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Major Hurricane Felix


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

If i had to go with an estimate right now I'd say 946mbs with 145mph winds but it is getting its act on very nicely now so the winds should continue to rise as the winds and pressure continue to respond to the impressive structure Felix has right now. Remember while pressure may not seem all that impressive but in this sort of hurricane 925-930mbs should be gooe enough to get very close to category-5. Dean was 930mbs at 150mph before it underwent an EWRC and loosened up.

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

In a matter of a few hours at the rate its going. Could be anytime.

Edited by SnowBear
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Lets not get too crazy here, that was quite a wide eye that just 'contracted' back in. The sun'll be setting soon and the heat will be off. Still, seems a bit 'pokey' in that area .....I wonder what would happen to a 'formed storm' if it hit in there over the next couple of weeks???

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Lets not get too crazy here, that was quite a wide eye that just 'contracted' back in. The sun'll be setting soon and the heat will be off. Still, seems a bit 'pokey' in that area .....I wonder what would happen to a 'formed storm' if it hit in there over the next couple of weeks???

Nightfall means colder cloud tops and larger lapse rates, expect faster development.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Felix may be a cat-5 early tomorrow morning once it hits the area of high heat content just to tis WNW currently, not certain however as it does take close to perfect set-ups but its got a good shot given its current level of organisation and extremely impressive structure, I'd say it has a very good chance of reaching legendary cat-5 status. Anyway no real surprise from the new NHC forecast:

BULLETIN

HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007

500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND

CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36

HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES...

710 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115

MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956

MB...28.23 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES

OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...13.6 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

Dean has gone from a tropical depression to a cat-4 hurricane in about 36-42hrs, extremely rapid development that is!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I suppose we're all 'quite new to this kinda thing' (relatively) but my, oh my... there are some real 'hot spots' in and around the Caribbean these days that can really get storms a goin' (over my watching years' at least). Do you think it's always been that way (cyclically)?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

I wonder if that certain areas are more active over different periods. The carribean did seem to churn out quite a lot of strong Hurricanes in the 1970-80's, and the GOM has been pretty active in recent years, and was also active in the 1960's. Just a very loose theory with no real proof.

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

going back a few posts in regards to the speed of its intensity:

from TD @03 GMT Lat12.0 Lon59.9 wind35mph 1008mb to

Cat4 42 hrs later @21 GMT lat13.6 lon72.0 140mph 956mb sure is one fast development? non?

Wunder Clicky

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Posted
  • Location: Braintree
  • Location: Braintree

Latest Sat pic i could find.

post-6536-1188771365_thumb.jpg

Looking at all the model runs apart from the GDFL they all take Felix in to an area (WNW) with SST's a good 1.5 to 2 deg warmer that its over at present, also will be less shaded by land to the south so this system has almost perfect conditions to increase in size and strenght dramaticaly, think the models have under estimated is max wind speeds by a good 25knot's.

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Posted
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW!
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl

Wow, this is the fastest strengthening I've ever seen in a storm - this looks a perfect Cat 5 just 24 hours after reaching hurricane status

post-5563-1188775000_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

It'd b pretty rare to have 2 cat 5's in one season. Excluding 2005, the last time that happened was in 1961 i think.

Newsflash: Felix is cat 5. 934mbar 165mph winds. I'd post the advisory myself but at the moment i can't copy and paste.

Edited by Paranoid
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Posted
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW!
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl

Recon just been aborted due to turbulence and graupel - I've never known that to happen before. This hurricane looks just about as perfect as can be at the moment. Hopefully, there's some EWRCs in store to weaken it before it slams into land.

post-5563-1188778877_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

MAX SFC WND 163 FROM SFMR NE QUAD

EXTREME TURB NE EYEWALL

The FAA defines "extreme" turbulence as:

Turbulence in which the aircraft is violently tossed about and is practically impossible to control. It may cause structural damage.

(i.e. the kind that kills people)

SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 170MPH, WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 934MB...

Recon has been aborted due to the turbelance...

HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST

QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...

That is the scale of its power, if anybody knows anybody on holiday in any of the smaller Islands in its path, they should be advised to leave now, at 170mph with gusts well over 200mph, there will be no buildings left standing and they would most likely be dead if they try ride this out....

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Felix has dropped 28mb in the past six hours between the latest advisory...

In the six hours from the advisory before backward, Felix dropped 24mb, so the rate of rapid development is increasing.

Felix has dropped 47mb in the past 12 hours...

Felix has dropped 59mb in the past 24 hours...

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX

HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT

REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS

OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND

IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN

CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST

QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A

SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE.

BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT

LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB

WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND

GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING

ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND

FORECAST INTENSITIES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING

MADE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE

SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0000Z 13.8N 72.9W 145 KT

12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 150 KT

24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 145 KT

36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 145 KT

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Posted
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Ash, Surrey/Hampshire Border Farnborough 4 miles

I see on NHC satellite imagery there is a Gill around. Anyone know where this little beastie might be?

Andy

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