October 2007 CET

[lukenmudge]

Put me down for a 12.3C. I agree with an ealier suggestion of a dominant euro high. Wet and mild all the way folks.

LM

[Stratos Ferric]

Steady on there! 10 days is a long time in meteorology...

It is, but then everything balances out (more or less) eventually: we repeatedly, individually and collectively, overlook the fact: some combination of dry / warm is to be expected following June - Aug.

[Intrepid]

I'l go for 10.9c if its not too late.

[summer blizzard]

8.5C: WhiteXmas

9C: Swfc

9.5C: West Is Best

9.6C: Optimus Prime

9.7C: Skwales100

9.8C: Stormchaser 1

9.9C: Snowyoul9

9.9C: Sundog

10C: Fish Dude

10C: Eddie

10C: Shuggee

10.1C: Ned

10.1C: Gavin P

10.2C: Snow Hope

10.2C: Matty M

10.2C: Duncan McAlister

10.2C: Hiya

10.2C: Tesaro

10.3C: Mega Moonflake

10.4C: Barry

10.5C: Norrance

10.5C: Rain Rain Rain

10.6C: Memories Of 63

10.6C: Osbourne One-Nil

10.6C: Roger J Smith

10.6C: Stargazer

10.6C: Blast From the Past

10.6C: Joneseye

10.6C: Lady Pakal

10.6C: Terminal Moraine

10.7C: Anti-Mild

10.7C: John Acc

10.7C: Stu London

10.7C: Snowsure

10.7C: Paul Carfoot

10.7C: Phil N.Warks

10.8C: Beng

10.8C: Snowray

10.8C: Osmposm

10.9C: Mr Data

10.9C: Mark Bayley

10.9C: Damian Slaw

10.9C: Atlantic Flamethrower

10.9C: Village Plank

10.9C: Windswept

10.9C: Noggin

10.9C: Devon-Nelly

11C: Slipknotsam

11C: Steve Murr

11C: Slinky

11C: Weather Master

11C: Jemtom

11C: Vizzy 2004

11C: Acbrixton

11C: Jackone

11.1C: Dr Hosking

11.1C: Mr Maunder

11.1C: Geordie Snow

11.2C: Cymru

11.2C: Steve B

11.2C: Snowraven

11.2C: Stratos Ferric

11.2C: Glacier Point

11.3C: Snowmaiden

11.3C: Laser Guy

11.4C: UkMoose

11.4C: Summer Blizzard

11.4C: Don

11.4C: Somerset Squall

11.5C: Sunshine

11.5C: The PIT

11.5C: The Calm Before The Storm

11.5C: Blizzards

11.6C: Bottesford

11.6C: Mark H

11.6C: Thundery Wintry Showers

11.7C: Reef

11.7C: Kold Weather

11.8C: Persian Paladin

11.8C: Dancc

11.9C: Nick F

12.2C: Rollo

12.3C: Cal

12.9C: Mammantus

13C: Stephen Prudence

13.1C: Snowing Man

14C: Craig Evans

1 Day late!!!

10.4C: Cheeky_Monkey

10.9C: Intrepid

11.7C: Kentish Man

12.3C: Lukenmudge

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

8.5C: WhiteXmas

9C: Swfc

9.5C: West Is Best

9.6C: Optimus Prime

9.7C: Skwales100

9.8C: Stormchaser 1

9.9C: Snowyoul9

9.9C: Sundog

10C: Fish Dude

10C: Eddie

10C: Shuggee

10.1C: Ned

10.1C: Gavin P

10.2C: Snow Hope

10.2C: Matty M

10.2C: Duncan McAlister

10.2C: Hiya

10.2C: Tesaro

10.3C: Mega Moonflake

10.4C: Barry

10.5C: Norrance

10.5C: Rain Rain Rain

10.6C: Memories Of 63

10.6C: Osbourne One-Nil

10.6C: Roger J Smith

10.6C: Stargazer

10.6C: Blast From the Past

10.6C: Joneseye

10.6C: Lady Pakal

10.6C: Terminal Moraine

10.7C: Anti-Mild

10.7C: John Acc

10.7C: Stu London

10.7C: Snowsure

10.7C: Paul Carfoot

10.7C: Phil N.Warks

10.8C: Beng

10.8C: Snowray

10.8C: Osmposm

10.9C: Mr Data

10.9C: Mark Bayley

10.9C: Damian Slaw

10.9C: Atlantic Flamethrower

10.9C: Village Plank

10.9C: Windswept

10.9C: Noggin

10.9C: Devon-Nelly

11C: Slipknotsam

11C: Steve Murr

11C: Slinky

11C: Weather Master

11C: Jemtom

11C: Vizzy 2004

11C: Acbrixton

11C: Jackone

11.1C: Dr Hosking

11.1C: Mr Maunder

11.1C: Geordie Snow

11.2C: Cymru

11.2C: Steve B

11.2C: Snowraven

11.2C: Stratos Ferric

11.2C: Glacier Point

11.3C: Snowmaiden

11.3C: Laser Guy

11.4C: UkMoose

11.4C: Summer Blizzard

11.4C: Don

11.4C: Somerset Squall

11.5C: Sunshine

11.5C: The PIT

11.5C: The Calm Before The Storm

11.5C: Blizzards

11.6C: Bottesford

11.6C: Mark H

11.6C: Thundery Wintry Showers

11.7C: Reef

11.7C: Kold Weather

11.8C: Persian Paladin

11.8C: Dancc

11.9C: Nick F

12.2C: Rollo

12.3C: Cal

12.9C: Mammantus

13C: Stephen Prudence

13.1C: Snowing Man

14C: Craig Evans

1 Day late!!!

10.4C: Cheeky_Monkey

10.9C: Intrepid

11.7C: Kentish Man

12.3C: Lukenmudge

14 and 8.5 lol thats mental

[summer blizzard]

Could somebody explain how the points system works again, is it dependant on the number of entries ect...??

[Duncan McAlister]

Steady on there! 10 days is a long time in meteorology...

Just sticking my neck out, I'll be delighted to be wrong, but these warm synoptics forecast (High over Scandy/Europe, Low to our west) seemed to take some shifting last autumn....

[kippure]

11.2c :wacko:

[Stu_London]

Could somebody explain how the points system works again, is it dependant on the number of entries ect...??

If it was SB - you would have won it by now for sure! :wacko:

JACKONE will tell you how it all works (he's the only one who knows for sure)

Up to 8th in the overall comp for me. Regret my late entry and 2 non entries in December and January

[memories of 63]

Is it my imagination but are the number of people entering these competitions increasing as we approach Winter?

If so they must all be warm lovers as there's very few going for a below average month!!!

[Joneseye]

Is it my imagination but are the number of people entering these competitions increasing as we approach Winter?

If so they must all be warm lovers as there's very few going for a below average month!!!

I think a lot of that is due to the model output in the run up to the start of the month, which has been consistently showing well above average. It certainly made my call a difficult one, especially after the recent run of CET.

[memories of 63]

I think a lot of that is due to the model output in the run up to the start of the month, which has been consistently showing well above average. It certainly made my call a difficult one, especially after the recent run of CET.

Looking at the 00z ensembles, I wouldn't like to predict anything after the 6th October :lol:

[Stratos Ferric]

Could somebody explain how the points system works again, is it dependant on the number of entries ect...??

You need at least ten entries in the year to qualify for the annual competition, and all three months to be eligible for each of the seasonal competitions.

Because the score is essentially derived from a series of averages there is no advantage to be had for having 12 entries rather than 10, save for one of the criteria which does tally cumulative accuracy based on points, though if I remember rightly the weighting for this is 1/7th of the total.

The four items scored are:

i - overall position in month (=average position across all months)

ii - overall position in month (=cumulative points score across year to date)

iii - accuracy points - these awarded based on landing within, I think, 0.5C of the outturn (=average accuracy) plus 1 point for having guessed correctly above or below the thirty year norm.

iv - absolute margin (=cumulative average absolute margin)

At the end of each month the current ranking is produced for each list, and a points value attached for each eligible person based on a score from 1..n, where n is the total number of eligible people, and that number of points is given to the first placed person on the list.

The points per person are summed, save for item (ii) where the points are first halved. The overall list is then produced by ranking in order of total points across all four categories.

[osmposm]

Up to 8th in the overall comp for me. Regret my late entry and 2 non entries in December and January

Oh no you're not, you rotter - I am 8th, thank you. You are a whole 2.5 points behind me in 9th......though I (and several others) am very grateful for that 20 point late deduction!!

This month we've guessed just 0.1 apart, so unless one of us is spot on, I imagine we'll be neck-and-neck for a while yet .

[Kentish Man]

Two days in, Hadley has the CET at 12.0C

[Anti-Mild]

Two days in, Hadley has the CET at 12.0C

Which, although P.Eden hasn't updated his site, is sure to be below the rolling average, by about 1c.

[The PIT]

Which, although P.Eden hasn't updated his site, is sure to be below the rolling average, by about 1c.

Phil has it at +1.1C to the 3rd can't see it sliding to -1.1C to be honest.

Edited October 4, 2007 by The PIT

[Stratos Ferric]

Phil has it at +1.1C to the 3rd can't see it sliding to -1.1C to be honest.

It's an interesting "old fashioned" looking set up for the next week or so; nights might be cool or mild depending on cloud; days ditto. I'd reckon the net effect will be par or slightly above and I'd be surprised if we're not above par, probably still by around a degree, by the end of the first third.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Now i must severly apologise for my exceptionally late entry! but i am willing to face point deductions, i will put for 11.0 my forecast will be avaliable over the weekend. Sorry again for th lateness.

SM06

[Optimus Prime]

Some interesting statistics;

October would need to average 16.2c (5.8c) to beat last years record warm September/October combination.

Or for a record warm Autumn (to beat last year)

At the very least;

October would need to average 13.6c (+3.2c)

November 10.6c (+3.7c)

Or to equal last year;

October; 13.5c

November; 10.6c

Or for a record cold Autumn set in 1786 (7.5c)

October would need to average 5.4c

November 3.0c

Extremely unlikely...

So we really need to record warm months in a row, and by some way beating the previous record sets.

Nice to know a record warm autumn is extremely unlikely.

[damianslaw]

It could well be another month where we have very different cet values for each half i.e. first half looks at this stage of coming in above average but the second half could well do what Sept did be below average.

[Stratos Ferric]

Some interesting statistics;

October would need to average 16.2c (5.8c) to beat last years record warm September/October combination.

Or for a record warm Autumn (to beat last year)

At the very least;

October would need to average 13.6c (+3.2c)

November 10.6c (+3.7c)

Or to equal last year;

October; 13.5c

November; 10.6c

Or for a record cold Autumn set in 1786 (7.5c)

October would need to average 5.4c

November 3.0c

Extremely unlikely...

So we really need to record warm months in a row, and by some way beating the previous record sets.

Nice to know a record warm autumn is extremely unlikely.

OP, surely with two months left all of the above are multivariate i.e. for example, to record a record in either direction there is a cumulative level that must be exceeded in one direction or the other. It isn't that October must reach X and November must reach Y, so much as October + November together must total more than A or less than B. Or am I misconstruing your point?

I think a record would always have been unlikely. Records of the same polarity for a particular season have never occurred consecutively in the established CET record.

[Weather-history]

This is how warm October can get

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=33048

[osmposm]

Fascinating read, Mr D.

Interesting that it came at the end of a 13-month run of above average months - the very next month, November 1921, broke it with a well-below average 4.6 CET....lower, in fact, than our current December average!

And what happened to the Camden Square observatory, I wonder - it seems to have been recording continuously from 1858 till at least 1957?

Edit: Sorry, mods, I've gone way off-topic - please feel free to move to Historic Weather next to Mr D's original post.

Edited October 5, 2007 by osmposm

[West is Best]

It could well be another month where we have very different cet values for each half i.e. first half looks at this stage of coming in above average but the second half could well do what Sept did be below average.

Hi - except that I don't think the first half will be so comparatively warm at all. I know the daytime maxes have been good (although actually they're average) but the night-times look to be cool. Certainly tonight is cold in the CET zone.

We have an interesting situation now - a high pressure but too early for inversion. The maxes look to hold up well, but the mins are low so the CET will not be high at this rate: in fact there are likely to be some single figure 'days'. Philip currently has it riding 0.9C above average for the time of month, but that will already be virtually back to average after tonights cold temps.

At this early stage an average October looks quite likely, or even below. It's zonality that's really needed to bring something well above average and there's no sign of that at all. It's a very blocked setup.

It's an interesting "old fashioned" looking set up for the next week or so; nights might be cool or mild depending on cloud; days ditto. I'd reckon the net effect will be par or slightly above and I'd be surprised if we're not above par, probably still by around a degree, by the end of the first third.

Prepare to be surprised then!

Seriously though, it'll all be down to those mins. Distinctly nippy tonight. If the HP is right over the top of us we won't go above average imho. If it slips and allows cloud cover that's a different prospect.