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Major Hurricane Felix


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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

Apologies Steve, I think that was the 24 hour record for the deepening for Wilma. I will post the quote directly from the NOAA site as it gives various records for Wilma.

Wilma was the fastest deepening hurricane ever on record in the Atlantic Basin. In 6 hours, Wilma deepened 54mb. In 12 hours, Wilma deepened 83mb, and in 24 hours, Wilma deepened 97mb. These totals were taken from observations from 12Z, October 18th to 12Z, October 19th. Data on this record goes back to 1851.

I have corrected initial post, Thanks for spotting the error!

Edited by SnowBear
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

So has Felix (the cat3) technically 'bombed' over the past 18hrs then?

GFDL: Didn't we see a mystery cane a few days back (on the forcast models) form in the pacific (over the isthmus) and then plough north (whilst deepening) into southern California.?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah I think it has Gray-wolf, its gone from a Td to cat-3 hurricane in the space of 45hrs, very impressive indeed!

Felix is currently a 125mph hurricane, recon should take another pass at Felix's core fairly soon and we'll see what that comes up with, wouldn't surprise me to see 125-130kts at flight level which would take it very close to cat-4. Could well be close to cat-5 in about 18hrs time by the way.

By the way it should be noted that Felix track wil ltake it towards a very poor part of central America and while that region slightly dogded the Dean bullet a cat-4/5 direct hit *could* kill hundreds, maybe thousands, previous hurricanes such as mitch and Fifi have done so in the area where Felix is progged to hit. IMO Honduras clips S.eyewall, S.Belize takes full brunt of an extremely powerful and dangerous hurricane, maybe not quite as strong due to land interaction but still going to be a major hurricane.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Latest Ships agree's with the CAT 5 Scenario.

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

070902 1800 070903 0600 070903 1800 070904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.4N 71.1W 14.3N 74.4W 15.3N 77.4W 15.9N 80.2W

BAMD 13.4N 71.1W 14.3N 74.5W 15.2N 77.6W 15.9N 80.2W

BAMM 13.4N 71.1W 14.2N 74.6W 15.2N 78.0W 15.9N 80.9W

LBAR 13.4N 71.1W 14.2N 74.4W 15.3N 77.8W 16.2N 80.9W

SHIP 110KTS 123KTS 129KTS 133KTS

DSHP 110KTS 123KTS 129KTS 133KTS

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep 133kts just a shade below cat-5, would make it a very powerful cat-4 however i suspect given its current development Felix could be as strong at 36hrs in just half the time, indeed the SHIPS take Felix up 13kts in just 12hrs a clear sign of pretty quick intensefication.

Iceberg, that track would take the system very close to Belize city...the two systems that made landflal both has major loss of life, one was the 1931 hurricane which killed 2,500 people, even Hattie in 1961 killed 275 people, coming in as a strong cat-4.

Current models show strong agreement wit hthe outlier GFDL:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

By the way its Sat.imagery right now is even better then Dean as a cat-4, Dean didn't look this good till it went cat-5. Felix is rapidly strengthening and look more and more likely to be a cat-5 in the next 12-18hrs. how strong can it get is a little more uncertain, a small core ssytem will mean pressure won't be as low as it could be in a larger system but needless to say looking at Felix currently it'll almost certainly be rapidly deepening. Can't really believe we could see another cat-5, recent years have been pumping them out with ease it seems!!!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Yep close to Belize City about 40-50 miles north, so keeping it in the quieter southern side probably CAT 1 or CAT 2 winds.

I posted something about Hattie back a few pages ago truely an exceptional storm.

Recon just turning round to start another pass.

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Bit of extra excitement for our glorious boys on 'Jungle survival' ops then? they'll not be in Crappy tin huts huddled against one another though (and probably back on a carrier/supply ship long before anything happens) Still, at least we'll be there to stick on the 'band aids' though.....

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

If Felix does pass close to Belize City, at least the hurricane force winds only extend around 15NM from the centre of the storm. That could help reduce damage, although if Felix hits Belize city directly then we should expect heavy casulties.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The fear has to be Paranoid that it'll time its EWRC just right like Dean, any such replacement of the eye will loosen up the pressure gradient and spread the stronger hurricane winds out somewhat and to boot it'd be strengthening on the way in.

