MET OFFICE WINTER FORECAST 23rd OCT

[jemtom]

Here it is... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...07_8/index.html

[Cat 5]

Thanks for that.

I find the following statement very frustrating.

"temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced in the very mild winter last year"

Talk about cover your back...!

[jemtom]

Thanks for that.

I find the following statement very frustrating.

"temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced in the very mild winter last year"

Talk about cover your back...!

Yep, but that's about as bold a statement as you are likely to get from the MO regarding this type of thing. This is not about getting the forecast right, so much as not getting it wrong, so the best way to ensure that is to stick with what is 99% safe.

It's no different than saying, "this Winter will see some cold spells, but it will not be as cold as 1962/63"

A play on words basically, but the overriding point is that this Winter is expected to be rather mild or mild, with any colder spells being more likely both early and late.

Edited October 23, 2007 by jemtom

[Paul]

Thanks for that.

I find the following statement very frustrating.

"temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced in the very mild winter last year"

Talk about cover your back...!

I'm confused, why do you see this as covering your back? Last year was one of the mildest winters ever, they're saying it's not going to be that mild but is still likely to be above average, where's the issue with them saying that?

[jemtom]

I'm confused, why do you see this as covering your back? Last year was one of the mildest winters ever, they're saying it's not going to be that mild but is still likely to be above average, where's the issue with them saying that?

That's a fair point Paul - I think 90% of people reading that forecast will not have a good grasp of, or have any major interest in weather, so putting up figures and stats would probably only serve to confuse.

By saying it will not be as mild as last Winter does at least give the lay person a starting point to refer to, but as I said there are many such statements that could be consided in a similar way.

[Paul]

It's a very open ended forecast, and if it were a forecast for next week I think it would be fair to be pretty unimpressed, but as it's a lrf for a period which ends in 4 months time it's unfair to expect anything other than some uncertainty. In fact if the forecast showed some exact figures and gave a more 'definite' view, people would probably (and rightly imo) criticise it for being unrealistic in its certainty.

[Cat 5]

I'm confused, why do you see this as covering your back? Last year was one of the mildest winters ever, they're saying it's not going to be that mild but is still likely to be above average, where's the issue with them saying that?

I am just saying that it is an obvious statement to make. We had a very mild winter last year, i assume it does not take a rocket scientist to 'predict' this winter is likley to be cooler!

It is like saying that next year is likley to see less rain during June and July than this year. Yes, of course it is not likley to be as much rain but they are covering themselves by saying "Likley" - so if we end up getting more rain next summer they are not wrong by what they are saying now. i.e we did not say it will not happen but it was just not likley.

Am I waffling...!?

[jemtom]

I am just saying that it is an obvious statement to make. We had a very mild winter last year, i assume it does not take a rocket scientist to 'predict' this winter is likley to be cooler!

It is like saying that next year is likley to see less rain during June and July than this year. Yes, of course it is not likley to be as much rain but they are covering themselves by saying "Likley" - so if we end up getting more rain next summer they are not wrong by what they are saying now. i.e we did not say it will not happen but it was just not likley.

Am I waffling...!?

Yes inanely... :lol: But I agree with your basic premise.

Here's another one for you which I guarantee will be right. "There will be some snow this Winter, but not as much as in 46/47...

I'll get my coat...

[Cat 5]

"There will be some snow this Winter, but not likley to be as much as in 46/47...

I would add a couple of words here.

Taxi.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Doesn't surprise me at all - it's the safe bet! Fairly mild but not as ridiculously mild as last winter. December again will probably the coldest of the 3 months. Can't see if we will see a very cold winter again in my lifetime.

[jemtom]

I would add a couple of words here.

Taxi.

LOL-Good point Cat 5...

[Don]

The forecast is exactly what I expected. This Winter is unlikely to be any great shakes, but may provide some interest at times. Could be likely that December will be the coldest month of Winter like it was often during the 90's.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

and in the naughties too! Strange that in the 70's and 80's it was one of the milder winter months!

[Cat 5]

Can't see if we will see a very cold winter again in my lifetime.

I hope you are in your mid ninties...! Either that or enjoy drinking white spirit

[south_holland_uk]

Is anyone else having problems decoding any definate (or at least near) answers???

[BARRY]

How many millions did that computer cost , just to tell us the same as they always do,the only difference is that it depends on how high the fence is that they are sitting on is.

[johnholmes]

daer oh dear here we go again.

[grab my graupel]

Yes I agree with Paul and Jemtom here , there is very little

else that the Meto could have said to be honest, and I am not suprised

to see this at all and almost expected a forecast like this.

The Meto were pretty good with there last winter forecast and I think they

will come very near the mark this time too.

[Cat 5]

daer oh dear here we go again.

Care to elaborate Mr Holmes?

[kold weather]

Seems a pretty likely forecast IMO, nothing really to suggest going against that, milder then average (which nearly every winter since 95-96 has been!) but not as madly mild as last year, precip signals simply aren't strong enough to get a conclusive forecast with.

[johnholmes]

yes, it was really in answer to this post

How many millions did that computer cost , just to tell us the same as they always do,the only difference is that it depends on how high the fence is that they are sitting on is.

I support the Met O when I think they are being unfairly treated and I disagree with them when I think their forecasts leave something to be desired.

This is one of support.

My views on LRF's by them or anyone else are well known and I am not being drawn into heated discussions about what anyone 'thinks' they should say.

Read the print very closely as you would with a guarantee and make sure you understand exactly what they have posted, along with their explanations of how they came to say what they have.

[Terminal Moraine]

How many millions did that computer cost , just to tell us the same as they always do,the only difference is that it depends on how high the fence is that they are sitting on is.

But, Barry, they're not going to tell us something they don't believe will happen no matter how much we all want it to be cold and snowy. Also they're not going to come up with a forecast which says it will be cold during the second week in January or the first week in February etc etc because it's impossible to tell when any specific type of weather will occur at this range.

The criteria to bear in mind are that, at this distance the forecast is likely to be about 60% accurate so there's a reasonable margin of error in which anything could happen and also, reading between the lines, even if the forecast is 90% accurate there's a good chance of some cold spells mixed in with the usual stuff which are likely to produce some snow at some point; there have been many winters which have been milder than the long term average without being snowless.

It's highly unlikely, 2 months away from the beginning of a season and 5 months from the end of it, that the Met' Office will ever come up with a forecast of either severe cold or exceptional heat because such conditions rely on a large number of factors falling into place at the right time, usually at relatively short notice.

These forecasts are only a generalised overview of what appears to be most probable given the information at the time.

Keep watching the updates and keep hoping.

T.M

[mcweather]

yes, it was really in answer to this post

How many millions did that computer cost , just to tell us the same as they always do,the only difference is that it depends on how high the fence is that they are sitting on is.

I support the Met O when I think they are being unfairly treated and I disagree with them when I think their forecasts leave something to be desired.

This is one of support.

My views on LRF's by them or anyone else are well known and I am not being drawn into heated discussions about what anyone 'thinks' they should say.

Read the print very closely as you would with a guarantee and make sure you understand exactly what they have posted, along with their explanations of how they came to say what they have.

Thats a very fair point well made John particularly the point about reading the print very closely. I always find this little gem in the forecast uncertainties section very interesting.

''Random, unpredictable factors ('chaos') also partly determine year-to-year variations, and these will sometimes override large-scale influences.''

If I didn't hold the Meto in high regard like yourself I'd almost think this was what the rest of us might call a get out of jail free card.

[Don]

Well, I don't see anything wrong with the Met Office long range forecast either. You can't go any further at this stage than mere probabilities and I think that it will be many years if ever that we will. They accurately predicted the last two Winter's and I think they'll do well with this one too, although I hope it will be colder than they expect!

:lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Last year the Met Office were fairly vague because they had one set of evidence pointing to a cold winter, and one set pointing to a very mild winter; the latter turned out to be correct. The Met Office can only rely upon what they have at their disposal, and if there aren't any clear signals coming out, they will understandably have trouble arriving at anything particularly concrete for the forecast.

I can be critical of the MetO at times as well, but like John, I am certainly on their side on this one. After all, if they commit to something specific, and get it horribly wrong, they could end up with all kinds of trouble off the insurance companies, media, etc.