TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KIKO

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Tropical Storm KIKO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Tropical Storm KIKO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Kiko has continued to become better organised, and a track very near Mexico is forecast so it could cause problems in the next few days. Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane under favourable conditions- IF it stays away from land.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS GRADUALLY

BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR

THE CENTER AND IMPROVING CIRRUS OUTFLOW. THE BANDING HAS NOT YET

INCREASED ENOUGH TO RAISE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM

CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF

EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM.

THE CENTER IS STILL BROAD AND HARD TO PIN DOWN EVEN WITH MICROWAVE

IMAGERY...BUT IT MAY BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE POSITION IN PREVIOUS

ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/3.

IN THE FIRST 48 HR OR SO...KIKO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO

NORTHWESTWARD AS PRESSURES RISE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF

AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED

STATES. AFTER 48 HR...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE HANDLING OF

A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. THE GFS

CONTINUES TO BUILD ENOUGH RIDGE BETWEEN KIKO AND THE TROUGH TO TURN

THE STORM WESTWARD. IN A NOTABLE CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...

THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF KIKO AND A NORTHWESTWARD

TO WESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO

BUILD THE RIDGE AFTER 48 HR...BUT IN A TWIST MOVES THE STORM

NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE NOGAPS

AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A PATTERN THAT

WOULD CAUSE A NORTHWARD MOTION INTO MEXICO. THE GFDL AND HWRF CALL

FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A MUCH FASTER SPEED THAN

THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE SIMILAR TO BUT

LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT

CALLS FOR A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO

THE BUILDING RIDGE. THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS LEFT OF AND SOMEWHAT

FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AT ABOUT THE SPEED OF THE ECMWF

AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THEM TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT

LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HR. SINCE KIKO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FARTHER

FROM LAND...THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY

INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST

CALLS FOR KIKO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR...AND THEN PEAK AT

ABOUT 96 HR AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR. THE NEW INTENSITIES

ARE HIGHER THAN THOSE OF THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT BELOW THOSE OF THE

GFDL...HWRF...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.8N 103.7W 35 KT

12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.2N 103.7W 40 KT

24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 103.9W 50 KT

36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.3N 104.5W 60 KT

48HR VT 20/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W 70 KT

72HR VT 21/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W 80 KT

96HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W 85 KT

120HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W 85 KT

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Edited October 19, 2007 by Somerset Squall

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Tropical Storm KIKO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Kiko is slowly winding up, now at 50kts in the latest advisory. It also looks like it will stay far enough away from land to have a pretty good chance of becoming a hurricane- this almost reminds me of the waiting game for Henriette to become a hurricane as it parralleled the Mexican coastline. Warm waters and low shear will provide the conditions for Kiko to become a hurricane, it just depends how well Kiko responds to this. It's certainly strengthening at the moment but convection has waned and flared over the past couple days, it needs sustained, deep convection to get any stronger. Tracks beyond day 3 are very uncertain due to model divergence, the only confident movement is northwestwards for the next couple days- the uncertainty is when Kiko will begin to move westwards if it does at all, and this will have bearings on how soon Kiko will reach cooler waters and stronger shear which will ultimately be it's demise.

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007

200 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

UNTIL ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO...KIKO WAS NOT PRODUCING ALL THAT MUCH

DEEP CONVECTION...BUT A HEALTHY BURST HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED OVER THE

NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 45-55 KT...WITH OBJECTIVE

ESTIMATES FAVORING THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE. GIVEN THE INCREASE

IN CONVECTION SINCE THEN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED

SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR

STRENGTHENING...AND ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE

FORECASTS KIKO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING

FOR KIKO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS GIVEN THE WEAK

WIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM SSTS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY PEAKS AT 75

KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DECLINE THEREAFTER AS SHEAR

INCREASES AND SSTS EVENTUALLY COOL BENEATH THE CYCLONE.

KIKO CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 305/4...TO THE SOUTH OF

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY

ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ERODE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A

DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED

STATES. ALL OF THE MODELS EVENTUALLY SHOW THAT SYSTEM PROCEEDING

EASTWARD...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO

AND CALIFORNIA IN A FEW DAYS. IN RESPONSE TO THAT PATTERN

CHANGE...THE MODELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DIVERGENT BEYOND ABOUT 36

HOURS. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE

BUT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT ON THE LATEST RUN...TAKING

KIKO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN

48-72 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE

OF THE MODEL SPREAD...SHOWING A WESTWARD TURN WELL SOUTH OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT FOR ME TO

ANTICIPATE A WESTWARD TURN THAT SOON...GIVEN THAT KIKO SHOULD BE A

DEEP SYSTEM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO ITS

NORTH UNTIL ABOUT BEYOND 48 HOURS FROM NOW. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION AND IS A BIT

FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STARTING ON DAY

2...BUT IT STILL CALLS FOR KIKO TO TURN WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE

SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT

THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MODEL

SPREAD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 17.7N 106.1W 50 KT

12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.3N 106.8W 55 KT

24HR VT 21/0600Z 19.1N 107.5W 65 KT

36HR VT 21/1800Z 19.9N 108.2W 70 KT

48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.7N 108.9W 75 KT

72HR VT 23/0600Z 21.7N 110.7W 65 KT

96HR VT 24/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W 50 KT

120HR VT 25/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W 40 KT

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Edited October 20, 2007 by Somerset Squall

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Tropical Storm KIKO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours