TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon FITOW

[Cookie]

Typhoon FITOW is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

[Cookie]

Typhoon FITOW is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the updates Cookie. Fitow has been really struggling over the last few days, it lost typhoon status last night but has regained it this morning. Initially, rapid intensification was forecast, but Fitow has only managed a peak of 80kts so far (cat 1 on saffir-simpson scale). Some slight strengthening is anticipated over warm sea temps but the main reason for Fitow not intensifying rapidly is because of dry air entering the storm from the north- which Fitow hasn't dealt with very well, hence the storm not being any stronger than a cat 1 so far. As you can see, the storm doesn't exactly look amazing at the moment:

There could be a little shear ahead of Fitow too, though nothing too strong it may hinder any rapid intensification aswell. I don't think this storm will get that much stronger than it is now- it is forecasted to reach cat 2 status which is plausable given the very warm sea temps.

[Cookie]

thanks for the update mate.

[Cookie]

Typhoon FITOW is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

[Cookie]

Typhoon FITOW is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours

has it moved direction?

[Somerset Squall]

has it moved direction?

Here is it's track, it's path has been very erratic.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_paci...2007/index.html

[Cookie]

yup very erattic

Typhoon FITOW is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Edited September 5, 2007 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

From JTWC:

TYPHOON (TY) 10W (FITOW) HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE

PAST 06 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RAGGED BANDING EYE.

THE STORM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

AN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE KOREAN

PENINSULA. THE STORM HAS ACCELERATED FROM A 10 KT SIX-HOURLY

SPEED TO A 12 KT SIX-HOURLY SPEED.

B. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR TY 10W IS 75 KTS, BASED

ON 4.5 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND PGTW, AND A 061200Z AMSU

INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KTS. THE STORM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW

INDUCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. ANIMATED INFRARED

IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO

THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE STORM CENTER IS CURRENTLY 100 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. A 060932Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS

THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION APPROACHING THE COAST OF JAPAN.

3. FORECAST REASONING.

A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED.

B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ITS POLEWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE AS

IT ENCOUNTERS THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE STRONG POLEWARD

OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO

LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN NEAR TAU 06. AFTER LANDFALL,

THE STORM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE

MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS, TO INCLUDE

NOGAPS AND GFS, FORECAST AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO IN WHICH THE MIDLEVEL

TC VORTEX ROTATES AROUND THE MIDLATITUDE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INTO THE

SEA OF JAPAN. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REMAINS EAST OF

CONSENSUS, CLOSEST TO THE EGRR MODEL. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD

BE COMPLETE NEAR TAU 36, JUST PAST MISAWA.

FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

[Cookie]

Typhoon FITOW is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

[dallas]

Great footage of a Hurricane Hunter flying into Felix,

http://www.airshowbuzz.com/videos/view.php?v=9f061057

[Cookie]

I think you've got the wrong thread mate

[dallas]

I think you've got the wrong thread mate

Ah cheers, on nights half asleep,

ta

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm FITOW is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

[Somerset Squall]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6982850.stm

[damienpaul]

I am in Tokyo, near the bay area. Hence, right in the path of Fitow..

We evacuated the school where I work midday on Thursday (local time) as many of our students and staff travel by train and kept it closed during Friday.

In the area where I live, we had approximately 110km/h sustained wind with some gusts up to 160km/h - one gust was much higher. Accompanying the wind was the torrential rain.

Minimal damage was done in the area where I live - although the sports centre on the factory roof that I can see from my balcony partly collapsed. A few trees down and not much else.

The skies literally cleared at around midday on Friday to a 30C humid day

[Cookie]

thanks for the report mate