Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Major Hurricane Felix


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

Latest BBC story

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6974643.stm

NOAA Public Advisory

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...

70 KM...NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...

EAST OF ARUBA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GENERAL

MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF FELIX JUST

NORTH OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL

HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW AT

LEAST 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY

ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE

PLANE WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Looking good and nothe verge of a Cat 2 with the 10% reduction of flight winds.

Pressure is probably a little lower than below in the vortex reading,as recon are finding sub 985mb pressure.

054100 1241N 06741W 6963 03011 9847 +128 +089 093007 010 020 003 00

054130 1243N 06742W 6965 03013 9848 +127 +084 070018 022 028 002 00

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007

A. 02/05:40:40Z

B. 12 deg 40 min N

067 deg 40 min W

C. 700 mb 2975 m

D. 71 kt

E. 134 deg 007 nm

F. 236 deg 055 kt

G. 142 deg 012 nm

H. 986 mb

I. 6 C/ 3053 m

J. 13 C/ 3045 m

K. 9 C/ NA

L. OPEN NNE

M. C30

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF306 0606A FELIX OB 09

MAX FL WIND 93 KT N QUAD 05:09:00 Z

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Low lying and totally exposed Belize city is not a good place to see a hurricane of any description. Let alone a CAT 3+.

Bit more info when in 1961 Belize city was totally destroyed by a Hurricane

"Hurricane Hattie was a powerful Category 5 hurricane that hit Central America on Halloween during the 1961 Atlantic hurricane season. It caused millions of US dollars in damages and killed around 275 people. Hattie is the only hurricane on record to have earned three names (Hattie, Simone, Inga) while crossing into different basins twice.

Hattie swept across the Caribbean and came ashore in the town of Belize City, British Honduras (now Belize), on October 31. It was a strong Category 4 hurricane at landfall, having weakened from a Category 5 just offshore. After making landfall, its remnants crossed over into the Pacific and attained tropical storm status again under the name Simone. In a remarkable turn of events, after Simone itself made landfall, its remnants crossed back over to the Gulf of Mexico, where the storm became Tropical Storm Inga before dissipating."

Edited by Iceberg
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah Felix is on the verge of cat-2 status as was suspected with recon reporting a large 30 mile eye though right now it shows no signs of emerging however the temp gradient inside the core is increasing which is a sign of a fairly healthy system. Recon found flight levl winds of between 90-93kts as a max and the SFMR estimated surface wind sof 93kts which is a cat-2 and so there is a fair chance that the NHC will up Felix to a category-2 this morning. Honestly i can't see anything that can really stop Felix from becoming a very powerful cat-4/5 other then EWRC and maybe in 72-96hrs, land interaction as it goes very close to Honduras could also be a limiter but thats not for another 72hrs.

The atmospheric condtions look very good for strong development through to a cat-4, then it all depends on the inner core organisation as to whether it'll try for cat-5 and become the second of the year, something which has only happened 3 times, its that rare. Right now all I can say is the atmosphere and heat content do appear to be there for a cat-5.

Track still looks pretty simple, pretty much between 270-280 degrees for the next 3-4 days with maybe a slight adjustment to the north past then as a upper low digs down over the USA.

Closest match to Felix still looks to be hurricane Edith from 1971 for the next 4 days though the track probably won't turn NW like Edith overland and will probably continue to the WNW under a strong ridge.

(ps, Belize City could well be at risk from Felix and it'll probably be on the northern side of the system, personally I think it'll be further south then that, maybe somewhere like Placentia village)

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Offical cat-2 hurricane now as suspected a short time ago:

HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007

330 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

CORRECTED HEADER

FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE DATA RECENTLY RECEIVED FROM THE UNITED

STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE FELIX HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH...160

KM/HR...MAKING FELIX A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE SCALE.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

once Felix gets in to the golf of Mexico at the moment it looks like it could build and head for Texas

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

Edited by tinybill
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Are you sure thats the GFDL track Iceberg, I thought the GFDL tracks further south bordering Honduras, that track looks exactly the same as the HWRF:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/we...ts/storm_06.gif

Nearly all the models are taking Felix towards N.Belize/S.Yucatan right now but note the intial motion is more westerly then nearly all the models have at that stage and may mean a track further south then the models show is likely, esp knowing those models also took Dean into Texas.

By the way while you can't totally rule out the risk for Texas I'd say its less then 10% right now and probably much less then that as well.

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Doing a bit of digging it's using the NHC plot rather than model plots.

I agree a southward shift is probably likely.

Eye looks fantastic on Doppler atm and a CAT 3 this afternoon looks very likely. Sub 980 pressure I would hazard is there as well. Winds should still be reponding too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

At present the steering layers show a shift north/NW after Felix (the Cat2) passes Yukatan

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...c/winds/wg8dlm6.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

I'm gonna update wikipedia's hurricane page, as according to them Felix doesn't exist. Could someone give me all the basic data, such as windspeed, pressure, date of last advisory, position and forward speed/direction.

EDIT: Scrap that actually, someone's done something about it :)

Edited by Paranoid
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Forecast has been upped to a strong CAT 4 hit still on Belize very near Belize city.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.3N 81.9W

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 87.0W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Forecast has been upped to a strong CAT 4 hit still on Belize very near Belize city.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.3N 81.9W

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 87.0W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

That is not a good scenario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, Essex - 6.2m asl
  • Location: Shoeburyness, Essex - 6.2m asl
At present the steering layers show a shift north/NW after Felix (the Cat2) passes Yukatan

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...c/winds/wg8dlm6.

That link doesn't seem to work Gray-Wolf. Can you post a thumbnail?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Felix has become the 2nd hurricane of the Atlantic season with winds of 75 mph and is expected to gain strength as it moves through the Caribbean.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=3550644

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT0...0gif/085023.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT0.../085023W_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...l?3day#contents

Edited by weathermaster
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
That link doesn't seem to work Gray-Wolf. Can you post a thumbnail?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ds/wg8dlm6.html

is this better? Check each layer for an idea of movements (it changes daily though!)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Aruba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Curacao (12.1 N, 69.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Venezuela

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Colombia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

its starting to look very impressive

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Some very gud images thier.

an update

Hurricane FELIX is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% currently

probability for TS is 95% currently

Aruba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Venezuela

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Colombia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Edited by cookie
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...