Tropical Storm Ingrid

[Iceberg]

Well Navy have now officially named this as 08, NHC will start at approx 15.45pm out time with there first update on track and intensity.

Attached are the latest paths, GFDL doesn't make much of it. SHIPS initiates at 30Kt so this will be what the NHC go with in there first update.

Strength will be really difficult with this one to judge, path pretty easy.

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.1N 44.2W 13.7N 45.7W 14.2N 47.0W 14.6N 47.7W

BAMD 13.1N 44.2W 13.6N 45.6W 14.0N 46.7W 14.4N 47.6W

BAMM 13.1N 44.2W 13.7N 45.5W 14.1N 46.7W 14.6N 47.5W

LBAR 13.1N 44.2W 13.8N 46.0W 14.5N 47.8W 15.2N 49.6W

SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS

DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

070914 1200 070915 1200 070916 1200 070917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.8N 48.6W 15.8N 50.9W 17.0N 53.7W 17.9N 56.6W

BAMD 14.8N 48.4W 16.2N 50.1W 17.6N 51.8W 18.5N 53.2W

BAMM 15.0N 48.3W 16.2N 50.3W 17.4N 52.7W 18.3N 54.9W

LBAR 15.9N 51.5W 17.8N 55.4W 20.0N 59.4W 21.4N 61.6W

SHIP 58KTS 67KTS 68KTS 68KTS

DSHP 58KTS 67KTS 68KTS 68KTS

P.S forgot to add it looks very good

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Absolutely gorgeous!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

[liquidjp]

P.S forgot to add it looks very good

True... shame it's gonna be called Humberto!!! :o

[androcles]

I'll have you know that Humberto is my fine upstanding hairdresser and a jolly good job he does too.

Anyway, thought you might be interestd in the previous Hurricane Humberto here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995humberto.html

Andy

[karyo]

I don't like the projected track as it should stay away from the US. On the other hand, at least Mexico and the Carribean will get a respite after Dean and Felix.

Karyo

[Iceberg]

Still alot of unknowns

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS ACQUIRED

ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE

EIGHTH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED

CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM

ACTIVITY DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB

AND SAB SUPPORT 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE

HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/10. THE

DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE

AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY

OR SO WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE AND MOVE

SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR SO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THUS...CONDITIONS

APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

BEYOND 72 HOURS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD

HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 13.2N 44.6W 30 KT

12HR VT 13/0000Z 13.6N 45.9W 35 KT

24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.0N 47.3W 45 KT

36HR VT 14/0000Z 14.3N 48.4W 50 KT

48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.6N 49.5W 55 KT

72HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 51.4W 60 KT

96HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W 60 KT

120HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 60 KT

[Somerset Squall]

True... shame it's gonna be called Humberto!!! :o

Ah, but there is a slim chance that it may be called Ingrid if TD9 reaches tropical storm strength first!

[Iceberg]

The strength seems to be determined by the nature of the developing storm.

Some storms seem to be able to cope with Shear, some completely collapse.

There seems to be a very well defined LLCC with a good CDO, which probably hints that this might be one of the former categories and the NHC intensities are a bit conservative.

[kold weather]

FWIW this will probably be Ingrid rather then Humberto, TD9 will probably get there first as its so close to Texas and has deeper convection...

Anyway yeah TD8 does look good right now with fairly deep convection over the center however there are still signs to me shear hasn't compeltely eased off and even more noteable signs that the air is still fairly dry to its north with WV showing quite a bit of dry air about. These two features may help to expain why the convection has eased just a tiny bit and has also been sheared off a little to the SW of the systems center. It should be noted that ther eis also currently what looks like the start of an inflow up from the south is trying to get going though it may just be an area of convection that is present in the ITCZ, hard to say without taking a better look at it.

As for future strength, models generally suggest shear shouldn't be all that bad once it gets rid of this lot it presently has however that may not be a quick process. Despite that the system should slowly get better organised and once it gets past 50W should start to lose the shear and also. Dry air issue will need to be watched but more and more I think the heat content will help to pump. i don't think it will be a very fast former as its not really got a stunning set-up but develop it will and quite possibly into a strong hurricane.

In terms of the track, next few days should be dominated by a WNW type motion, maybe not quite as much NW as the NHC suggests though as the models have had a pretty noteable right bias this year so far. Weakness in the Atlantic caused by a central Atlantic upper low (which is decaying) is allowing the system to move into a weakness and this is progged to grow tomorrow and to remain in place for the enxt 3-4 days. After that we see the wekaness really weaken and by that time the ridge will replace it and a motion back to 275-280 degrees looks much more likely. now where does that take this system. The NHC track would probably bend back westward eventually and aim towards the Bahamas in the long run. IMO this system will track a little further south and therefore could well be a threat to the Leeward Islands and the E.Major Antilles and after that assuming the ridge does develop back a more westward motion should occur...which will probably mean either a N.Caribbean threat or a SE USA threat...depending on the latitude it picks up in the next 3-4 days. Movement right now is very slow as it moves through very weak steerning currents caused by the weak weakness iin the ridge allowing slack motion to occur.

This one wil lbe very interesting to watch and could be another powerful system, quite possibly even more eventual then Dean and Felix.

[Iceberg]

This still looks quite decent. I think there is inflow(v.limited in the SW), generally good outflow. To the SW of the LLCC where the precip has been best winds of 40KT are being recorded.

There is scope for this to be raised to a TS at 10pm.

Shear is still taking a toll, but the system seems to be holding it's own.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well, kinda thought this looked a bit tasty. Long ways to go yet but I still think we may see a '3 cat5 landfall' season (if not more!).

[liquidjp]

Well, kinda thought this looked a bit tasty. Long ways to go yet but I still think we may see a '3 cat5 landfall' season (if not more!).

Ingrid it is.. well not yet but am i thinking it is a matter of time...

Does this system have something of the Dean/Felix about it?

[Gray-Wolf]

Ingrid it is.. well not yet but am i thinking it is a matter of time...

Does this system have something of the Dean/Felix about it?

Depending on the environment in front of it it may well attempt to 'outdo' them both!. After waking up to Humberto it would seem that some areas of the Carribean/G.O.M. are very capable of 'bombing' systems and I wonder just what central pressure the next 'cane will produce?

[Iceberg]

Certainly a very sheared system, but I don't think shearing is really a reason not to upgrade a storm.

This is certainly a 35Kt with quite a few 40Kt+ being reported now. Around a tight core, the core inself is covered by precip even though the North and East Quads are very sparse.

[crimsone]

Now TS Ingrid.

000

WTNT43 KNHC 140229

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007

1100 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS BEEN ON A RESEARCH MISSION THIS

EVENING AND FOUND 35 KT WINDS USING THE ON-BOARD STEPPED-FREQUENCY

MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR). THESE WINDS MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL TO A

RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SUGGESTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT AND

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT...MAKING THIS SYSTEM THE NINTH NAMED

STORM OF THE YEAR.

MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID.

MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE SHEAR ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE

NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN

STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTENSIFY...LIKELY

CAUSING A WEAKENING OF INGRID. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE

SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BE A

LITTLE TOO HIGH IN THE LONGER RANGE AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING

NEARLY 30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE STORM'S PATH.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT TONIGHT...

ESTIMATED AT 300/5. THE TRACK FORECAST IS TRICKY AS IT PROBABLY

HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF INGRID. WATER

VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING

SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW HAS CAUSED A

VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING

REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A STRONGER

TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE RESPONSIVE TO THE

LOW...AND MOVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT

IS ASSUMED THAT INGRID WILL REMAIN WEAK AND STAY ON THE SOUTHERN

SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR NOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 14.7N 48.7W 35 KT

12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.1N 49.4W 40 KT

24HR VT 15/0000Z 15.6N 50.4W 40 KT

36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.2N 51.6W 35 KT

48HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 52.9W 35 KT

72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.8N 56.0W 35 KT

96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.0N 58.5W 30 KT

120HR VT 19/0000Z 20.5N 60.5W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[Iceberg]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 14/1136Z

B. 15 DEG 4 MIN N

49 DEG 42 MIN W

C. 850 MB 1475 M

D. 51 KT

E. 215 DEG 45 NM

F. 308 DEG 32 KT

G. 222 DEG 55 NM

H. 1004 MB

I. 21 C/1539 M

J. 22 C/1540 M

K. 18 C/NA

L. POORLY DEFINED

M. NA

N. 12345/8

O. 1/1 NM

P. NOAA2 0208A INGRID OB 14 AL082007

MAX FL WIND 40 KT NW QUAD 1028Z

MAX SFMR WIND 51 KT SW QUAD 1118Z

SLP FROM DROPSONDE

Some interesting figures there, particularly the 50Kt surface estimate from just now. A stronger Storm than they think

[Somerset Squall]

Ingrid is barely hanging on to tropical storm status. Shear is really taking it's toll on Ingrid and it could disspate at anytime. Interestingly, shear is expected to relax in 48 hours, and if Ingrid lasts this long re-intensification could occur. An interesting possibility.

TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007

500 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF INGRID

EARLY THIS MORNING. BELLIGERENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A

TOLL ON INGRID AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE

SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO WILL THE

INITIAL INTENSITY. ANOTHER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE

BACK INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AROUND 12Z...AND A MORE ACCURATE

MEASUREMENT WILL BE TAKEN.

INGRID IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AT

LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD

INHIBIT ANY STRENGTHENING AND COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE DISSIPATION OF

THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...AFTER 3 DAYS OR SO THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO

RELAX AND IF INGRID SURVIVES THAT LONG SOME OF THE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND

MAINTAINS INGRID AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. A GENERAL MOTION TO THE

WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48

HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A

SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS INGRID...OR THE

REMNANT LOW OF INGRID...RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS

NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...BUT HAS SHIFTED A

BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS JUST EAST OF THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 16.5N 52.7W 35 KT

12HR VT 15/1800Z 17.2N 54.0W 30 KT

24HR VT 16/0600Z 18.3N 55.6W 30 KT

36HR VT 16/1800Z 19.1N 56.9W 30 KT

48HR VT 17/0600Z 19.9N 58.2W 30 KT

72HR VT 18/0600Z 21.5N 59.5W 30 KT

96HR VT 19/0600Z 23.5N 60.5W 30 KT

120HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[tinybill]

looking at Ingrid this morning its not going to be much trouble with the track its on at the moment might have our UK name on it in a week or 2 time that by my eye of the storm program this morning

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

Edited September 16, 2007 by tinybill

[Somerset Squall]

Ingrid certainly is a fighter, it reminds me of Irene in 2005 for it's tenacity. Shear is still over 20kts but Ingrid is looking better than it did this morning and the center is no longer exposed. It may even survive the next 48 hours of shear and restrengthen back to a tropical storm afterwards as the NHC discusses.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007

1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

INGRID IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL

FLOW. IN FACT...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS DISORGANIZED

THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE CENTER NO LONGER EXPOSED FROM

THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30

KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. ACCORDING TO THE

LATEST GFS RUN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT

FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT

RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF

SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT INGRID WILL

EVENTUALLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL

ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS HOSTILE LATE IN THE FORECAST

PERIOD. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT

INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT

NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING.

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL

MOTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/10. HOWEVER...THE

MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF INGRID IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THIS

SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS

INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. IN 4-5

DAYS A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED

TO TURN INGRID NORTHWARD. HOWEVER THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT

VERY WELL DEFINED SO A SLOW MOTION OF ONLY 4-5 KT IS INDICATED BY

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS IN

AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

SINCE INGRID HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD THAN EXPECTED...AND

THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE...INTERESTS

IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.2N 57.9W 30 KT

12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.7N 59.1W 30 KT

24HR VT 17/1200Z 18.4N 60.3W 30 KT

36HR VT 18/0000Z 19.2N 61.3W 30 KT

48HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 62.2W 30 KT

72HR VT 19/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W 30 KT

96HR VT 20/1200Z 23.0N 64.5W 30 KT

120HR VT 21/1200Z 24.5N 64.5W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[kold weather]

Sadly I've not got time to make a decent psot about Ingrid however it is a fighter of a system from the looks of the system, deep convection has restablished itself over Ingrid and while its been heavily sheared it still has strong convection, though in recent hours the LLC has become a little elongated and harder to find.

[Gray-Wolf]

There seems be be a little 'extension' to the south of the dissapating Ingrid that is developing and is not as 'sheared' as poor Ingrid......I wonder......