Winter 2007 - Early predictions...?

[Cat 5]

Just noticed a range of winter bets.

Snow on Christmas Day Betting: 4/1 Aberdeen, 4/1 Glasgow, 6/1 London, 6/1 Cardiff

18/1 that the lowest recorded temperature in England will be beaten (-26.1C, Jan 10 1982, Shropshire),

16/1 that the lowest temperature in Scotland will be beaten (-27.2C, Jan 10th 1982, Aberdeenshire)

22/1 for the record in Wales to be beaten (-23.3C, 21st Jan, 1940 Powys).

100/1 that the Thames will freeze over between Westminster bridge and Tower bridge.

100/1 Big Ben Fails to chime due to being frozen solid

I know that anyone backing these would be doing so for 'fun' but do any of you have any thoughts on a white chrsitmas? Are the odds of 4/1 in scotland and 6/1 in England about right?

My fingers are crossed for a harsh, early winter (sorry farmers!).

Cat 5

[shuggee]

That bet for Aberdeen is a lot lower than in previous years. I put one on last year at something like 11/1 a fortnight out. What do they know that we don't?!

[jethro]

Just noticed a range of winter bets.

Snow on Christmas Day Betting: 4/1 Aberdeen, 4/1 Glasgow, 6/1 London, 6/1 Cardiff

18/1 that the lowest recorded temperature in England will be beaten (-26.1C, Jan 10 1982, Shropshire),

16/1 that the lowest temperature in Scotland will be beaten (-27.2C, Jan 10th 1982, Aberdeenshire)

22/1 for the record in Wales to be beaten (-23.3C, 21st Jan, 1940 Powys).

100/1 that the Thames will freeze over between Westminster bridge and Tower bridge.

100/1 Big Ben Fails to chime due to being frozen solid

I know that anyone backing these would be doing so for 'fun' but do any of you have any thoughts on a white chrsitmas? Are the odds of 4/1 in scotland and 6/1 in England about right?

My fingers are crossed for a harsh, early winter (sorry farmers!).

Cat 5

Hey Cat,

Not so sure about odds as to whether they're right or not, I've only bet twice in my life once on the Grand National (Aldenity, years ago and he won) and last crimbo for a laugh, without success. Paddy Power last November offered 8/1 for white christmas in London.

[VillagePlank]

That bet for Aberdeen is a lot lower than in previous years. I put one on last year at something like 11/1 a fortnight out. What do they know that we don't?!

At this stage they want the money in. Depending on what goes on and what goes against, they adjust their odds so no matter what the payout they still get their 25%. Selling hope, really, rather than anything else, I reckon.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the odds on a white Christmas should be about 6/1 for Aberdeen, 8/1 for most other major Scottish centres, and 10/1 over much of England. Odds should be longer for snow cover, but a 'white Christmas' is defined as a Christmas with at least one flake of sleet/snow falling.

I'm very much with Philip Eden's rants on this one; to my mind a two-minute flurry of sleet isn't a white Christmas, while a Christmas with deep snow cover but no snowfall (as widely happened in 1981, and also in some parts in 1995) is surely a white Christmas.