TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm NARI

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm NARI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

South Korea

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, we now have Tropical Storm Nari. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a Typhoon by morning as Nari is looking very healthy and is intensifying steadily, now at 55kts.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...inds/winds.html

You can see what possibly might be the beginings of an eye like feature starting to show which is another positive sign towards Nari not being far away from typhoon status.

As your update shows Cookie, it looks like South Korea and Japan are in the firing line for Nari in the next few days. But how intense will it be? Well conditions are certainly favourable for continued strengthening; sea temps are high, outflow is very good and shear is light. However, beyond 36 hours shear may well increase and this could balance out the fact that Nari has very good outflow and may result in slower intenisification or no more intensification at all. Beyond 72 hours and shear will really step up and induce weakening but by this stage Nari should begin turning extratropical.

So overall, it has about another 36 hours of ideal conditions for strengthening before shear kicks in. It's worth bearing in mind though if the shear isn't as strong ahead then there isn't much stopping this storm becoming a pretty strong typhoon. As it stands Nari is forecasted to peak around 90kts.

[Cookie]

A quick question for you mate, how did we jump from F to nari so quickly?

Tropical Storm NARI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

South Korea

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

[Somerset Squall]

A quick question for you mate, how did we jump from F to nari so quickly?

Ah, the West Pacific names have no alphabetical order- North Indian Ocean doesn't either. All other cyclone areas do name storms alphabetically I think. It explains why we had Sepat, Fitow, Danas, now Nari, there isn't any alphabetical ordering.

Nari is now a typhoon!

Edited September 14, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

ahh thanks for explaing

Typhoon NARI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

South Korea

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Typhoon Nari has rapidly strengthened overnight and is now a 95kt, high-end cat 2 typhoon. It still has a good 24 hours to continue this rapid intensification, and it is forecasted to become a cat 4 later today, maybe even a super typhoon. After 24 hours, strengthening should halt or slow due to increased shear.

[Cookie]

Typhoon NARI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

South Korea

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

As expected, Nari has continued to rapidly intensify and is now a cat 4 typhoon, not far off Super Typhoon strength. It still has the oppurtunity to strengthen into a super typhoon over the next 12-24 hours before conditions become less conducive for further strengthening. You can see on the image I posted earlier that it certainly looks very healthy and it is quite small which has aided the rapid intensification it has under gone.

[biffvernon]

How many Pacific typhoons have there been this year? Is it normal?

[Somerset Squall]

How many Pacific typhoons have there been this year? Is it normal?

8 typhoons and 4 tropical storms so far. The average is 31 cyclones- 10 tropical storms, and 17 typhoons. There is still 2-3 months to go before activity hits minimum (only minimum as Typhoons can form anytime in the West Pacific), and forecasts I have found indicate a slightly below average to near normal season.

And just as I have finished writing, I notice that tropical depression 13W has formed, which is likely to become a tropical storm.

[Ryan M]

when is this expected to make landfall and is there any live feeds which will be available?

Edited September 15, 2007 by Ryan M

[Cookie]

Typhoon NARI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

South Korea

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

[Cookie]

Typhoon NARI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

South Korea

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Ch'ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

[tinybill]

if this is any help its the track its on looks like south korea going to get hit

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

[Somerset Squall]

Nari has now made landfall in South Korea. It's still a category 1 typhoon. Nari is expected to move northeast into the Sea Of Japan where it will become extratropical.

[Ryan M]

any live feed online?

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm NARI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

South Korea

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours