tropical storm lingling

[mettalfabrik]

latest warnings for lingling, what do you reckon on this one somersetsquall

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI

NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 12 2007.

24 HR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 13 2007.

48 HR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 14 2007.

THIS HIGH SEAS FORECAST USES 1-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS WHICH MAY BE

HIGHER THAN 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... TROPICAL STORM LINGLING 25.4N

172.7E AT 0600 UTC MOVING NW 08 KT. MAX SUSTAINED WIND 40 KT

GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR

GREATER WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT

SEAS 9 TO 12 FT WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM ELSEWHERE.

NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE.

.24 HR FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM LINGLING 28.2N 169.1E. MAX

SUSTAINED WIND 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND

SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE WINDS

25 TO 30 KT SEAS 9 TO 12 FT WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM

ELSEWHERE.

.48 HR FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM LINGLING 30.5N 168.3E JUST

NORTH OF AREA. MAX SUSTAINED WIND 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. OVER

FORECAST AREA... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR

GREATER WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST

WATERS...WINDS 25 TO 30 KT SEAS 9 TO 12 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 165E

AND 171E.

SEE WTJP21 RJTD BULLETIN ISSUED BY JMA FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WTJP31 RJTD 121500

WARNING 121500.

WARNING VALID 131500.

STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 0718 LINGLING (0718) 994 HPA

AT 26.1N 172.1E NORTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 27.2N 170.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 28.4N 168.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Edited October 12, 2007 by blackdown

[Somerset Squall]

Hi Blackdown,

This one seems pretty straightforward in forecasting where it's going to go and it's intensity. Lingling isn't going to intensify much as it is ingesting cold and dry air from the northwest which should inhibit any real intensification- the JMA as you have posted have Lingling getting to 50kts which is probably as strong as it will get unless the dry air stops impinging on the system, but this is unlikely given it's location. In a couple days Lingling will be turning extratropical as it races northeastwards into cooler waters so it doesn't have much time anyway. Lingling will certainly be no threat to land.

Lingling is right to the east of this image, you can see the storm is well out to sea and will remain that way for it's reletively short lifetime:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

It's nice of you to ask for my opinion Blackdown- my knowledge is still quite limited about tropical cyclones, and the west pacific doesn't seem to generate much interest so I'm glad a few others enjoy following Pacific storms too.

[mettalfabrik]

thanks SS it backs up what i thought may happen, but its nice to read the thoughts of others,incidently i get most of my warnings /forecast from here http://weather.gmdss.org/index.html