Major Hurricane Felix

[Iceberg]

Well it's finally been called by Navy. Advisory should be there pretty soon.

This one has been a bit of a struggle, GFDL takes it to a CAT3 and has for a few runs now with yet another Yucatan hit. Still alot of uncertainty.

Here's the latest paths.

Ships again take it to a Good 90+Kt hurricane pretty quickly.

Due to be Felix unless something bizarre happens. BTW what happen to Erin, missed that one. !

Edited August 31, 2007 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING A TROPICAL WAVE

EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION

WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS UP TO 36 KT. THESE WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 30

KT AT THE SURFACE...AND AGREE WELL WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THUS THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE

SEASON IS BORN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE

WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR NEAR THE DEPRESSION WILL

REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COUPLED WITH THE

WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A RECIPE

FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER MOST OF THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...AND CLOSE

PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. FOR NOW...THE

INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND

MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14. GLOBAL MODELS

KEEP A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD

AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK

FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE

ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 11.8N 58.6W 30 KT

12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W 35 KT

24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W 40 KT

36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W 45 KT

48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W 50 KT

72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W 55 KT

96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W 65 KT

120HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W 75 KT

[Cookie]

Im struggerling to keep up with alpherbet lol!!

[Iceberg]

Ships takes Him up to a 100Kt storm, GFDL as at 110KT hit directly in the same place on the Yucatan as Dean, Meto and GFS have shifted northwards though at the 144 mark, FSU also has shifted northwards taking him near Cuba, ECM will be the model to look at as it really handled the ridge very well last time with Dean.

HWRF is again rather strange.

Every chance this could become a major cane with a direct hit into belize or a Yucatan glance and then into the GOM. Still a few structural issues to sort out in the short time though.

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

070901 0000 070901 1200 070902 0000 070902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.9N 59.3W 12.6N 62.3W 13.4N 65.2W 14.3N 68.4W

BAMD 11.9N 59.3W 12.5N 62.6W 13.2N 65.9W 14.0N 69.4W

BAMM 11.9N 59.3W 12.6N 62.4W 13.4N 65.4W 14.4N 68.7W

LBAR 11.9N 59.3W 12.5N 62.4W 13.4N 66.0W 14.1N 69.6W

SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 58KTS

DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

070903 0000 070904 0000 070905 0000 070906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.4N 71.4W 17.3N 77.2W 19.1N 82.1W 21.2N 86.4W

BAMD 14.8N 72.9W 15.9N 78.6W 16.8N 82.9W 18.3N 86.8W

BAMM 15.4N 71.9W 17.2N 77.4W 18.9N 81.9W 20.9N 86.2W

LBAR 15.0N 73.1W 15.9N 79.4W 15.8N 84.5W .0N .0W

SHIP 66KTS 83KTS 94KTS 100KTS

DSHP 66KTS 83KTS 94KTS 68KTS

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...MICROWAVE

SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE

SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER IN

THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ELONGATION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A

CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT

EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS DATA ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT DATA AND

SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION

IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND IT COULD BECOME A

TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WINDWARD

ISLANDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. THE DEPRESSION

IS CURRENTLY IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF

HURRICANE DEAN...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WESTWARD BUILDING

LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST FOUR

DAYS... CAUSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED

THROUGH 36 HR...THEN SOME SPREAD OCCURS. THE HWRF AND THE SHALLOW

AND MEDIUM MEAN LAYER BAM MODELS FORECAST A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION

TO A 120 HR POSITION NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE THE REMAINDER

OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE TO BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN

YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE HWRF SHOWS THE STORM DISSIPATING DURING THE

FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR ITS MORE NORTHWARD FORECAST

TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINDER OF

THE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Dvorak has increase to 2.5 ( 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb ) which would equate to a TS Felix. Might not be enough though.

[SnowBear]

lol HWRF definitely takes the scenic route!!

But, then again, its not unknown for a storm to get caught in between surrounding highs and lows and stall or "eddy" for a day or so, even loop the loop.

Tend to think not in this storms case though!

Too early for a really accurate picture of what this one will do, though looks very much like a landfall on the Yucatan again, like they need that!

Edited September 1, 2007 by SnowBear

[SnowBear]

Latest multi-track.

A further north consensus by the models, not looking good for those areas hit by H.Dean, think we will see a further shift north eventually though, possibly clipping the Yucatan rather than crossing it.

[Iceberg]

Good CDO and convection in the Centre now, with outflow more and more evident.

Agree re the northward shift, interesting that the GM's are doing this as well, still waiting for ECM now.

ECM is now out and doesn't shift north but goes for a Belize hit.

Edited September 1, 2007 by Iceberg

[kold weather]

Well TD6 is going to be upgraded as the latest models have ran at 35kts which is tropical storm strength, so we do have at last Felix.

It currently has good banding with a CDO now evident as Iceberg has already said, some fairly deep convection with it though like Dean its not that intense compared to maybe what you'd expect. Still it is looking very good right now with a good inflow channel and outflow becoming a little more evident as well.

