Netweather winter forecast

[jemtom]

Well you can keep your AO's BO's AGHSO's and ENSO's, likewise your QBO's, Arctic Ice packs and IKEA flatpacks... :lol:

On a serious note there is definately a case for having to much info these days, which can and often does influence the best long range forecasting tools of all.... gut feeling and experience.

My gut feeling and experience favours another mild or even very mild Winter, with drier than average conditions across England and Wales.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well you can keep your AO's BO's AGHSO's and ENSO's, likewise your QBO's, Arctic Ice packs and IKEA flatpacks... :lol:

On a serious note there is definately a case for having to much info these days, which can and often does influence the best long range forecasting tools of all.... gut feeling and experience.

My gut feeling and experience favours another mild or even very mild Winter, with drier than average conditions across England and Wales.

Chuck some CET estimations and you have a complete LRF.....good luck with your punt

BFTP

[jemtom]

Chuck some CET estimations and you have a complete LRF.....good luck with your punt

BFTP

Cheers mate, need to add though that is my prediction, not my wish list. Actually hope I'm totally wrong.. :lol:

[Gavin P]

Interesting forecast. :lol: This La Nina is going to cause all LRF'ers a major headache, I think. My advice would be to leave all LRF's until November 30th or even into early December.

[Don]

The Netweather winter forecast is now online (first issue - updates will follow throughout the winter)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

A new winter discussion feature has also been bought online, with Brickfielders current thinking the first article to be added:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...iscussion;sess=

Just out of interest, Paul. In the forecast where the differences for temperature and precipitation are, there is now less detail than what there was last month. This isn't a criticism in any way, just interested to know why this part has changed slightly? I know the full detail is available in NW Extra.

:lol:

[Paul]

Hi Don, we took off some of the detail as the use of the rolling averages was confusing a lot of people, the full detail is still available in extra and that system is updated every week as well :lol:

[lightnin]

Is this temperature of around 15c average or above for this time of year?

[summer blizzard]

Is this temperature of around 15c average or above for this time of year?

Average maxima for end of October is 14-16, minima is 4-6.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The long-term average max at this time of year is in the area of 10-12C, so 15C is above average.

[kippure]

FWIW, shocker, but a few westerly QBOs in there and AO years taken at the height of the positive oscillation.

Roughly what does this chart mean?

[BrickFielder]

I think we may be in danger of labelling something incorrectly here with talk of the 'Azores' ridge. If Brickfielder is predicting an Azores ridge, I would imagine he will be favouring a slightly +ve AO overall and I would be interested on is take there, particularly so given the likely declining easterly QBO.

I am looking at the same la nina re-analysis charts as you but with perhaps a different eye. What it shows to me is a tendency for a deep trough over the central US . What it also show is slightly higher presurre across eastern Canada. Traditionally Canada would see high pressure during winter so I take this to mean that there is a signal for high pressure over eastern Canada as opposed to western or central Canada. The band of expected higher pressure shown to the west of the UK I think shows that the traditional storm path across the north atlantic is shifted south. Low pressure systems that would cross between Iceland and Scotland would tend to cross the UK (wet windy maybe but also a jet stream displaced south). I Don't therefore think an Azores ridge is likely but at times high pressure may be displaced to the west of the UK. What the re-analysis and la nina trends are poor at showing is that different patterns are likely depending on whether the Asian monsoon and IOD are in harmony with la nina or not. La nina also looks to strengthen heights toward siberia while lowering them across the near continent which I think shows less chance of an easterly and possibly the suggestion of a trough over equope. Both la nina and the easterly QBO will be declining during the winter I think.

Just a quick note though that I have failed to get any long range winter forecast correct over the last few years so any reader should bear that in mind and take it as entertaining read rather than fact.

[Don]

Hi Don, we took off some of the detail as the use of the rolling averages was confusing a lot of people, the full detail is still available in extra and that system is updated every week as well

Thanks for that Paul.

[Timmytour]

This winter is going to a lot colder than the winters of late and will even invite some comparisons with the winter of 1962/63 .

I'm sure there are some sound scientific and statistical reasoning behind the models used by the NW team, but there's two very important things not being considered by the machines producing those models..

1. After a prolonged period of the earth warming, it is, or will very soon, head in the opposite direction. And, especially those regions to the north and east of us which will play a big part in our winter this year, we will see the effect that's akin to warm water freezing before cold water does.

2. Gut feel. It feels like we've had a normal summer this year. It feels like we are having a normal autumn. It feels like the seasons are falling back into place as they should be and it feels like winter is going to assert its traditional role.

There. That's all the science I have :lol:

But I'm sure, come the 8th/9th December when the UK experiences its first widespread bout of snow and prolonged freezing weather, it won't take the models too much longer to catch onto my drift, if they haven't already!

Brace yourselves...it's going to get cold, it's going to get messy, and you won't believe what's going to happen regarding the supply of heating and electricity this winter!!!

:o

[Devon-Nelly]

I was just wondering, does La Nina ever follow El Nino in terms of how quick it waxes and wanes? If so La Nins could wane as quick as El Nino.

[BrickFielder]

I was just wondering, does La Nina ever follow El Nino in terms of how quick it waxes and wanes? If so La Nins could wane as quick as El Nino.

We have La Nina at the moment and it would take a few months for it to even move back to neutral so we should not expect any El Nino conditions till Spring at the earliest. Both conditions can last for a year or more but in this case the La Nina looks to wane awy over the next 6 months.