Tropical Storm Jerry

[Somerset Squall]

The non-tropical low out in the open northern atlantic has gained enough organisation to be classed a subtropical depression. The system could become tropical before it gets absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone in a couple days. Despite ony being over waters of 24C, the NHC call for it to become a 40kt tropical storm before it gets absorbed. 24C may sound a little low, but we've only got to remember back to Epsilon, Vince, Delta, and Zita of 2005, which all did very well over similar sea temps or even a couple degrees lower. Anyway, this system isn't going to affect land but it's certainly an interesting system.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007

500 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER

THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN

PRODUCING SOME PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS

OR SO. THAT CONVECTION HAD INITIALLY BEEN LIMITED TO THE WESTERN

SEMICIRCLE...BUT HAS BEEN STEADILY WRAPPING AROUND THE

SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS

ALSO INCREASED TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHERE SOME

LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING SIGNATURES HAVE EVEN BEEN DETECTED. TAFB

PROVIDED A TROPICAL DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0...WHILE THE SAB

CLASSIFICATION WAS SUBTROPICAL 2.5. THE CYCLONE FELL IN THE GAP

BETWEEN QUIKSCAT PASSES ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...AND DATA FROM A NEW

OVERPASS HAS NOT YET ARRIVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30

KT. THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED SUBTROPICAL FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT IT

IS STILL WELL-INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND SINCE THE

CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT DISTANT FROM THE CENTER. THE RECENT

TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS

GRADUALLY GAINING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND SHOULD BECOME A

TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS...TRAPPED WITHIN A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW.

ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL CHANGE

SOON...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD

OVER ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT LARGER SYSTEM

WILL PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT WITHIN

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES ON MODEL

GUIDANCE THAT IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND

CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE ABSORBED IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE

STRENGTHENING OVER SSTS NEAR 24 CELSIUS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH 40 KT BEFORE TRAVERSING COOLER

WATERS AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 36.2N 46.1W 30 KT

12HR VT 23/1800Z 36.7N 46.1W 35 KT...TROPICAL

24HR VT 24/0600Z 38.7N 45.3W 40 KT...TROPICAL

36HR VT 24/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[mettalfabrik]

latest on eleven

FZNT01 KWBC 231015

HSFAT1

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

1030 UTC SEP 23 2007

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SEP 23.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 24.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 25.

WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

.SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN 36.2N 46.1W 1008 MB AT 0900 UTC

NEARLY STATIONARY...THEN MOVING NE 12 KT AFTER 24 HOURS. MAX

WIND 30 KT GUST 40 KT. WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WINDS TO 30 KT

SEAS TO 11 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM 38.7N 45.3W. MAXIMUM WINDS 40

KT GUST 50 KT. WITHIN 75 NM E SEMICIRCLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR HIGHER WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 14 FT.

ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 33

KT SEAS TO 11 FT.

.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM 42.5N 42.5W BECOMING

EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KT GUST 50 KT. WITHIN 90 NM E

SEMICIRCLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR HIGHER

WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 15 FT.

[Somerset Squall]

Subtropical depression Eleven has been upgdraded to Subtropical Storm Jerry. Winds justified the upgrade but the storm is still sub tropical as convection is not anywhere near the center.

[Iceberg]

Not sure I totally agree but Jerry is now a proper TS, barely with 35Kt

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY NOW RESEMBLES THAT OF A SHEARED

TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AND

CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 2204 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS

INDICATES THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS DECREASED DURING THE

PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 45 NM. BASED ON THE SMALLER RADIUS

OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE WEAK WARM CORE SEEN IN AMSU DATA...JERRY

IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY

REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

[tinybill]

just been looking at my tropical storm program at the moment its looks like jerry is heading our way

[mettalfabrik]

in this advisory jerry will be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone,anybody know which one this is

WTNT21 KNHC 242037

TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007

2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 42.7W AT 24/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 42.7W AT 24/2100Z

AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.5N 38.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.8N 42.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z