October 2007 CET

[The PIT]

Pity I upped my prediction to 11.5C wasn't it. Damn. I'll be honest about it though.

[West is Best]

Richard thanks for posting the graphs. Presumably if the clear trend of the last four months away from 'cooler' CET averages continues into November we could expect to see a CET for November slightly higher than the rolling 10 year average?

kind regards

Andrew

Andrew, lol. Or we could have the opposite of April?

It may indeed be a temporary blip. But at least it has run on long enough now for it not to be ignored.

you might note it's not something I do as a rule - there could be a reason!

So, are those inaccurate monthly projection charts not pics then?

[J10]

October Results are in and it was a very close month, with nine entrants getting the correct CET figure. So well done to

slipknotsam

Steve Murr

Slinky

weathermaster

jemtom

vizzy2004

acbrixton

JACKONE

SNOW-MAN2006

In total 57 entrants got within 0.5c of the actual total, so well done to these entrants.

So, in terms of the overall picture, Beng now takes over the lead from 2nd, acBrixton has risen to 2nd from 13th, and phil n.warks. is 3rd from 5th. Bottesford has fallen from 1st to 8th.

But a spot on result next month could mean that many entrants could still win overall.

Excel Format

PDF Format

[Stratos Ferric]

So, are those inaccurate monthly projection charts not pics then?

They're pinned files that show as thumbnails; though I mainly do that so that anyone who wants to can download. Might be my imagination but I suspect the paste in thread options uses a different file structure, which uses less memory and degrades image quality. In fact, I'm led to believe that the degradation can be so bad that warming starts to look like cooling on plots.

Re your point re the cooling going on for a long time. I haven't got the numbers on this machine but I'm pretty sure the current run is shorter, and less significant, than the cold that ran from 2005-2006. We've had a couple of below long-term months, nothing unusual in the context of what's gone on over the past decade or so.

[The Enforcer]

Presumably if the clear trend of the last four months away from 'cooler' CET averages continues into November we could expect to see a CET for November slightly higher than the rolling 10 year average?

You beat me to it. I was going to say that our climate so biased towards anomalous warmth that even the cooling is warming.

[Stratos Ferric]

By the way, one scoring dimension that we didn't think of is the "least bad" punt. Hats off, therefore to Village Plank, who is the only remaining entrant in the full competition without a guess of 2.0C or more away from the final outturn - his worst being 1.9C. SB also deserves a mention because his second worst is 1.7C. But for his total dog's dinner of a January (5.4C out) he would be a lot further up the overall table.

[VillagePlank]

I hope you're charging for this VP!

Well, the standard mechanism for charging is on a professional day. I reckon £1.5k + VAT seems quite fair. NW to pick up th bill, perhaps? B)

[DR Hosking]

I seem to find myself 17th overall for Autumn so far, not bad considering both temperatures so far were more or less guesses! Pleased to see i am well ahead of many more illustrious and knowledgeable members! Maybe too much knowledge is a bad thing!

[acbrixton]

Andrew, lol. Or we could have the opposite of April?

Richard that would mean either 5.1 (2.4 below the 10 year running mean) or 3.8 (3.1 below the 1971-2000 mean). The former last occurred in 1993 and in 14 other years back to 1900, whilst the latter last occurred in 1925 and in 4 other years back to 1900. [interesting to note that from 1901-1925 the former anomaly was recorded 10 times and the latter anomaly was recorded 5 times between 1910 and 1925].

I would say that 5.1 is unlikely whilst 3.8 is a distinctly remote possibility now. (Mind you positive November anomalies. 9.9 and 10.0 was recorded only once in the entire CET record: 1991).

kind regards

Andrew

[Stratos Ferric]

...Maybe too much knowledge is a bad thing!

Not a bad thing, just absolutely no help whatsoever when it cones to making forecasts more than 4-5 days out.

[damianslaw]

Preety pleased with my prediction of 10.9 degrees, just 0.1 degree out and following on with being spot on with Septembers, i think i can allow myself a clap on the back.

[West is Best]

Richard that would mean

Andrew I wasn't being literal - a metaphorical obverse of April is all I meant we could have. Or not!

[acbrixton]

Andrew I wasn't being literal - a metaphorical obverse of April is all I meant we could have. Or not!

richard apologies! I got rather carried away...I was surprised to learn though that a cold anomaly of the same magnitude as April re the November 10 year running mean was not as rare as I had assumed.

kind regards

ACB

[osmposm]

Preety pleased with my prediction of 10.9 degrees, just 0.1 degree out and following on with being spot on with Septembers, i think i can allow myself a clap on the back.

I suppose a 'clap on the back' is a cross beween 'a pat on the back' and a round of applause - in which case it's rather good, as mixed metaphors go.....and certainly deserved, mate, for the last two months. But it's a darned sight tougher to keep up the record over more entries!!

[Optimus Prime]

Metoffice review;

"Mean temperatures ranging from close to average across East Anglia and SE England to over 1 °C above average across Northern Ireland and Scotland. Rainfall generally well below average across the UK, although slightly above average rainfall over a narrow band from Oxfordshire to the Wash. Sunshine levels generally above average across the UK, although close to or below average across the Northern and Western Isles, East Anglia and SE England.

Normanby Hall (Lincolnshire) recorded a maximum temperature of 20.9 °C on 12th. Aboyne (Aberdeenshire) recorded a minimum temperature of -4.9 °C on 25th. Brize Norton (Oxfordshire) recorded 64.8 mm of rainfall on the 16th."

"England diary of highlightsIt was a very quiet October across England with high pressure close by for much of the month. However, there were brief incursions of more unsettled weather that brought some locally heavy rain.

The provisional mean value for the month is 10.7 °C, which is 0.5 °C above the 1961-1990 average."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2007/october.html

Climate-uk;

"

Both mean max and mean min temperature for the month were close to 0.5degC above the long-term average over England & Wales, and around 1.5degC above in Scotland and Northern Ireland; it was the coolest October since 2004, but as measured by the CET it ranked 23rd warmest in the last 100 years. Rainfall was below normal almost everywhere, apart from a narrow zone extending from Gloucestershire to The Wash which caught the heaviest rain on the 16th. Averaged over England and Wales this was the driest October since 1995. Less than 20 per cent of the normal fell local in eastern Scotland and in the Channel Islands. Sunshine was plentiful in Scotland and Northern Ireland with excess of 30-40 per cent in places, but much of the Midlands and Southeast had a rather cloudy month."