As for the future track, models have shifted north but the two models that proved very good with Dean both take this through Belize with a landfall a little to the south of Dean however there are a lot of models that have shifted northwards and there does appear to be a weak weakness present in 3-4 days time which may be just enough to give Felix a more NW type motion but its very tight now and not that easy of a forecast to make. The NHC will shift northwards but not all that much due to the ECM and the GFS. However i do think the two big global models are closer in terms of the track.

In terms of strength, latest SHIPS takes Felix upto 93kts however if it reaches W.Caribbean tthen there is still plenty of heat content left (though Dean has reduced the amounts somewhat) for a strong major hurricane to hit, it probably won't reach cat-5 like Dean but no reason why it can't reach cat-3/4. In the short term in close interaction with south America will limit rapid development a little but it should get going once it pulls a little too the north. My closest storm Edith also became a cat-5 breifly though I'm not sure the heat content is quite there for Felix to get that high, it shows that the area can support extremely strong hurricanes and we shouldn't rule out cat-5, even if I think there may not be quite good enough set-up for that, you never know in the W.Caribbean at this time of year!

Edited September 1, 2007 by kold weather

[mettalfabrik]

just out of interest the latest last nine hrs of metar from point salines GRENADA

sorry about the layout will do something about that!

i,ll update in about 6hrs

Edited September 1, 2007 by blackdown

[Paranoid]

Wikipedia is a bit out of date. According to them TD6 doesn't even exist :o .

Is there any chance of this going into the GOM? Because we've had one Cat 5 already this year and those areas don't really need another.

[SnowBear]

Personally I think there is quite a high chance of this one making it to the GoM, either directly through the Yucatan Cuba gap or across the Yucatan itself. Although it is still really a little too far out to make a true prediction, I am mindful of how storms can skim round the NE Yucatan.

Time will tell!

[Iceberg]

GFDL goes for a Belize hit as well now in the 06Z.

Dvorak has increase to 3 ( 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb)

This makes Felix quite a bit stronger than the NHC forecast, without any new recon it will be interesting to see what they go for.

[Iceberg]

RADAR IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATED THE CENTER PASSED VERY NEAR

GRENADA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ISLAND OBSERVING 1005 MB BEFORE THE

WEATHER STATION STOPPED REPORTING. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE AND

RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX IS FORMING A SMALL INNER CORE WITH

TIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE

JUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69

KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILL

BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

Rapid intensification does seem to be occuring, Felix will probably be a Hurricane tomorrow.

000

URNT12 KNHC 011430

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007

A. 01/14:12:20Z

B. 12 deg 14 min N

063 deg 27 min W

C. NA mb NA m

D. 49 kt

E. 339 deg 010 nm

F. 068 deg 052 kt

G. 339 deg 009 nm

H. EXTRAP 1001 mb

I. 22 C/ 368 m

J. 25 C/ 375 m

K. 24 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/ 1

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF306 0306A FELIX OB 03

MAX FL WIND 52 KT N QUAD 14:06:00 Z

MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 56KT AT 14:21:00 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[summer blizzard]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Kold, there is still more than enougth heat available for a category 5, but due to Dean, if it does hit the Yucutan, it would probably weaken before lanfall.

RAPID DEVELOPMENT is now occuring, at 07:30 this morning, Felix was at 40mph with 1005 mb, seven hours later at 14:30, Felix is now at 1001mb and a 65mph Tropical Storm, if this rate of development contines, Felix will be a hurricane before the day is out.

[Iceberg]

I agree the ocean heat would have recovered by now from Dean.

Ony 61Kt flight winds but 59Kt recorded at the surface.

I also agree that rapid intensification does seem to be occuring, it sounds from the reports that there is good structure and banding which should make the eye formation easier.

A. 01/16:12:20Z

B. 12 deg 21 min N

063 deg 58 min W

C. NA mb NA m

D. 59 kt

E. 006 deg 017 nm

F. 151 deg 061 kt

G. 060 deg 017 nm

H. EXTRAP 1000 mb

I. 22 C/ 391 m

J. 24 C/ 395 m

K. 23 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/1

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF306 0406A FELIX OB 02

MAX FL WIND 61 KT NE QUAD 16:06:30 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

Recon just in sub 1000mb pressure now being recorded,, Just.!

170600 1230N 06413W 9657 00300 9994 +232 +232 105025 029 036 000 03

170630 1228N 06414W 9652 00306 9994 +239 +236 107017 020 034 000 03

[summer blizzard]

Winds should now be rounded to 60KT, which is 70mph, FELIX WILL BE A HURRICANE BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.

[Iceberg]

Confirmation of the 999mb

Also 70Kt flight winds now found probably an upgrade to 60Kt at the next advisory.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007

A. 01/17:07:10Z

B. 12 deg 27 min N

064 deg 14 min W

C. NA mb NA m

D. 50 kt

E. 142 deg 026 nm

F. 181 deg 052 kt

G. 142 deg 026 nm

H. EXTRAP 999 mb

I. 22 C/ 400 m

J. 24 C/ 405 m

K. 24 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/1

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF306 0406A FELIX OB 05

MAX FL WIND 61 KT NE QUAD 16:04:30 Z

MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 70KTS @ 17:14:00Z

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED AND NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 100 MILES...160 KM FROM THE CENTER.

There has been a further shift northwards in the models and re-entry into the GOM is a very real possibility.

Edited September 1, 2007 by Iceberg

[kold weather]

There is enough heat content left for a cat-5 but who knows its early days and it does require very good condtions, it took Dean right uptill the highest heat content in the entire atlantic basin to become a cat-5 and Felix will be just south of those waters IMO. Despite that it has got a major factors in its favor in that its a compact tight system.

Anyway make no mistake Felix is rapidly on its way to hurricane status and such a tight compact core has meant that no land interaction has occured with its core at all which has relaly meant that Felix has been able to develop rapidly under some decnt upper atmopsheric condtions. The only slight uncertainty is the western section of the system does look a touch weak in terms of convection as there is some slightly dry air present to the north of the system which Felix is dragging down on its western side however there is some very deep convection on the eastern where no doubt some of the highest winds wil lbe. Should be a hurricane tonight and cat-2 tomorrow though I won't go further then that right now as the weak convection on the western side could limit it a touch until it gets further west into ever increasing heat content though by that time it'll be knocking on the door of major status IMO.

Still long term Felix is very likely to be an extremely dangerous hurricane and cat-5 is a possiblity, next 3-4 days should see a track siimlar to Edith which did make it to cat-5. We'll see in that regards what happens, its going to be very interesting to watch Felix as its another low rider into a very favorable Caribbean and going to be our 2nd major of the season IMO. Cat-4/5 most likely, if it goes int othe Gulf of Honduras then cat-5 is a real possiblity, if not then 130-150mph range seems good. Felix could well beocme a cat-4 long before that point however, heat content and shear profiles both look more then good enough.

In terms of track, not buying any northward model shift yet, the same models took Dean into Texas and were too north, track should still be close to Honduras and maybe into the Gulf of Honduras, indeed Felix's track is already a little to othe south of most model guidence. Beyond the first landflal, a NW track looks more possible, tohugh it still looks to be a Mexico hit there is a ltitle uncertainty about the strength of any low that forms from the Se states which may cause a weakness in the strong high pressure belt and allow a more northerly track, we'll have to see, the ECm/GFS don't make anything of it and they nailed Dean's track.

Edited September 1, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.

It's been raised again as expected and is 5Kt short of a hurricane, no new recon.

[kold weather]

They'll hold at 60kts until recon can find higher, right now Dvarok still hods at 3.5 which equates to about 60kts, probably because of the slight dry air intrusion into the western section of the convection but the deep convection on the eastern side likely holds hurricane force winds IMO right now. Dry air intrusion should go away in the next 6hrs and when it does Felix could very rapidly go to cat-2/3 as it develops a eye and eyewall. By the way Felix is going to go very close to an area of high heat content around 48-60hrs time so we'll see how powerful Felix could get at that point, probably will be cat-4 by that point.

(ps, I think the NHC will be very close to the mark but if it takes that track it'll be a god deal stronger then the NHC forecasts, note even the conservative NHC go for 110kts at landfall, strong cat-3 would prove extremely dangeorus for that region.)

Edited September 1, 2007 by kold weather

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL STORM FELIX IS NOW A HURRICANE....

Thread title should be changed accordingly..

Latest recon is in, and they have found a central pressure of 993mb, with 65KT winds at the surface, that equates to 75mph sustained winds, hurricane strength, and believe it or not, but we do not even have a closed eyewall yet, it is still open on its northwestern side.

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm FELIX is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Grenada

probability for TS is 70% currently

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

probability for TS is 60% currently

Honduras

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Nicaragua

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

Belize

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

Guatemala

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

will be watching this with intrest

[summer blizzard]

000

URNT12 KWBC 012319

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 1/2241Z

B. 12 DEG 29 MIN N

65 DEG 43 MIN W

C. NA

D. NA

E. NA

F. 129 DEG 77 KT

G. 050 DEG 14 NM

H. 993 MB

I. 16 C/2423 M

J. 17 C/2450 M

K. 14 C/NA

L. OPEN NE

M. C 30

N. 12345/NA

O. 1/2 NM

P. NOAA2 0506A FELIX OB 09

MAX FL WIND 77 KT NE QUAD 2238Z

Latest recon has 80mph at the surface..

[summer blizzard]

BULLETIN

HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007

800 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WATCH FOR JAMAICA...

AT 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS

THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF

ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT

155 MILES...250 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT

270 MILES...435 KM...EAST OF ARUBA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE

ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY

MORNING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FELIX A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE

HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD

UP TO 15 MILES...25 KM...FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE

NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER

IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE

ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF

ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...12.6 N...66.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cookie]

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Venezuela

probability for TS is 85% currently

Aruba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Honduras

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Nicaragua

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Belize

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Guatemala

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Colombia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours