Tropical Storm Henriette

[Cookie]

Tropical Depression 11E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

is this tropical storm Henriette?

[Somerset Squall]

is this tropical storm Henriette?

Very close to becoming Tropical Storm Henriette, yes. Here's the latest disscussion.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN GAINING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW

HOURS. GOES-EAST IMAGERY FOLLOWING THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD

HAS REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE

OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING RIGHT OVER THE ESTIMATED LOCATION OF THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ACAPULCO RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT HEAVY

RAINS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE NOT QUITE YET A CONSENSUS 2.5...SO THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. SINCE CONVECTION HAS

INCREASED SINCE 06Z...THE DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY ON VERGE OF

BECOMING TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AS THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST

TO LESSEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FORECAST STILL

INDICATES HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE

SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF DO NOT

FORECAST MUCH INTENSIFICATION.

BASED ON AN EARLIER 00Z WINDSAT OVERPASS...AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM

ACAPULCO MEXICO...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED

SOUTHWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/9. THAT

MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE

NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE. BEYOND THAT TIME

MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THAT RIDGE TO WEAKEN. IF THE CYCLONE

STRENGTHENS AS FORECAST IT WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN

THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THAT WEAKNESS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE

ECMWF AND GFS TRACK FORECASTS. IF IT FOR SOME REASON IS

WEAKER...AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING...THE TRACK COULD END

UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 15.3N 99.3W 30 KT

12HR VT 31/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W 40 KT

24HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 102.1W 45 KT

36HR VT 01/1800Z 17.8N 103.7W 50 KT

48HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 105.3W 55 KT

72HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 108.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 04/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W 70 KT

120HR VT 05/0600Z 23.5N 112.5W 65 KT

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Cookie]

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 45 hours

Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 69 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Here are my thoughts on Henriette from the east pacific thread:

Henriette continues to strengthen and it's convection is very deep and covers a large area. Because of Henriette's size and proximity to land I think strengthening will be slow to occur and unless it moves away from the Mexican coast then it will struggle to become a hurricane IMO. It is, however, forecast to become a hurricane over the next couple days as it nears Baja Calafornia, so it may need watching then. It's worth noting that the heavy rains may cause life threatening landslides to coastal parts of Mexico over the coming days.

[Somerset Squall]

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

NOW THAT MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING AWAY FROM LAND...THE

CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A MORE DISTINCT SHAPE. THE

CENTER IS VERY MUCH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION AND WITHIN

SEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IN FACT...THERE IS A HINT OF AN

EYE FEATURE. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED SUPPORTING A HIGHER INITIAL

INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS

WARM. THEREFORE..HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT

TWO DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH CONTINUES TO BE

295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH IS

CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UNANIMOUSLY...MOST OF THE

GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE HIGH ALLOWING HENRIETTE TO TURN MORE TO

THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE

GUIDANCE BRINGS HENRIETTE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COOLER WATERS JUST

WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS

TIME. ONLY THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE

NORTHWARD OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE

OCEAN IS QUITE WARM. IN THIS CASE... HENRIETTE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN

ITS INTENSITY AND THE HURRICANE WOULD BE MORE DANGEROUS TO MEXICO.

ONE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE RUNS OF THESE TWO RELIABLE

MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 18.2N 105.4W 55 KT

12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.8N 106.8W 65 KT

24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W 75 KT

36HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.0W 75 KT

48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 111.5W 75 KT

72HR VT 04/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 70 KT

96HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W 60 KT

120HR VT 06/1800Z 27.0N 115.0W 40 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm HENRIETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

has it wakend at all?

[Somerset Squall]

has it wakend at all?

Nope, it's looking quite impressive now and could become a hurricane tonight- more likely tomorrow.

The lower probabilties of landfall in the figures you have posted are due to the fact Henriette has moved a little further away from land, which of course will allow it more chance to continue strengthening.

[Cookie]

I just thought as thier hadnt been in any posts in 24 hrs that it had,

have you got a satalite image of it?

[Somerset Squall]

I just thought as thier hadnt been in any posts in 24 hrs that it had,

have you got a satalite image of it?

Here we go, she is on the right of this image. The little blob to the left of her is the weakening tropical depression Gil.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...inds/wg9ir.html

She has killed 6 already in Mexico (and these are only confirmed deaths).

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070901/wl_nm/mexico_storm_dc

[Cookie]

thanks for the image

6 gee wizz? how many did dean kill?

cant bealive how small gill looks compard to henriette!

[Somerset Squall]

thanks for the image

6 gee wizz? how many did dean kill?

cant bealive how small gill looks compard to henriette!

Looking at various sources it appears to be somewhere between 20 and 30 deaths from Dean- which considering was a cat 5 hurricane things could have been much worse. When Dean made landfall in the Yucatan it hit a sparsely populated area which obviously was a blessing.

Gil has always been a relativley small storm- it only just about reached tropical storm strength. The reason why it looks so small now is because most of it's convection has gone- I fully expect Gil to no longer qualify to be a tropical cyclone by the next advisory (this is because of lack of any decent convection around his center).

[Cookie]

I hope that all other hurricanes cause as little loss of life as possible,

its great fun watching them devlope etc but the loss of life side isnt as gud

[Somerset Squall]

I hope that all other hurricanes cause as little loss of life as possible,

its great fun watching them devlope etc but the loss of life side isnt as gud

Totally agree.

[Somerset Squall]

Henriette is very nearly a hurricane, it's even possible that it may just about be one now. There is discussion about the possibilty of rapid intensification as outflow is excellent and conditions ideal.

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

800 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED AT 1200 UTC...DEEP

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS SINCE INCREASED AND A NEW BAND IS

FORMING TO THE NORTH. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE

CYCLONE HAS A SMALL CORE. HENRIETTE COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF

BECOMING A HURRICANE BUT I PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY

CONFIRMS THE CENTER LOCATION AND STRUCTURE. ACCORDINGLY...THE

INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HENRIETTE WILL BE LOCATED IN A SEEMINGLY

IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY UNRESTRICTED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER HENRIETTE

BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE NEW FEW DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...

SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AMPLY WARM. THE SHIPS RAPID

INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A HIGHER THAN USUAL CHANCE FOR

RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED

UPWARDS AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ICON. BEYOND 48 HOURS...

COOLERS WATERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO

RESULT IN WEAKENING.

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 295/6. THE

SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC

RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS

SHOW THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS AS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST

COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO

GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL

SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS

ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALMOST INSTANTLY AND THEN

TURN NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.

WHILE THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED

THAT THIS MODEL PERFORMED VERY WELL IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS LAST

YEAR. IN PARTICULAR...THE GFDL MODEL OUTPERFORMED THE GLOBAL

MODELS DURING JOHN AND LANE...TWO HURRICANES WHICH SIMILARLY

PARALLELED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN DEFERENCE TO

THE GFDL MODEL AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL

CONSENSUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN

BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.8N 106.7W 60 KT

12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.2N 107.6W 70 KT

24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 109.0W 75 KT

36HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 110.2W 85 KT

48HR VT 04/1200Z 22.0N 111.3W 80 KT

72HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W 70 KT

96HR VT 06/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 50 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA

120HR VT 07/1200Z 30.1N 113.0W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm HENRIETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm Henriette has weakened overnight as it has seemingly become more disorganised. It is still progged to become a hurricane but rapid intensification is now unlikely.

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

200 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007

DESPITE A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE

PRESENTATION DEPICTS A BIT OF A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN THE BANDING

FEATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...AND

BASED ON THE RECENT LESS IMPRESSIVE BANDING STRUCTURE...THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT. THE INTENSITY MODELS

CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 24-36

HOURS...ALTHOUGH MOST HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PEAK

INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPER

ENSEMBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH A MAXIMUM

FORECAST INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 310/8...A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A

WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA

PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING

MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. DYNAMICAL

MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ARE SUGGESTING A TURN

NORTHWARD PLACING THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE VERY NEAR THE

SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 HOURS...THEN CONTINUING

ON OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH THE SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE

NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.

AFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION

OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH DISSIPATION IN 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE

MODEL CONSENSUS.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS

OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED

TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 19.4N 107.7W 55 KT

12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.2N 108.6W 60 KT

24HR VT 04/0600Z 21.4N 109.8W 70 KT

36HR VT 04/1800Z 22.7N 110.7W 75 KT

48HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 111.3W 70 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA

72HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 111.5W 50 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF

96HR VT 07/0600Z 32.0N 110.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

[Somerset Squall]

Henriette has strengthened once more to 60kts and is looking a lot healthier than this morning. I think she will make the push for hurricane status now, conditions are very favourable so it would be surprising if she doesn't make it. Landfall in Baja looking pretty nailed on now, unless there are any surprise shifts westwards.

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm HENRIETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Henriette is now a hurricane, the 3rd of the East Pacific season.

HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS

HAVE SHOWN AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION OF

HENRIETTE. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN

LUCAS CLEARLY SHOW A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT MAKING HENRIETTE THE

THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2007 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

HENRIETTE APPEARS TO MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE

INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD

WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF A TROUGH...

WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED

STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE

CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN

12 HOURS OR SO. THE UKMET MODEL IS THE FURTHEST TO THE EAST AND

KEEPS HENRIETTE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT A HAIR

TO THE EAST AND WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION. ONCE HENRIETTE IS

NORTH AND WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...FINAL LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR

ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

ONCE INLAND THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION

FAIRLY QUICKLY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND IN STRENGTH...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO

INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER BAJA. THE WATERS ARE

PLENTY WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...SO IT IS POSSIBLY THAT

HENRIETTE COULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW. LITTLE

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AS

A RESULT OF THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THE CENTER WILL BE OVER BAJA.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS

GUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN THE

CYCLONE MAKES ITS FINAL LANDFALL.

BASED ON A 0150 UTC PASS FROM QUIKSCAT...THE WIND RADII WERE

ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 21.4N 109.1W 65 KT

12HR VT 04/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W 70 KT

24HR VT 05/0600Z 24.5N 110.2W 65 KT

36HR VT 05/1800Z 26.4N 110.6W 65 KT

48HR VT 06/0600Z 28.4N 110.4W 45 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 07/0600Z 31.0N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Cookie]

Hurricane HENRIETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Henriette has maintained hurricane status over the southern tip of Baja Calfornia and has emerged in the sea of cortez. Shear is light and sea temps are very warm but there will probably be too much land interaction for any significant strengthening before it makes it's second and final landfall on the coast of Mexico.

HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

200 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT TWO WELL-DEFINED DEEP

CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE.

DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 65

KT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE 3-HOUR AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 55

KT. A 0124 UTC QSCAT PASS ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 55 KT...

HOWEVER...THE PASS WAS LARGELY OBSTRUCTED BY LAND AND IT IS

DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW ACCURATE THE VALUES ARE. BASED ON A BLEND OF

THE ABOVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD

AT 65 KT.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/11. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING

TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG

THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 OR SO HOURS WITHIN THE

WARNING AREA. THEREAFTER...A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK IS

EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION.

DESPITE THE WARM WATERS ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND A LOW SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT...THE INTERACTION OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE

CYCLONE WITH LAND WILL MOST LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT

STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS...THE HIGH

TERRAIN OF MEXICO SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AT FAIRLY RAPID RATE

AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN TWO DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.

BECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY

OBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR

LANDFALL LOCATION. A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST

WOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND

MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL

SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN

MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT

INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 25.0N 109.9W 65 KT

12HR VT 05/1800Z 26.8N 110.1W 65 KT

24HR VT 06/0600Z 29.5N 109.2W 35 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

Satellite image showing it's current position:

You can see how narrow the Sea of Cortez is, so despite favourable conditions it probably won't intensify again before the Mexican landfall.

What a time Central America is having of it at the moment. First Dean and Felix and now Henriette causing real problems! Understatement of the century but there certainly has been some very excerbated rainfall totals for parts of Central America over the last couple of weeks.

[Cookie]

Hurricane HENRIETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently