Typhoon WIPHA

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Tropical Depression 13W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 13W has now strengthened to a 45kt tropical storm, named Wipha. An upper level trough is currently surpressing it's convection and Wipha is only strengthening slowly, but the trough should move away soon. Wipha has excellent outflow on it's side and it should become a typhoon in the next 24 hours. From then on, Wipha is forecasted to continue heading northwards and as the upper level trough retreats northwards, rapid strengthening is expected. It's not out of the question for Wipha to become a super typhoon in later days as it heads north of Taiwan towards northeastern mainland China- where it could make landfall although this is by no means certain yet. Other soloutions take Wipha away from China however, as it may get caught in mid-level westerlies, if this were to occur, Wipha will be extratropical after 72 hours over the Korean Peninsula.

This image shows Wipha with the decaying Nari to the north over Korea.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

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Tropical Storm 13W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Wipha is now a 65kt Typhoon. Continued strengthening is forecast as it moves towards mainland China. Intensification could be rapid.

[Cookie]

Typhoon WIPHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Wipha has continued rapidly strengthening and is now a cat 4 120kt typhoon. Wipha is expected to strengthen further before scraping Northeast China then turning extratropical as it heads northeastwards towards Korea.

It's quite amazing that Wipha has gone from a tropical depression saturday night to being 5kts off a Super Typhoon today! That IS rapid!

[Cookie]

Typhoon WIPHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

South Korea

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

North Korea

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Wipha is now a super typhoon with sustained winds of 130kts, just shy of category 5 strength. It's track has taken a westward motion which really puts Taiwan in greater danger- the typhoon's eye will scrape very close to the coast and pack a real punch with the winds and of course the rain. It's then forecast to make landfall in China, probably still at cat 4 strength, which will weaken Wipha considerably before it turns extratropical and heads to Korea, which will cause yet more problems especially as Nari just made landfall there. A very dangerous storm for anyone in it's path obviously and hopefully people are well prepared to try and deal with this storm.

[biffvernon]

Seems to be cat 5 now, with China landfall just south of Shanghai from where a lot of people are being evacuated.

[Blackie]

I spoke to a friend of mine in Shanghai on Windows Messenger ealier today. She said that the rain was so heavy that there had been a lot of flooding in the city and most businesses were closed and few people were at work. She is in a hotel with lots of guests, so staff there don't have the same luxury.

With Wipha yet to make its impact fully felt, I think the effects could be quite extreme for Shanghai and the surrounding areas by the time it is finished. Some of the lovely water towns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces could be very badly hit.

[Cookie]

Typhoon WIPHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours

Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours

[Somerset Squall]

One confirmed death so far but damage and flooding has been extensive and severe.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7000106.stm

Wipha is now a tropical storm and it seems unlikely it will make it back over water to restrengthen.

[saint]

theres been alot of them lately

saint

[Cookie]

Typhoon WIPHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 85% currently

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently