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Tropical Storm Jerry


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The non-tropical low out in the open northern atlantic has gained enough organisation to be classed a subtropical depression. The system could become tropical before it gets absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone in a couple days. Despite ony being over waters of 24C, the NHC call for it to become a 40kt tropical storm before it gets absorbed. 24C may sound a little low, but we've only got to remember back to Epsilon, Vince, Delta, and Zita of 2005, which all did very well over similar sea temps or even a couple degrees lower. Anyway, this system isn't going to affect land but it's certainly an interesting system.

    SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007

    500 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

    THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER

    THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN

    PRODUCING SOME PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS

    OR SO. THAT CONVECTION HAD INITIALLY BEEN LIMITED TO THE WESTERN

    SEMICIRCLE...BUT HAS BEEN STEADILY WRAPPING AROUND THE

    SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS

    ALSO INCREASED TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHERE SOME

    LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING SIGNATURES HAVE EVEN BEEN DETECTED. TAFB

    PROVIDED A TROPICAL DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0...WHILE THE SAB

    CLASSIFICATION WAS SUBTROPICAL 2.5. THE CYCLONE FELL IN THE GAP

    BETWEEN QUIKSCAT PASSES ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...AND DATA FROM A NEW

    OVERPASS HAS NOT YET ARRIVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30

    KT. THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED SUBTROPICAL FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT IT

    IS STILL WELL-INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND SINCE THE

    CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT DISTANT FROM THE CENTER. THE RECENT

    TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS

    GRADUALLY GAINING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND SHOULD BECOME A

    TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

    THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL

    HOURS...TRAPPED WITHIN A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW.

    ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL CHANGE

    SOON...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD

    OVER ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT LARGER SYSTEM

    WILL PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT WITHIN

    THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES ON MODEL

    GUIDANCE THAT IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND

    CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE ABSORBED IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. DURING

    THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE

    STRENGTHENING OVER SSTS NEAR 24 CELSIUS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

    CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH 40 KT BEFORE TRAVERSING COOLER

    WATERS AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 23/0900Z 36.2N 46.1W 30 KT

    12HR VT 23/1800Z 36.7N 46.1W 35 KT...TROPICAL

    24HR VT 24/0600Z 38.7N 45.3W 40 KT...TROPICAL

    36HR VT 24/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

    48HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

    $$

    FORECASTER KNABB

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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    latest on eleven

    FZNT01 KWBC 231015

    HSFAT1

    CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE

    HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV

    NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

    1030 UTC SEP 23 2007

    SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

    SECURITE

    NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W.

    SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SEP 23.

    24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 24.

    48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 25.

    WARNINGS.

    ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

    .SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN 36.2N 46.1W 1008 MB AT 0900 UTC

    NEARLY STATIONARY...THEN MOVING NE 12 KT AFTER 24 HOURS. MAX

    WIND 30 KT GUST 40 KT. WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WINDS TO 30 KT

    SEAS TO 11 FT.

    .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM 38.7N 45.3W. MAXIMUM WINDS 40

    KT GUST 50 KT. WITHIN 75 NM E SEMICIRCLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE

    WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR HIGHER WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 14 FT.

    ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 33

    KT SEAS TO 11 FT.

    .36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM 42.5N 42.5W BECOMING

    EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KT GUST 50 KT. WITHIN 90 NM E

    SEMICIRCLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR HIGHER

    WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 15 FT.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Subtropical depression Eleven has been upgdraded to Subtropical Storm Jerry. Winds justified the upgrade but the storm is still sub tropical as convection is not anywhere near the center.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Not sure I totally agree but Jerry is now a proper TS, barely with 35Kt

    THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY NOW RESEMBLES THAT OF A SHEARED

    TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AND

    CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 2204 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS

    INDICATES THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS DECREASED DURING THE

    PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 45 NM. BASED ON THE SMALLER RADIUS

    OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE WEAK WARM CORE SEEN IN AMSU DATA...JERRY

    IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY

    REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    just been looking at my tropical storm program at the moment its looks like jerry is heading our way

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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    in this advisory jerry will be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone,anybody know which one this is

    WTNT21 KNHC 242037

    TCMAT1

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007

    2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 42.7W AT 24/2100Z

    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 42.7W AT 24/2100Z

    AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 43.5W

    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.5N 38.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.8N 42.7W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

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