Iceberg, yep not surprised they've upped Dvorak to 6.0, I think Felix will be a cat-4 soon enough, both the pressure and the winds should soon start to respond even more so to the ever improving Sat.picture right now, it looks to me to be about 135-140mph in terms of strength and should continue to rapidly strengthen till it hits its peak probably some time tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

A little bit of interest here, we see a lot in the summer in the UK when it is mentioned about Lifted Index. A page here explains that value a little. http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/helpdocs/liftindex.html (edited to give a better page explaining LI)

Now, we all go oooo, ahhhh when we might get a value of -1, -2 or -3...

Load the loop below, toggle LI, I can make out some -7, possibly a -8! ;)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

Edited by SnowBear
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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

018

URNT15 KNHC 021857

AF305 0806A FELIX HDOB 23 20070902

184730 1328N 07148W 6969 03114 0032 +074 +074 017049 050 999 999 03

184800 1328N 07147W 6968 03109 0044 +060 +060 018053 054 999 999 03

184830 1328N 07145W 6965 03103 0023 +068 +068 015056 059 999 999 03

184900 1328N 07144W 6970 03085 9985 +086 +086 013062 063 999 999 03

184930 1328N 07142W 6965 03079 9987 +074 +074 010066 068 999 999 03

185000 1329N 07140W 6972 03057 9973 +074 +074 009072 074 999 999 03

185030 1329N 07139W 6966 03047 9944 +080 +080 009077 079 999 999 03

185100 1329N 07137W 6966 03026 9918 +082 +082 006083 084 999 999 03

185130 1329N 07136W 6967 02995 9869 +094 +094 002092 095 999 999 03

185200 1329N 07134W 6971 02949 9837 +084 +084 357100 103 999 999 03

185230 1329N 07133W 6959 02907 9783 +076 +076 355111 114 999 999 05

185300 1329N 07131W 6970 02816 9686 +086 +086 347089 108 999 999 03

185330 1329N 07129W 6973 02767 9568 +146 +134 355042 055 999 999 03

185400 1330N 07127W 6970 02756 9542 +156 +134 027017 021 999 999 03

185430 1330N 07126W 6964 02754 9544 +144 +134 035005 010 999 999 03 Eye

185500 1329N 07124W 6970 02744 9530 +156 +130 171010 013 999 999 03

185530 1330N 07122W 6965 02749 9524 +160 +134 159023 030 999 999 03

185600 1331N 07121W 6969 02750 9534 +156 +136 150045 051 999 999 03

185630 1332N 07119W 6970 02776 9574 +144 +144 149073 088 999 999 03

185700 1334N 07118W 6971 02821 9683 +094 +094 151118 128 999 999 05

$$

Edited by SnowBear
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah Steve this system does look like its heading for cat-5, i'm watching just in case of signs of eyewall replacement but see none so far so looks like Felix is going to continue to rapidly strength over the next 12hrs and i can only assume at the rate its been developing over the previous 24hrs that it could be a very strong cat-5 at that. At present Felix looks every bit as good as Dean did when it became a cat-5, some really deep convection over core of the system which took Dean till the last 12hrs over the Caribbean to get and we saw how Dean strengthened during that period, Felix could do the same but will have far more time to peak out. It just about has the perfect shape for a hurricane to beocme cat-5.

By the way recon found extrap pressure of 952mbs, Felix rapidly deepening and becoming stronger and stronger, pressur ein the eye down to 954mbs, quick deepning that is!

Pressure will always be a little higher then you'd expect due to the hurricane having a very tight core.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

The 128Kt on the outer eye wall could go higher, it is just enought to warrant at 115KT CAT 4 but 130+ is needed to be safe.

Missed D. 120 kt from the vortex a CAT 4 is almost certain now, maybe NHC will issue another update.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah they probably will issue another update given Dvorak also supports a cat-4, not relaly al lthat surprising given the way it currently looks on Sat.imagery and with all its very deep convection as well this system will keep on ramping up. 128kts is borderline for a cat-4 upgrade but this time as its supported by something else plus vortex message they may well go along with it.

By the way Felix has a classic stadium effect right now as well, textbook looking system and one that surely is destined to be a cat-5 looking at its current development. like hurricane Emily in 05 it mayonly take a central pressure of around 925-930mbs to get a cat-5 with this one.

Edited by kold weather
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The 128Kt on the outer eye wall could go higher, it is just enought to warrant at 115KT CAT 4 but 130+ is needed to be safe.

Missed D. 120 kt from the vortex a CAT 4 is almost certain now, maybe NHC will issue another update.

they may just hold back using a 85% ratio rather than 90%

S

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

807

URNT15 KNHC 021907

AF305 0806A FELIX HDOB 24 20070902

185730 1335N 07117W 6966 02903 9794 +072 +072 150130 132 999 999 05

185800 1336N 07115W 6958 02975 9873 +064 +064 145121 125 999 999 05

185830 1337N 07114W 6973 02999 9922 +064 +064 144111 116 999 999 05

185900 1339N 07113W 6964 03041 9932 +082 +082 146100 103 999 999 03

185930 1340N 07112W 6969 03064 9973 +076 +076 144094 095 999 999 03

190000 1341N 07111W 6970 03077 0012 +060 +060 135084 084 999 999 05

190030 1342N 07109W 6965 03095 0022 +062 +062 130082 084 999 999 05

190100 1343N 07108W 6966 03102 0023 +068 +068 132081 085 999 999 03

190130 1345N 07107W 6970 03107 0018 +080 +080 133077 079 999 999 03

190200 1346N 07106W 6969 03116 0020 +084 +084 133079 079 999 999 03

190230 1347N 07105W 6966 03123 0027 +082 +082 135075 077 999 999 03

190300 1348N 07104W 6968 03126 0025 +088 +088 138073 074 999 999 03

190330 1349N 07102W 6969 03132 0030 +090 +090 138069 070 999 999 03

190400 1351N 07101W 6969 03135 0035 +090 +090 135068 069 999 999 03

190430 1352N 07100W 6968 03142 0046 +086 +086 134066 068 999 999 03

190500 1353N 07059W 6969 03144 0058 +080 +080 135065 065 999 999 03

190530 1354N 07057W 6968 03147 0065 +076 +076 131062 063 999 999 03

190600 1356N 07056W 6966 03152 0057 +084 +084 133060 060 999 999 03

190630 1357N 07055W 6969 03152 0067 +080 +080 133060 060 999 999 03

190700 1358N 07054W 6967 03155 0070 +078 +078 133056 058 999 999 03

130knt in the eyewall

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
807

URNT15 KNHC 021907

AF305 0806A FELIX HDOB 24 20070902

185730 1335N 07117W 6966 02903 9794 +072 +072 150130 132 999 999 05

185800 1336N 07115W 6958 02975 9873 +064 +064 145121 125 999 999 05

185830 1337N 07114W 6973 02999 9922 +064 +064 144111 116 999 999 05

185900 1339N 07113W 6964 03041 9932 +082 +082 146100 103 999 999 03

185930 1340N 07112W 6969 03064 9973 +076 +076 144094 095 999 999 03

190000 1341N 07111W 6970 03077 0012 +060 +060 135084 084 999 999 05

190030 1342N 07109W 6965 03095 0022 +062 +062 130082 084 999 999 05

190100 1343N 07108W 6966 03102 0023 +068 +068 132081 085 999 999 03

190130 1345N 07107W 6970 03107 0018 +080 +080 133077 079 999 999 03

190200 1346N 07106W 6969 03116 0020 +084 +084 133079 079 999 999 03

190230 1347N 07105W 6966 03123 0027 +082 +082 135075 077 999 999 03

190300 1348N 07104W 6968 03126 0025 +088 +088 138073 074 999 999 03

190330 1349N 07102W 6969 03132 0030 +090 +090 138069 070 999 999 03

190400 1351N 07101W 6969 03135 0035 +090 +090 135068 069 999 999 03

190430 1352N 07100W 6968 03142 0046 +086 +086 134066 068 999 999 03

190500 1353N 07059W 6969 03144 0058 +080 +080 135065 065 999 999 03

190530 1354N 07057W 6968 03147 0065 +076 +076 131062 063 999 999 03

190600 1356N 07056W 6966 03152 0057 +084 +084 133060 060 999 999 03

190630 1357N 07055W 6969 03152 0067 +080 +080 133060 060 999 999 03

190700 1358N 07054W 6967 03155 0070 +078 +078 133056 058 999 999 03

130knt in the eyewall

I wish I could translate those.

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