Met Office Winter Forecast

[John Cox]

Hi Tamara,

Yes I am keeping well and hope you are too. :lol:

I am beginning to wake up from my summer slumber.

As it is their 1st winter forecast it would be unexpected I suppose for them to stick their necks out too much. I suppose we need to put it in light with their updates and see how accurate they will end up being. This is part of the fun too, seeing how accurate they are and the predictions from our regular long range forcasters here on NW.

Roll on winter.

Hi John - hope you are well

Tamara

[Evo]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...7_8/europe.html - above normal Atlantic, colder Arctic?

I think they'd be better off using different colours for the temperature chart - the use is slightly misleading really. The colours relate to probabilities rather than absolute temperatures. The blood red colour over the Atlantic could lead a layman to head off for Greenland with a suitcase full of skimpy clothing.

[PB22]

Its about what I expected really. Any LRF can only really be based on probabilities in my opinion, and this is exactly what the Met Office have done. In this day and age, it would be very bold indeed to go against the warming trend that has been evident in recent years. I also agree with Gavin, I think they are very much basing the forecast on what happens with La Nina. All to play for overall.

[snowking]

Haha well yet another back-coverer by the met office (when is it any different )

Heres some classic examples from this particular forecast:

"Above-normal winter temperatures are more likely......this winter is likely to be less mild in most regions than last winter" Met Office 2007

What the heck?! So basically if its an exceptionally cold winter they can say well we did say it would be colder than last winter, and if its above average they can say well we told you it would be

"Although a winter milder than the 1971-2000 average is favoured, temperatures are likely to be noticeably colder than those experienced in the very warm winter last year" Met Office 2007

Exactly the same sort of stuff once more

"However, this signal is not sufficient to indicate whether winter precipitation totals are more likely to be above or below the 1971-2000 average" Met Office 2007

Oh, guess what, theyre sitting on the fence! Theres something new (also shown by the very pretty diagram as pointed out by OON)

"This winter we are predicting a near-neutral North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)" Met Office 2007

No, surely not? So that can mean slightly above OR slightly below the middle....but exactly how far does the 'neutral' section stretch?

I could go on and on but i realise i am probably boreing you, the simple truth is that even if i were not a weather enthusiast and couldnt forecast just breaking it down section by section this is doing the exact same thing some people who claim to be psychic or spiritualist mediums do, which is word things in such a broad context that either way they can claim they were right. Based on this forecast the met office can claim either way that they are correct

In conclusion, what does it show? It shows that there are so many unusual things about the set up this year that they too, like many of us, have not a clue whats going to happen, on gut instinct i go for a below average winter, largely owing the the fact that ive been expected 07/08 to be fairly cool for a couple of years now, but again i cannot be sure of that

Weather forecasting is a fickle business, and forecasts like this are not informative at all

Regards

SK

Edited September 27, 2007 by snowking

[laserguy]

Five minutes of my time gone West. I could have read the same thing in six words: "Er,we haven't got a clue".

[PB22]

Come on then you bashers, lets see your efforts for the winter ahead, and then we can judge them at the end.

[laserguy]

Come on then you bashers, lets see your efforts for the winter ahead, and then we can judge them at the end.

Well of course I haven't got the foggiest either,but then I'm not a meteorologist with about 500 trillion pounds worth of computers to play with. Where's Brightspark? If his summer forecast is anything to go by,he's the Man!

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Weather forecasting is a fickle business, and forecasts like this are not informative at all

Regards

SK

It's not that they're not informative (what it tells us is that they can't be sure but are leaning to slightly milder than recent norm), so much as that they can't be certain. As I said yesterday, had they experimentally posted a forecast showing certain cold then:

1 - I suspect several posters on here would be lauding the forecast; and,

2 - that forecast, in practice, would almost certainly be no more reliable.

There's no point in pretending to be more accurate than they are capable of being, just like there's no point in calculating an average to 5 d.p.s if the measurements being averaged are whole integers.

[Richie V]

Now available:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20070927.html

Sorry to be a sour macaroon n all that but that winter forecast is the biggest pile of basic pin the tail on the donkey I've ever seen!

Yes I know It's hard, if not impossible to forecast out this far but C'mon... seriously, my cat could have come up with that. I seriously think that no one really knows what the coming three months hold especially with the events of this summer and all. It's still september and all a little far away to be even giving a basic guess on the forthcoming winters conditions.

At least the daily liar.... Oops, I mean daily express have a better go than that even if it is all a phat phantasy!

Rant over

[Geordiesnow]

With all due repsect chassisbot, would you say that if it was showing a colder than average winter?

The forecast is based on alot of technical weather words like the La Nina etc and not just write anyhting and hope to be correct.

[swales]

The times report; (on the met office winter forecast)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article2545149.ece

[acbrixton]

Sound points made by Paul and SF.

Now lets wait for:

1. the first media misrepresentation (Express/Mail) along the lines of "Weathermen predict cold winter";

2. the consequent calls (from the same sources) for the "weathermen" to be publically garotted when it transpires that the winter was not colder than normal...

Regards

ACB

[nkaol2001]

Just so you all know (and i'm sure many do already), the met office will be releasing their winter forecast at approx 10am tomorrow. will be interesting reading hopefully!

No doubt there will be dire warnings of a terrible winter, which they manage to say every year, yet never have the guts to apologise when somehow or other......surprise, surprise they get it completely & utterly wrong.

Personally, I think it will be dry, mild but cloudy with very light winds in the main, something akin to 1988/9. i.e. a decent winter or as near decent as you can get in this country All this never ending rain & cold is what kills so many folk here, so it would be nice for Nature to behave itself for once & give us a " normal" winter. Here's hoping!!!

[tinybill]

Nice weather ahead from this Sunday, with a huge High Pressure over much of Central, Northern and Eastern Europe

appearing to be the major driving force.

Things are looking rather good for a very cold Winter, considering the Scandi and Siberian High Pressures

are progged to form so early in the Autumn.

evenina

evening all this is on yarhoo to-night

There will be a return to colder weather this winter, forecasters have predict

An official forecast from the Met Office suggests that although this winter will be slightly warmer and drier than average, it will be noticeably colder than last year.

Britain enjoyed one of the warmest winters on record last year, but this winter is likely to be less mild in most regions.

On the bright side, we should expect far less rain than last year, the report indicates.

The 1971 to 2000 average winter temperature for the UK was 3.7C (38.7F), and rainfall 13in.

Last year saw an average temperature of 5.6C (42.8F) and an average rainfall of 17.2in.

Rob Varley, spokesman for the Met Office commented: "Most of the winters in the last 10 years have been relatively mild, with last winter being the second warmest on record.

"Although the Met Office has predicted the likelihood of another mild winter we expect it to be noticeably colder than last year. This advice will allow contingency and resource planners in Government and business to be better prepared for the winter ahead."

Met Office winter forecasting methods are based primarily on the influence of ocean temperatures, particularly the North Atlantic Ocean, on the European winter climate

[Richie V]

With all due repsect chassisbot, would you say that if it was showing a colder than average winter?

The forecast is based on alot of technical weather words like the La Nina etc and not just write anyhting and hope to be correct.

Even If it said, this winter is looking to be an unpresidented 7 C below average, I would treat it with the same level of caution.

The smallest variation on any given situation can have wide variations on the weather in this country, E.g a high pressure just 100 miles out of position dertimaineing (typo ) between mild and a minus 14 frost!!

The likes of la Ninia etc can still have un predicted small changes without warning, swaying one weather type on the other side of the world to another.

I think it would be wise, certanly here in the U.K to go through our winters on a more Hand to mouth basis rather than get upset when some longer range forecast doesn't quite go to plan!

[Guest Viking141]

A bigger pile of non-commital bunk would be hard to find! If they cant make up their mind at this stage then why bother? I fully appreciate ti must be difficult to forecast this far out so again I ask why bother?

[mcweather]

Hi there guys heres my punt on the Meto Forecast.

Firstly. predicting a cooler winter than the second warmest on record didn't take a great deal of working out.

Secondly and I know I bang on about this every year. One really shouldn't read to much into such general forecasts It would be quite possible for Britain to enjoy 2 weeks or so of scintillating cold and snowy weather a la Feb 1978 and yet still have what the statistics would describe as an average or mild winter.

Late January 1978 and early February 1978 provided two of three worst blizzards of the last 40 years one in Scotland and one in the south west yet the winter itself 77/78 did not even make it into the top twenty coldest winters of the twentieth century.

[Geordiesnow]

I just think the Met office are playing it safe at the moment and i could not care what they think the winter will be like. If the nezt winter forecast and say it could be mild then i may get concerned.

[swales]

Will there be a Net Weather winter forecast?

[nick sussex]

Unfortunately the met office are in a bit of a no win situation here. I think what they're trying to say is that theres no clear signal at present for anything outlandish in terms of colder or milder but because of recent trends the best bet would probably be something above the mean. You can't fault an organisation for trying, its just not possible at this stage for them to be more precise. It at least serves one purpose in derailing the anticipation for anything other than the bog standard winters of recent years. Expect nothing then be pleasantly surprised, rather that than people dusting off and polishing their sledges in readiness and then being faced by a pile of old rain sodden grass mush and misty mild drizzly murk!!! And anyway now that I'm in France I'll have to investigate what the meteo over here say but I'm pretty sure they'll probably follow the ukmo seeing as against what many think they are the leader in europe in conjunction with the ecmwf.

Edited September 27, 2007 by nick sussex

[kentish_sally]

Will there be a Net Weather winter forecast?

Taken from the net-weather homepage;

The long range forecast covering the rest of the Autumn and first 2 months of Winter will be updated during tommorrow, following a cool July, cool August and a September that is likely to end very close to if not below average, will the run continue?

eyes peeled for today then

[Don]

Taken from the net-weather homepage;

The long range forecast covering the rest of the Autumn and first 2 months of Winter will be updated during tommorrow, following a cool July, cool August and a September that is likely to end very close to if not below average, will the run continue?

eyes peeled for today then

I think the run of below average temperatures wll end in time for Winter if not before I'm sorry to say. Even in 1993, the Winter that followed was above average. IMO, 2007 has been a modern version of that year so far.

Edited September 27, 2007 by Don

[The PIT]

Oh dear the papers are going on about a big freeze already. Sorry lads a mild winter more likely than not.

[snowking]

It's not that they're not informative (what it tells us is that they can't be sure but are leaning to slightly milder than recent norm), so much as that they can't be certain. As I said yesterday, had they experimentally posted a forecast showing certain cold then:

1 - I suspect several posters on here would be lauding the forecast; and,

2 - that forecast, in practice, would almost certainly be no more reliable.

There's no point in pretending to be more accurate than they are capable of being, just like there's no point in calculating an average to 5 d.p.s if the measurements being averaged are whole integers.

I have not suggested that just because tey do not predict cold the forecast is open to slating, in this modern world of milder climates overall ts very difficult to envisage a hugely cold winter

Howvever you cannot deny from this forecast that they have simply worded their forecast very cleverly in order to cover their backs either way because they, like the rest of us, in all honestly dont have much more of a clue than a slightly educated guess based upon previous patterns that have occured uder similar summer/autumnal conditions (the dreaded pattern-matching)

Kind Regards

Kris

[snowhope]

The forecast really does not say a lot. Just general trends that they are observing.

I think at this stage nothing can be forecast. Our hottest summer ever did not come to fruition, this forecast is just as reliable.

We could exereince the coldest/snowiest winter of the last 30 years just as much as we could experience a winter akin or even warmer than last year. Although last year was warm I saw the most snow I have seen in many a year (food for thought)

Nothing to read into yet. Lets get through October first and see what that brings its difficult to predict next weeks weather!

Nothing to get dispondant about yet. (although i do give the METO a lot of respect with its forecasts, this is just far too far ahead for anyone to predict with any accuarcy.)

Gav