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The ' I NEED TO SCREAM' thread.


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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire coast
  • Location: Lincolnshire coast

We don't know who you listened to at uni, SF, and they were clearly talking nonsense, but that has no bearing on the future. Certainly no-one I know in the Peak Oil community said that that North Sea oil would run out in 2000.

Of course higher prices leads to demand destruction, perhaps to the extent of global economic recession. How much of the current jitters in the money markets can be related to high energy prices is up for debate, but it is likely that the relationship between economic problems and geology will go unrecognised with people blaming all sorts of intermediate causes.

The idea that high energy prices make previously 'uneconomic reserves more economic' has to be seen in the light of the 'Law of Receeding Horizons'. The cost of everything involving energy, rises when energy prices rise. So an energy project that looked too expensive whaen energy was cheap remains too expensive when the energy price rises. The costs of steel and rubber and concrete and transport and labour are all found to have risen.

For a perceptive treatment of this topic see Chris Nelder's piece, Tar Sands: The Oil Junkie's Last Fix on The Oil Drum

Edited by biffvernon
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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
I'm getting fed up with a lot of the GW stuff. The only palliative to me at the moment is Terry Wogan's deliciously sardonic comments on it everytime we get a cool or wet spell.

Welcome to my world WIB, so glad it's not just me.

....and me! B)

Isn't it strange that how folk who have no conception of thinking scientifically, contribute to a weather forum. Ho hum.

Not really. Science is not the only way. It is not the be-all and end-all. I have mentioned (ad nauseum probably) a number of eminent scientists who have come out and said that they would have got a better "picture" of things if they had used a lot less science and a lot more observation.

My view is that scientists can become blinkered by their passion for their subject. No offence (nor pun) intended.

B)

Which, amusing though it is, goes to show how little he actually understands about the subject.

Then you could say that about everybody I know. For everyone in my family, my colleagues and my acquaintances are all of the same mind as Tel.

:lol:

Edited by noggin
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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
....and me! :lol:

Not really. Science is not the only way. It is not the be-all and end-all. I have mentioned (ad nauseum probably) a number of eminent scientists who have come out and said that they would have got a better "picture" of things if they had used a lot less science and a lot more observation.

My view is that scientists can become blinkered by their passion for their subject. No offence (nor pun) intended.

B)

But, that is offensive to said scientists surely? Or would it be hunky dory for me to say sceptics like you are blinkered by your lack of knowledge?

I once knew a geologist absolutely passionate about his subject. You know what? He was brilliant! He wealth of knowledge was simply awe inspiring. I learnt a terrific lot form him in only a few evening classes. Please don't diss passion! And please don't call it blinkering - it's enlightening!

Edited by Devonian
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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

It makes sense to be as unpolluting as possible. Surely it is not beyond the wit of man to devise a nice clean harmless fuel?

...and whoever invented the standby switch needs shooting. It was so simple to turn your telly on once....now I have to keep pressing this button and that button and the other button.

I was brought up to turn everything off and unplug it when it was not in use and to check that everything was unplugged at night. Seems sensible to me. Why complicate matters by having something half-on? Or is it half-off?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

This has got absolutely nothing to do with climate change but I found is fascinating (yup, I'm that sad), strange old world aint it.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Moving_T...he_Sun_999.html

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
But, that is offensive to said scientists surely?

Please don't diss passion! And please don't call it blinkering - it's enlightening!

Whoaa there, Dev. I said "no offence intended".

As for dissing passion...I didn't and never would. I might even take offence at you telling me that I had done so, but I'll let you off as I'm in a good mood this morning. B) :lol:

This has got absolutely nothing to do with climate change but I found is fascinating (yup, I'm that sad), strange old world aint it.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Moving_T...he_Sun_999.html

I like that, Jethro. Sounds quite reasonable to me as well, IYKWIM!

Edited by noggin
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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
Whoaa there, Dev. I said "no offence intended".

As for dissing passion...I didn't and never would. I might even take offence at you telling me that I had done so, but I'll let you off as I'm in a good mood this morning. B) B)

So, if I were to call some bloke something all I have to do is to say 'no offence intended' and I'll not get flattened?

Not on this planet :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

This is a prime example of why I feel like screaming. Here we have a professional, actually not just a professional but the president of the Royal Meteorological Society (someone, who in my view should know better), declaring that not only has this summer been utterly extraordinary - it hasn't, it's happened before - but also announcing that this is only a taste of the troubles that lie ahead due to AGW. Aaaaargh!!!!! Is it any wonder this whole thing goes round in ever decreasing circles when this kind of thing is published.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/sto...2160710,00.html

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
So, if I were to call some bloke something all I have to do is to say 'no offence intended' and I'll not get flattened?

Not on this planet B)

Not on mine either. I spoke the truth as I see it. People need to be "big" enough to accept that everyone is entitled to their own point of view. Just because people disagree it does not follow that offence is intended. I meant no offence. I put thought into my words so as not to cause offence. I took every precaution against causing offence. I was neither abusive nor aggressive. Now if someone wants to take offence after all the precautions I have taken, then they must be extremely touchy and /or not confident in their knowledge. For instance, I would not take offence if someone called me a fat old cow, because I know that I am not a fat old cow. :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Been called a barmy old cow more than once......

Going back to the singing Sun, seem to remember reading once about the pyramids being built so that the chambers resonate to a particular note, anyone got a clue about this? Given that they worshipped the Sun God, wouldn't it be spooky if it turned out their chambers and the Sun were playing the same tune? Coincidence or other worldly?

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
Not on mine either. I spoke the truth as I see it. People need to be "big" enough to accept that everyone is entitled to their own point of view. Just because people disagree it does not follow that offence is intended. I meant no offence. I put thought into my words so as not to cause offence. I took every precaution against causing offence. I was neither abusive nor aggressive. Now if someone wants to take offence after all the precautions I have taken, then they must be extremely touchy and /or not confident in their knowledge. For instance, I would not take offence if someone called me a fat old cow, because I know that I am not a fat old cow. B)

Well, I might say* truth is a lot of sceptics are pretty ignorant - no offence intended B) And if they do take offence at that I might say they must be either very sensitive or not confident in the lack of knowledge :lol:

But, I do accept you meant to offence, I just seek to point out how it might not read that way.

* but it's not my style

Edited by Devonian
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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
This is a prime example of why I feel like screaming.

Think I'll join you! "Extraordinary forces".... my foot! "Unforseen circumstances".....well there you go. Circumstances change. Who knows what other spanners will get thrown into the well-oiled works of climate change and what the effects will be? Heavens above......it might be discovered that the Sun has an effect! Shock. Horror.

Was there all this hoohah when 1956 broke the previous wet Summer record? (I was only a little baby then, so I don't remember it. Although my Mum used to tell me about the snow of February 1956 and how awful it was trying to get to the maternity hospital to have moi!)

Edited by noggin
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire coast
  • Location: Lincolnshire coast
president of the Royal Meteorological Society (someone, who in my view should know better), declaring that not only has this summer been utterly extraordinary - it hasn't, it's happened before

When?

When have we seen the combination of events that Geraint Vaughan descibes. And not just in Britain. A hurricane in the Arabian Sea. Record hurricane activity in the Pacific. Unusual monsoons. Two cat 5 Atlantic storms in a row. Less ice than ever in the Arctic.

Seems to me Vaughan is right on the button.

Not really. Science is not the only way.

It's the only way to study weather and climate. That's why I think it strange that so many contrarians, deniers and skepics use this forum. Maybe their home met stations are dominated by a piece of seaweed.

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Posted
  • Location: Thame, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Thame, Oxfordshire
ch: you have expressed what a lot of people seem to feel about this question: a mixture of confusion and worry. That you have the courage to admit it is laudable.

Most of us don't feel comfortable with science because we think it's too difficult. This is a shame, because most of it is written in English, and most of it can be understood by careful reading. The problem you describe, of apparently conflicting 'evidence', comes from not being able to tell for sure whether the science you are reading makes sense or not. This is especially important for you, if you don't trust the government. As far as trusting the media... always assume you need to check the facts for yourself, and assume that stories of imminent doom are exagerrations, is the simplest suggestion.

So, who should you trust to know the answers? Who would you go to if you were sick? Who would you go to if your car broke down? Who would you ask if you wanted to know what the weather was going to be like on Saturday?

It is common sense to get your answers from the experts. They are the climate scientists. There are thousands of them around the world. All of them have degrees, and many of them doctorates; they got these through study, hard work and knowing their subjects. Climate scientists know what they are doing. they also know what is wrong with some of the things they have done, and try to fix them, They also know all of the things that we lay-people argue about here on NW, and often know the answers (but not always).

Almost all climate scientists agree that CO2 is having an effect on the world; it is causing it to get warmer. Almost all climate scientists are sure that this warming will, allowing for the odd 'blip', carry on for many years; probably centuries. Almost all climate science is published in scientific journals, which have a review-process and a response-process to try to stop 'poor' science from being published. A good test of whether the material you are reading is likely to be good-quality science is to check where it was published. This is no guarantee of it being right, only a sort of quality-assurance, like checking for caterpillars in lettuce before it gets packaged and sold.

You don't have to take my word for this, so check it out if you want to, but almost all of the material which looks like it 'disproves' global warming has never been close to a science journal. This is not, as some people would claim, because there is a conspiracy to silence dissent, but simply because it is so poor in quality that no science journal would print it.

There has been some important work done on 'alternative' theories to Global Warming. Some of this is decent quality science. But nothing has been published, inside or outside science, which actually, properly, disproves AGW. Every time it looks like someone has found an alternative, the ideas are tested and in some way found wanting.

I expect someone to respond to my comments here by telling you that I am wrong, and that this or that is 'proof'. This is because they are convinced themselves that AGW isn't happening. They aren't necessarily fools or liars; they are often very rational people, like my father-in-law, who simply won't be convinced. But, for them, for a variety of reasons, AGW can't be happening, so it must be wrong.

I know what I think about AGW. I know what I would like you to think, but I'm not going to tell you; you have to work it out for yourself. And if the science bit is just too dull for you to cope with, then you have to decide who to trust; who is most reasonable, who seems to rely on fact and evidence rather than insult or flat statements contradicting other people.

Failing all else, browse through the pinned links at the start of the environment change thread, or look up key terms or words on wikipedia. In a month, you'll be an expert. I was :) .

Good luck.

:)P

You may not be wrong, but it's not as clear cut as that. Doctors get it wrong.God knows car mechanics get it wrong.Not all climate scientists agree that the world is in imminent danger from AGW. A lot don't.

Climate scientists are also humans beings, who can lose objectivity when their work is criticised or questioned.They also like to have a roof over their head and food in their belly. Enough said.

I see it quite often in my job.I trained as a scientist and have been making a good living out of it for 22 years since.

Edited by Mr Sleet
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
I'm not really sure that's the point. What the heck is the point of do-goodygooding here to save 0.0000000000000000000001% of global emissions and doing bugger all about the real causes? It's all just stupid middle class posturing if you ask me - utterly pointless to make the Notting Hillybillies feel better about themselves and try and secure some conscience-pricked votes.

The Notting Hillbillies were a very fine group I'll have you know. Feel like going home is one of my fav Mark Knopfler songs :)

Anyway, what the heck is the point of do-goodygooding here to save 0.000000000000000000001% of litter on the streets. Lets all thrown our rubbish down and to hell with the world and all who live on her ......

PS wish I was as wealthy as you. But I'm not. I can't afford to literally burn money :) So I do all I can to reduce my carbon emissions :)

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
a number of eminent scientists who have come out and said that they would have got a better "picture" of things if they had used a lot less science and a lot more observation.

Er, science is observation.

One makes an observation. Devises an hypothesis. Tests the hypothesis against other observations. If not found wanting, the hypothesis becomes a theory - which nonetheless constantly remains subject to further testing as and when new observations come to light.

When it comes to AGM the problem is that the only possible short term testing of the theory is via models. To test against actual observations will take several decades (possibly longer if a solar minimum effects a natural short term cooling).

Question is: do we wait until 2080 by which time the theory will have been fully tested against observations? Or do we assume the theory to be correct, act accordingly, knowing that in the long term it will be of benefit to us even if the theory is proved to be complete bunk? Your call :)

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
You may not be wrong, but it's not as clear cut as that. Doctors get it wrong.God knows car mechanics get it wrong.Not all climate scientists agree that the world is in imminent danger from AGW. A lot don't.

Climate scientists are also humans beings, who can lose objectivity when their work is criticised or questioned.They also like to have a roof over their head and food in their belly. Enough said.

I see it quite often in my job.I trained as a scientist and have been making a good living out of it for 22 years since.

Are anthro cc sceptics human beings? Might they loose objectivity? Need to put food in their bellies? Of course.

So, what you need to show is that these awful scientist who accept AGW are worse offenders than those that don't. It's a tough call imo.

Edited by Devonian
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

It is easy to say trust the experts, but in reality nobody is actually listening properly to them. In real terms nobody is an expert on the totallity of climate where aspects of it cover physics ,meteorology ,chemistry, biology. The more you delve into the detail you more you see caveats or assumptions mostly these do not amount to much but each contribute to make IPCC estimates of climate modelling accuracy questionable. Assumptions like CO2 is a well mixed gas have proved to be somewhat questionable especially when we know that CO2 drops away slightly above the tropopause. It is not a bad assumption but it introduces an error into the climate model.

Reading through the proposals for enhancements to climate models show many areas where modelling could be or will be improved. Taking into account the errors quoted in some of these documents to sustain funding for new developments in the models you might believe the climate models are wildly inaccurate. I my mind much of the physics and chemistry of these models is accurate and it is just human nature to over emphasize.

Where I do believe the climate models are weak is in modelling changes in plankton and plankton take up of CO2, in the granularity of cloud modelling and its affects on transport from troposphere to stratosphere of gases and the effects of changes in precipitation , in the effects of gravity and planetary waves which are at best aproximated due to time granularity and poor modelling of the albedo affects of circulation changes in the sizes of the hadley and walker cells.

For me this is enough to have significant doubt in the claims of the IPCC figures or even whether CO2 is the main culprit in any warming. I do however think the body of evidence suggest AGW (Anthropological/manmade Global Warming) is going on and we should try to curb all forms of pollution.

The problem is that whilst targeting energy usage will have only a moderate effect on our lives tackling the problem of consumerism and waste will drive the world economy into a spiral. The economy runs on buy and throw away and no government could be electable on premise that they will force people to be less lazy and poorer in the short term. Of course any government that has the vision to tackle the problem headon now could well be hailed as the harbinger of prosperity in the future. Somehow I cannot see any politian being that selfless.

When people claim that all climate scientist are behind the IPCC and little is published which goes against there claims I think I would disagree slightly. There are quite a lot of disgruntled climate scientish who think the IPCC figures are inaccurate whether it be too low or to high. Here are a couple of links to support that.

Climate change forcings and feedbacks

Rising Global Temperature, Rising Uncertainty

Feedbacks and the Importance of Short Time Scales

Wikipeadia on the Global Climate Models

The last link there at Wikipedia gives quite a long list of where the short comings of global climate models are under the section Accuracy of models that predict global warming.

And I rather liked the quote below as it is a fairly bold statement to make but they kind of spoil it by mentioning cosmic rays and modelling has moved on somewhat from HADCM3.

According to the IPCC, the majority of climatologists agree that important climate processes are imperfectly accounted for by the climate models but don't think that better models would change the conclusion. Scientists point out that there are specific flaws in the models
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
When?

When have we seen the combination of events that Geraint Vaughan descibes. And not just in Britain. A hurricane in the Arabian Sea. Record hurricane activity in the Pacific. Unusual monsoons. Two cat 5 Atlantic storms in a row. Less ice than ever in the Arctic.

Seems to me Vaughan is right on the button.

It's the only way to study weather and climate. That's why I think it strange that so many contrarians, deniers and skepics use this forum. Maybe their home met stations are dominated by a piece of seaweed.

Try reading the link again eh? It states catagorically that it is BRITAIN he is referring to. Don't have Mr. Data's records or incredible memory but ask him; it's been wetter, dryer, hotter, colder over the summer in this country before and all the same will happen again, with or without AGW.

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PS wish I was as wealthy as you. But I'm not. I can't afford to literally burn money

Hello Essan. I can without any fear of contradiction state categorically that 'I am considerably poorer than yo'. Do feel free to PM OON who has my permission to enlighten you further (I can't PM). It's partly because I have not a dime to my name that I get so fed up with pillocks like Cameron wanting to tax me further when I'm already attempting to do my bit ... whilst he galavants around the globe. Green taxes are crazy to my mind when China is building a new power station every day.

This is a prime example of why I feel like screaming. Here we have a professional, actually not just a professional but the president of the Royal Meteorological Society (someone, who in my view should know better), declaring that not only has this summer been utterly extraordinary - it hasn't, it's happened before - but also announcing that this is only a taste of the troubles that lie ahead due to AGW. Aaaaargh!!!!! Is it any wonder this whole thing goes round in ever decreasing circles when this kind of thing is published.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/sto...2160710,00.html

I agree completely Jethro (and others). Absolutely ridiculous isn't it? As if we've never had wet summer deluges before (summers 1912, 1947 and 1953 for example). He belts on about a rise in temperature, but this summer was below average so I can't see any connection there whatsoever.

Last year leading scientists said that Mediterranean dry hot summers are here to stay in the UK. Academic David Viner, a researcher at the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, produced a report on Sustainable Tourism after analysing the work of experts around the globe:

'The likelihood [is] that Mediterranean summers may be too hot for tourists after 2020, as a result of too much heat and water shortages,' the study said

So that's fine then. Because of Global Warming Water shortages, deluges, snow and ice , wind and rain, baked beans and fried eggs, any nonsense you care to make up will be the norm for UK summers.

And here's an absolute cracker. The press release from DEFRA in September last year. This is the one Tel mentioned :) 'The quintessential English garden and lawn is under threat, warned Climate Change and Environment Minister, Ian Pearson, today'. Welcoming the announcement that, next year, Kew is to open a new Mediterranean garden, Mr Pearson said gardeners should look at the type of plants and trees they grow in their gardens, expanding the number of plants that thrive across Southern Europe. Latest research suggests that the UK will see hotter, drier summers with summer rainfall declining by up to 50 per cent' :):):)

'Gardeners need to think about choosing drought resistant bedding and perennial plants ... that will thrive in Britain’s future climate.' :):)http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/2006/060912a.htm

You couldn't make up all this nonsense if you tried.

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

West: I'm a gardener, I've lost count of the many, many people who want their garden designed with the Med in mind, they also want Bananas, Olive Trees, Palms etc; when I point out that actually they'll be very lucky to get them through many a winter they look at me as though I'm barking mad. They all say the same thing "but we don't get winters like that anymore, they're a thing of the past, global warming, blah, blah, blah". Frost is obsolete in this country, droughts are the norm, in a short while we'll be just like Greece; drives me insane.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
Hello Essan. I can without any fear of contradiction state categorically that you are wealthier than me. Do feel free to PM OON who has my permission to enlighten you further (I can't PM). It's partly because I have not a dime to my name that I get so fed up with pillocks like Cameron wanting to tax me further when I'm already attempting to do my bit ... whilst he galavants around the globe. Green taxes are crazy to my mind when China is building a new power station every day.

OK, then, applying the same logic, you might as well start dropping litter...

agree completely Jethro (and others). Absolutely ridiculous isn't it? As if we've never had wet summer deluges before (summers 1912, 1947 and 1953 for example). He belts on about a rise in temperature, but this summer was below average so I can't see any connection there whatsoever.

Last year leading scientists said that Mediterranean dry hot summers are here to stay in the UK. Academic David Viner, a researcher at the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, produced a report on Sustainable Tourism after analysing the work of experts around the globe:

'The likelihood [is] that Mediterranean summers may be too hot for tourists after 2020, as a result of too much heat and water shortages,' the study said

Yes, likelihood. What does likelihood mean - every year?

So that's fine then. Because of Global Warming Water shortages, deluges, snow and ice , wind and rain, baked beans and fried eggs, any nonsense you care to make up will be the norm for UK summers.

What's the norm for summer is someone banging on like you are. Cynical? Not at all...

And here's an absolute cracker. The press release from DEFRA in September last year. This is the one Tel mentioned :) 'The quintessential English garden and lawn is under threat, warned Climate Change and Environment Minister, Ian Pearson, today'. Welcoming the announcement that, next year, Kew is to open a new Mediterranean garden, Mr Pearson said gardeners should look at the type of plants and trees they grow in their gardens, expanding the number of plants that thrive across Southern Europe. Latest research suggests that the UK will see hotter, drier summers with summer rainfall declining by up to 50 per cent' :):):)

'Gardeners need to think about choosing drought resistant bedding and perennial plants ... that will thrive in Britain’s future climate.' :):)http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/2006/060912a.htm

You couldn't make up all this nonsense if you tried.

Funny you talk about nonsense when you're having a damn good try at appearing not to know the difference between weather and climate.

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I tell you what Jethro - it's things like that which do really make me wish we had a seriously cold month or two this winter. A few blizzards might shut them up, but the trouble is you and I both know that if we had a repeat of 1962-3 this winter they would blame it on Global Warming. Guaranteed.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Funny you talk about nonsense when you're having a damn good try at appearing not to know the difference between weather and climate.

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I'm sure West knows the difference between weather and climate, as do I and most people on here; the point is authorities the world over are coming out and making non-sensical announcements based upon weather, not climate. That's precisely why I and others have an increasing urge to scream.

Exactly

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