI

    750px-2007_11E_5-day_track.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Hurricane HENRIETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Mexico

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 21 hours

    probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 21 hours

    probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours

    probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Henriette has maintained hurricane status over the southern tip of Baja Calfornia and has emerged in the sea of cortez. Shear is light and sea temps are very warm but there will probably be too much land interaction for any significant strengthening before it makes it's second and final landfall on the coast of Mexico.

    HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

    200 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007

    ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT TWO WELL-DEFINED DEEP

    CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE.

    DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 65

    KT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE 3-HOUR AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 55

    KT. A 0124 UTC QSCAT PASS ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 55 KT...

    HOWEVER...THE PASS WAS LARGELY OBSTRUCTED BY LAND AND IT IS

    DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW ACCURATE THE VALUES ARE. BASED ON A BLEND OF

    THE ABOVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD

    AT 65 KT.

    THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/11. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED

    TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING

    TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG

    THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 OR SO HOURS WITHIN THE

    WARNING AREA. THEREAFTER...A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK IS

    EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION.

    DESPITE THE WARM WATERS ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND A LOW SHEAR

    ENVIRONMENT...THE INTERACTION OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE

    CYCLONE WITH LAND WILL MOST LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT

    STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS...THE HIGH

    TERRAIN OF MEXICO SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AT FAIRLY RAPID RATE

    AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN TWO DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.

    BECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY

    OBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR

    LANDFALL LOCATION. A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST

    WOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND

    MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL

    SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN

    MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT

    INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 05/0900Z 25.0N 109.9W 65 KT

    12HR VT 05/1800Z 26.8N 110.1W 65 KT

    24HR VT 06/0600Z 29.5N 109.2W 35 KT...INLAND

    36HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

    48HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$

    FORECASTER MAINELLI

    Satellite image showing it's current position:

    wg9visX.GIF

    You can see how narrow the Sea of Cortez is, so despite favourable conditions it probably won't intensify again before the Mexican landfall.

    What a time Central America is having of it at the moment. First Dean and Felix and now Henriette causing real problems! Understatement of the century but there certainly has been some very excerbated rainfall totals for parts of Central America over the last couple of weeks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Hurricane HENRIETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Mexico

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently

    probability for TS is 100% currently

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