Met Office Winter Forecast

[londonsnow]

Just so you all know (and i'm sure many do already), the met office will be releasing their winter forecast at approx 10am tomorrow. will be interesting reading hopefully!

[VillagePlank]

[Hiya]

thought they set it back until the 12th October?

[londonsnow]

thought they set it back until the 12th October?

it supposedly goes live on the website and is issued to the media tomorrow morning

[M'Lady]

I'm astonished they have't asked me to cut the ribbon...

[swales]

Great news.

[Mark Bayley]

Carn't wait. It will proberly say above average though

[Turnedoutniceagain]

No doubt we'll all be underwhelmed as usual.

Whatever it says, the Express will have pictures of frozen landscapes on the frontpage with dire predictions of an impending ice-age by Xmas

[Don]

I very much expect it will say something along the lines of;

Colder and drier than last Winter, but still above the 1971-2000 average!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I very much expect it will say something along the lines of;

Colder and drier than last Winter, but still above the 1971-2000 average!

:huh:

Whoa....Mystic Don !! (as a betting man I fear you maybe spot on though )

[Mark Bayley]

No doubt we'll all be underwhelmed as usual.

Whatever it says, the Express will have pictures of frozen landscapes on the frontpage with dire predictions of an impending ice-age by Xmas :huh:

I bet if the met said the mildest winter on record theuy would still say where going to freeze

[Don]

Whoa....Mystic Don !! (as a betting man I fear you maybe spot on though :huh: )

Well a Winter above the 1971-200 average can still produce some good wintry spells, so all won't be lost.

[Nick F]

MetO already have a hint of what maybe instore in their preliminary winter forecast release on this page:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso.../nao/index.html

Early indications for Winter 2007/8 (December, January and February)

Temperature

Last winter was exceptionally warm over much of Europe and the second warmest on record for the UK. The signal from the statistical method suggests Winter 2007/8 is likely to be less mild for Europe as a whole than 2006/7. For western Europe, including the UK, indications favour temperatures less mild than last year, but still above the 1971-2000 normal.

Rainfall

Above-normal precipitation was experienced over the UK last winter with 130% of the long-term UK average. Early indications suggest that Winter 2007/8 is likely to be closer to normal.

[VillagePlank]

MetO already have a hint of what maybe instore in their preliminary winter forecast release on this page:

Hi Nick,

Yes, another, how can I put it, less that substantive forecast. Still, to be expected, and the MetO know exactly how unpredictable long term forecasts really are. Still, if I recall correctly, they judged their statistical methods, at this range, at at least 66% They are running out of the other 34%, recently, methinks ...

[Stratos Ferric]

SATSIGs METO winter forecast report:

If it says it's going to be a cold one, people will believe it, heap praise on it, but pour scorn as and when it doesn't turn up.

If it says it's not going to be cold, people will find all sorts of spurious reasons not to believe it, and then forget it if it does turn up.

Either way, it will be no more or less helpful than a very grainy picture of a blonde haired girl who may or may not be a missing person.

[Anti-Mild]

SATSIGs METO winter forecast report:

If it says it's going to be a cold one, people will believe it, heap praise on it, but pour scorn as and when it doesn't turn up.

If it says it's not going to be cold, people will find all sorts of spurious reasons not to believe it, and then forget it if it does turn up.

Either way, it will be no more or less helpful than a very grainy picture of a blonde haired girl who may or may not be a missing person.

Good point and, sadly, a true one.

I know that many people on this forum (and I count myself as one of them) will see an above average forecast and reject it out of hand and dismiss the MetO as charlatans at best and a government mouthpiece at worst, whereas a cold forecast will see the MetO hailed as the savior of the 'Great British Winter' and the forecast will be lauded across the land.

Tomorrow will determine the true nature of the Met Office! Hopefully, our saviors !!

[Roger J Smith]

Just for fun, since I am having trouble predicting the weather, I will try to predict their forecast instead.

The METOFFICE blah blah, leading authorities blah blah, almost never wrong blah blah, believes there is a very good chance that this winter will be close to normal. It may be milder, or colder, but not by so much that people will say, oh my God, what is happening, is this now Spain, or alternatively, Finland? No, the weather will be very much like it always is, mild with drizzle, but not really that mild, cold with drizzle after you've been out in it for some time.

There will be one extra day of it too, as 2008 is a leap year.

---------------------------------

Okay, that was meant to be a joke. Now here's what I think they will really say. The METOFFICE blah blah has studied the blah blah and believes that this winter will be near normal in temperature, with some mild spells alternating with some cold spells, and also rather dry on the whole, although with frequent light precipitation in a chilly northwesterly flow of maritime polar air masses that have a long fetch over the Atlantic and therefore are no longer below freezing, but chilly compared to last winter's generally unseasonable warmth. There is probably only a slight chance of any really cold weather, with disruptions from snow or ice, but if these occur, we will be sure to tell you about them the night before, or at least the morning of.

[Paul]

Now available:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20070927.html

[Osbourne One-Nil]

HAHAHAHA - either I'm reading it wrong or they're hedging their bets when it comes to rainfall.

[Megamoonflake]

Hmmmm, guess it's going to be a dry mild winter by their reckoning. Why couldn't that of been the case for summer, and to have a cold wet winter forecasted. I'm sure most people like a proper summer and a proper winter, it's getting to the point that any month has a chance of being the warmest, and that we can expect to see bedding plants in December and leaves falling off trees in May in the future me thinks!!! :lol:

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Underwhelming :lol:

[Gavin P]

A lot is being pinned on the La Nina prediction, that it will intensify as the winter goes on, IMO.

[Anti-Mild]

That took up a lot of space without really saying that much.

Pretty much as expected, milder than the 71-00 mean could have been predicted by anyone with even the most fundamental knowledge in the climate.

[John Cox]

My take on this forecast is that if Global Warming was not taken into account then we could have a much colder winter than of late.

Hedging their bets alright. So all to play for :lol:

[shuggee]

So it's a 55% chance of below 4.3ºC for the winter period.

As long as the prediction of it being noticeably colder than last year comes true (coldest since 95/96 indeed lol) - then many will be happy :lol: