October 2007 CET

[acbrixton]

My guess is 11.0.

thanks

Regards

ACB

[Wynn D Woo]

An almost late 10.9 for me please.

[Nick F]

I think a warmer and drier than average first half to the month looks on the cards, perhaps an average and more unsettled 2nd half:

11.9°C

[J10]

I'll go for 11.0c

[LadyPakal]

10.6 as a first attempt.

S'funny guessing about the CET when it's usually cooler here - the CET seems almost balmy in comparison at times. Is there a CST I wonder?

[tesaro]

10.2 for me please. Warm start, tailing off towards the middle, less said about the end the better.

[kold weather]

Will go for 11.7C for the October CET, was tempted to go a good 1C higher mind you givne the likely strength of the Scandi high over the first 15 days but I'm not sure how the NAO signal will evolve past the 15th and that may well lead to a cooler last 10 days of the month.

[noggin]

I'll have 10.9 please. Ta.

I've been decorating the room for the past week and have only just got reconnected!

[Mark H]

Im expecting a mild start and a coolish end to the month. 11.6 for me.

Cheers.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm being very reserved of late...but wait until my Nov CET ..then you'll see something...what suspense

BFTP

[Terminal Moraine]

10.6c I think.

T.M

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I think a warmer and drier than average first half to the month looks on the cards, perhaps an average and more unsettled 2nd half:

11.9°C

Bless.

[Costa Del Fal]

Ill go for 11.5c

[Devon-Nelly]

Is it too late for me to put mine down? if not i reckon 10.9c warm dry periods alternating with slightly cooler wetter periods possible cold snap near end of month.

[Stratos Ferric]

A lot to consider this month, if, like me, you've pitched too high over summer. The SST signature, that I am attributing the cool season to, is still there, though far less markedly: that suggests cool, but less cool than recent months.

September dropped off fairly significantly h1-h2; I don't see October doing the same without first warming (or at least stabilising), and the projections for h1 look fairly mild, and I'm biased to the projection I must admit because it's roughly what I'd expected before now.

So, say 12 by around midway; October rarely drops off more than 1-1.5C, so with half an eye on my recent error I'm going to pitch low 11s, with a horrible feeling that I might be doing a reverse Tamara...

11.2

[acbrixton]

10.6 as a first attempt.

S'funny guessing about the CET when it's usually cooler here - the CET seems almost balmy in comparison at times. Is there a CST I wonder?

LadyPakal there is no 'official' MO CST series but Philip Eden has constructed an 'unofficial' CST (see his website: climate-uk).

Regards

ACB

[Geordiesnow]

I'm going to change my prediction of a 10.7 to a 11.1 due to this warm week coming up.

[Glacier Point]

Tough, tough call. Probably the hardest call so far because we face the choice between a very warm and below average pattern, poised on a knifedge.

A trough in the Atlantic is an absolutely certainty as events in the Pacific take effect. Without lots of effective blocking, this is a warm pattern. However, the SSTA is predisposed to a -NAO and we are due some -AO although perhaps not the rampant -AO that is due for November.

Therefore, something of a pattern change mid month to a -NAO / -AO, but not totally sustained and the warmth to outweigh the cold, just. A month of extremes also. The first 10 days will deliver a +1.6 to +2 anomaly although some doubt beyond six days.

11.2 C please.

[Gavin P]

Final CET from me;

10.1

Rainfall;

120%

Sunshine;

150%

Warm start, then become more unsettled and a noteworthy cold spell in the final week or ten days.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Tough, tough call. Probably the hardest call so far because we face the choice between a very warm and below average pattern, poised on a knifedge.

A trough in the Atlantic is an absolutely certainty as events in the Pacific take effect. Without lots of effective blocking, this is a warm pattern. However, the SSTA is predisposed to a -NAO and we are due some -AO although perhaps not the rampant -AO that is due for November.

Therefore, something of a pattern change mid month to a -NAO / -AO, but not totally sustained and the warmth to outweigh the cold, just. A month of extremes also. The first 10 days will deliver a +1.6 to +2 anomaly although some doubt beyond six days.

11.2 C please.

My rainiest congrats on you becoming a council member!

[Thundery wintry showers]

A near average first week, much above average from then until midmonth, but a cool final third, so I go for:

11.6C

[Kentish Man]

Sorry missed the deadline by a few minutes - I wait your judgement as to whether I face a deduction!

My punt is for a pleasant warm October with a rare visitation for this year of TC air. Colder final third of the month.

11.7C

[cheeky_monkey]

yeah me 2 ..i ben away for a long weekend..jus got home..anyways 10.4c please

[Duncan McAlister]

Remind me NEVER to predict a below average month again, it's a jinx, the only time I've done this is April, and look how successful that was

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

I think it's a strong possibility that in 10 or so days time we will be talking about a possible record month

Edited October 1, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[Joneseye]

I think it's a strong possibility that in 10 or so days time we will be talking about a possible record month

Steady on there! 10 days is a long time in meteorology...