typhoon lekima

[mettalfabrik]

WTJP21 RJTD 300600

WARNING 300600.

WARNING VALID 010600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 0714 LEKIMA (0714) 992 HPA

AT 14.9N 115.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 15.3N 114.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 16.6N 114.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 18.6N 113.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 20.2N 110.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, after a quiet four or five days we have a new storm, Lekima. It looks like it's going to affect the same areas as Francisco did; scraping Hainan Island then making landfall in northeastern Vietnam, though this is still uncertain. Lekima has good outflow and wind shear is light, so the storm should strengthen before landfall, and as the warning Blackdown posted indicates, this one is likely to become a typhoon before doing so. It already has made the hop from a 25kt depression to 40kt tropical storm in the matter of hours.

The only constraint on this one is time it has over water, it only has two or three days, so we're unlikely to see a monster typhoon like a few we have monitored already this year.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm LEKIMA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Vietnam

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Lekima is now a 70kt typhoon. It is starting to effect Hainan Island before making landfall in Northern Vietnam within the next couple days. It's not expected to get much stronger if at all due to land interaction.

[Cookie]

Typhoon LEKIMA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Vietnam

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

[Somerset Squall]

From Met Office

Vietnamese government officials have estimated that the repair bill for the damage caused by Typhoon Lekima will exceed GBP 60 million.

Associated Press reported on October 10th that the confirmed death toll resulting from the typhoon had increased to 86 after 12 more bodies were found.

Lekima also destroyed 200,000 acres of crops and 6,000 homes in the socialist republic, while a further 52,000 houses were damaged.

A local official said the level of the flood waters had started to drop, but only very slowly.

Just goes to show that even a minimal typhoon can be just as devastating as the monsters.

Edited October 11, 2007 by Somerset Squall