Hurricane Season - Predictors

[Cat 5]

Afternoon all,

I work within the insurance industry and spend a lot of time analysing data, reporting loss figures and generally keep an eye on developments out in the gulf.

I know that literally millions of pounds are spent every year in Catastrophe modelling systems in an attempt predict the likley activity for the season. What a load of #*%$ that is. Every year, you will get the full spectrum of highly active to very inactive and all inbetween. Of course one company will get the result correct and they will then win a few contracts for the following season.

A typical example could be as follows

1/04/07 - Company A predict a higher than average liklihood for an active season

01/06/07 - 70% liklihood of an above average active season

01/08/07 - No Cat 5's - 50% Chance of active season

01/10/07 - Lets say 4 hurricans make landfall - Below average active season

Grrrrr - The funniest thing is the excuses, aherm sorry I mean reasons, always goes back to the El Nino's and the sand in the sahara...

I know we have to spend money in this field but I wish we could be more honest. We can not confidently predict this and we can not avoid them occuring. All we can do is prepare ourselves for them as they will hit New Orleans, Housten, Mobile, Miami, cancum etc it's just a question of when!

Cat5

[Paul]

Welcome to the forum Cat5, I think you make a fair point or two there!

[Cat 5]

Thanks paul - I cant believe I have not come across this site before.

I've had a quick look through the different areas and I like what I see. Especially the Extreme weather section

See ya around !

Cat5

[mezzacyclone]

I'm well miffed with NOAA's pre-'cane season prediction, looks to be another "BBC-type" overforecast to me thus far?

[Somerset Squall]

The thing is, no one actually knows what is going to happen before a season. It's little more than educated guesswork IMO.