Hurricane Humberto

[Paranoid]

We also have TD-9 shortly after TD-8 formed.

000

WTNT34 KNHC 121445

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007

1000 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED

FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN

THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF

CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 85

MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 135

MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE

CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR

TO MAKING LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE DEPRESSION WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND

UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...95.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400

PM CDT.

$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Looks like even if it does reach TS strength, it will only be very weak and short lived as it's so close to the TX coast at the moment.

Edited September 12, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Yep A short lived affair, but possible troublesome to Texas re precip as KW mentioned.

[kold weather]

Wow, talk about quickfire action!

It currently looks very good with a pretty strong area of convection and a now fairly obvious center of convection. Base don the few Sat.images I've seen today this looks very close to being tropical storm force and I'd say it probably 30-35kts right now and heading upwards with some really deep convection around the center and possibly an early CDO present. It would not surprise me at all if this system is upgraded tonight based on its current looks, shear should be low and heat content is pretty high with only Erin coming close this season. i wouldn't be at all surprised to see this get to 45-50mph.

Track is a little uncertain but mainly thats to do with the timings of this system as it currently seems to be pretty much stationary, while the NHC state its moving at 6mph I think its not moving quite as fast as that based on the last few hours of looping Sat.imagery.

Like Erin the main threat won't be the winds but instead will likely the heavy rain into a state that has already seen so much this summer thanks to just general convection as well as Erin.

[Iceberg]

It's funny when you consider that currently a 10 year old on an old BMX could out run it. 6 mph is very slow. This might slow down the intensification.

[kold weather]

As i somewhat expected, TD9 has been upgraded to tropical storm status before TD8...Td9 now is tropical storm Humberto and as I suspected it has estimated max winds of 45mph:

000

WTNT34 KNHC 121736

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007

100 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS

TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO

INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70

MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 145

MILES...235 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO SHOULD BE

CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RETURNED TO BASE FOR MECHANICAL

REASONS...BUT A SECOND AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HUMBERTO

WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND

UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES

LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Note by the way that recon is heading into the system right now, should be seeing how strong the system really is within the hour I suspect.

[kold weather]

Quick update---TS Humberto seems to be rapidly developing right now under very good atmopsheric condtions, radar showing the center very well with convection now wrapping around the N.Quadrants with the system getting the classic look of a strong tropical storm. Recon has found estimated surface winds of 50-60kts tohugh flight level winds don't even come close to backing that up. Pressure down to 1001mbs with a steep pressure gradient suggesting a small system which could well ramp up pretty quickly, indeed that appears to be occuring right now.

Given how quickly its ramped up i think some people aren't going to be prepared for a 50mph+ tropical storm with lots of rain and as i said before, even though the winds are seemingly increasing I still think the flooding could be the main story, Houston had some pretty bad flooding from Erin and this will probably give even more given it's that bit more intense.

[Iceberg]

He's certainly intensifying but I am not sure it's that much, interaction with land seems to be letting in a dry slot on the west side. Max flight winds seem to be below 40Kt, I don't think there is anyway that this could contain 50-60Kt surface winds.

Firmly agree that rain will be the main issue with him.

[kold weather]

Yeah there is some dry air present with the system but its looking better and better right now and so I think the NHC will probably raise the winds to 50kts just based on that and assume the highest winds weren't found, they've done that sort of thing before when a system is close to land.

FWIW the radar images are showing an early eye forming at mid-levels of the atmosphere, wouldn't surprise me because while it is ingesting drier air its clearly got a good structure and a tight inner core with a steep pressure gradient...and importantly its going to have another 9-15hrs over water IMO, a fair chance that as long as the dry air doesn't disrupt the developing inner core too much that this will be a high end tropical storm by landfall.

[Iceberg]

Latest recon. min pressure 1000

Max flight winds 45Kt equaling 40Kt at surface. If I was a betting man I would go for an increase to 40Kt in the advisory.

201300 2827N 09458W 8434 01506 0048 +144 +000 292016 019 036 013 03

201330 2828N 09457W 8426 01512 0029 +166 +000 320013 014 029 006 03

201400 2830N 09456W 8436 01497 0011 +181 +000 348010 013 029 003 03

201430 2831N 09455W 8427 01501 0001 +186 +000 126005 008 015 001 03

201500 2831N 09453W 8427 01497 0000 +187 +000 169017 021 011 000 03

201530 2831N 09451W 8426 01505 0009 +184 +000 165029 036 039 001 03

201600 2833N 09450W 8428 01513 0024 +178 +000 156039 041 040 001 03

201630 2834N 09449W 8426 01527 0051 +155 +000 149039 040 037 002 00

201700 2836N 09448W 8432 01524 0056 +160 +000 144038 038 032 003 00

201730 2837N 09447W 8425 01540 0062 +160 +000 141041 045 034 003 00

201800 2839N 09446W 8434 01534 0063 +166 +000 149042 044 037 002 00

[Iceberg]

Bang inbetween at 45Kt rising to 55Kt before landfall

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 94.9W AT 12/2100Z

AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 95.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.4N 94.7W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.

34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

[summer blizzard]

HUMBERTO IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY...

CURRENT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60MPH, UP 10MPH FROM 2 HOURS AGO, GUSTS TO 70MPH...

15 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED...

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 60% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

[Iceberg]

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE HUMBERTO TO A

HURRICANE. BOTH THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAVE

BEEN INCREASED...AND A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE

UPGRADE IS BASED ON DATA RECEIVED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT AND NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...WHICH

WOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0515Z 29.4N 94.4W 70 KT

This is the reason why.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007

A. 13/05:24:20Z

B. 29 deg 20 min N

094 deg 29 min W

C. 850 mb 1351 m

D. 48 kt

E. 212 deg 8 nm

F. 298 deg 055 kt

G. 209 deg 007 nm

H. 990 mb

I. 17 C/ 1528 m

J. 22 C/ 1515 m

K. 0 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C6

N. 12345/8

O. 0.02 / NA nm

P. AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 09

MAX FL WIND 79 KT E QUAD 04:44:40 Z

MAX OUTBOUND WIND 76KTS NE QUAD 05:27:00Z

MET ACCURACY 2NM

EYEWALL RAGGED

DEW POINT INOP

Hurricane Humberto is now coming offshore as we speak, quite a bit further north and west than forecast(he was over the sea longer so had more time to grow.).

Edited September 13, 2007 by Iceberg

[kold weather]

Wow....this hurricane is nearly eveery bit as impressive as Felix when it rapidly developed, truely amazing devlopment!

I have to admit I'm quite frankly a little shocked to wake up to hurricane Humberto but it was showing al lthe classic signs IMO with some amazing curvature for a weak TS shown last night and what looked like a mid-level eye formed around 8-10pm our time at the mid-levels, hence why I called for a strong TS but a hurricane, thats above what i expected I have to say.

Given its rapid strengthening Humberto could well be even stronger then current forecasts prog and it may have a breif shot at Category-2 as lastest dropsondes suggests its at 80kts right now though landfall probably isn't that far away now. Still a 70kts hurricane is something i would not have called for yesterday afternoon!

Edited September 13, 2007 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Recon just found flight level winds of 98kts, this supports category-2 strength:

065500 2932N 09411W 8415 01444 9990 +219 +999 197093 098 074 000 05

Expect a upgrade shortly I suspect given that reading.

[Gray-Wolf]

Now someone out there needs to tell me whether I'm decieving myself by thinking that storms aren't generally that quick in forming. I went to bed last night with Humberto a slack low (with thunderstorms) and wake up to a Cat2 trolling down towards the oil areas.

I certainly haven't seen such 'instant' fortmation! I wonder if it caught a few folk napping Stateside (None of the 'updates' for Hurricane status are posted yet over on N.H.C.)

[Iceberg]

I believe there was only a 15% chance of this reaching a CAT 1 and a much smaller chance of reaching anything higher.

[Cookie]

Hurricane HUMBERTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% currently

probability for TS is 90% currently

[rc28]

Humberto was the fastest developing storm in recorded history, amazing! This taken from TWO WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY FROM THE LATEST DISCUSSION;

"BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT

DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS

MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS

DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL

RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR

LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED"

[kold weather]

Well thats really not surprising, i think it caught everyone out including the NHC at that and such rapid development can be down to the high heat content, an extremely supportive upper atmosphere and a very tight inner core, as I noted last night recon found a very steep pressure gradient in such condtions these systems can ramp up very fast as we saw with Felix as well.

By the way this is still a 65mph tropical storm and will no doubt be giving a lot of rainfall to the general areas that have already had quite alot. Also its worth noting that some of the global models as well as the tropical models bend this system back southwards in about 36hrs (by which time it'd be a weak TD i guess) and head back into the gulf of Mexico. No real certainties here however but its an interesting possiblity. it all depends on how well a trough can dig down over the next 24hrs and whether its strong enough to allow humberto to follow it up to the ENE. After that a ridge builds back in again. If Humberto is still hanging about the developing high pressure may be strong enough to force it back south intothe gulf where there is a chance it could start to re-develop. Equally possibly is the high does build back but isn't strong enough to send it into the gulf again and so the weakening low dumps all its rain over one place and dies inland, possibly causing some bd flooding at the same time as it dumps all its rain.

[rc28]

Also its worth noting that some of the global models as well as the tropical models bend this system back southwards in about 36hrs (by which time it'd be a weak TD i guess) and head back into the gulf of Mexico. No real certainties here however but its an interesting possiblity.

Yes Accuweather mention that;

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headli...&traveler=0

[Somerset Squall]

Like everyone else, I was very surprised to find Humberto was a hurricane today. Certainly some explosive development which almost defies belief! As the NHC said, it is a record for such a storm near land to strengthen that quickly. I for one certainly wasn't expecting it!

Certainly an interesting scenario for Humberto ahead with the possibility of it re-emerging over the Gulf of Mexico. How likely is this?

[Cookie]

has this be downgradge to a tropical storm, my latest email alert came through as a tropical storm?

[Somerset Squall]

has this be downgradge to a tropical storm, my latest email alert came through as a tropical storm?

It's now a dissapating tropical depression Cookie- unless it can move back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico this is the last we will be hearing from Humberto.