Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Hurricane Noel


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH

    ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL

    DEPRESSION...WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST

    OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY

    ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...WHILE QUIKSCAT

    DATA SHOWED NO RELIABLE WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT. BASED ON

    THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/6. THE LARGE

    CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A

    LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL

    LOW OVER HAITI AND SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

    AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE

    ATLANTIC RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL

    SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY

    96-120 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH A

    RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. THE UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA

    BY 120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS FORECASTS IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN

    GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE

    CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72-96 HR...THEN EITHER RECURVE OR

    RE-FORM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE GFDL AND THE

    HWRF CALL FOR A TRACK ACROSS HAITI AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE

    ATLANTIC. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE

    GFS...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS SHOWING THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL

    AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BY 96-120 HR DUE TO SHEAR. THE TRACK

    FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THIS SPREAD...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD

    MOTION THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY A SLOW RECURVATURE INTO THE

    WESTERLIES. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

    THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND VERTICAL

    WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING

    THE FIRST 36 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILD A

    LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT COULD

    PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...IF THE

    CYCLONE IS UNDER IT RATHER THAN NORTH OF IT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

    THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE OVER THE ATLANTIC

    DESPITE STRONG SHEAR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSITY

    FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR...BELOW

    THAT OF THE SHIPS...GFDL..AND HWRF. AFTER 72 HR...LITTLE CHANGE IN

    STRENGTH IS FORECAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND

    INCREASING SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

    BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL

    UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 28/0300Z 15.9N 71.5W 30 KT

    12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.6N 72.6W 35 KT

    24HR VT 29/0000Z 17.7N 74.2W 40 KT

    36HR VT 29/1200Z 18.8N 76.0W 45 KT

    48HR VT 30/0000Z 19.6N 77.6W 50 KT

    72HR VT 31/0000Z 21.0N 80.0W 60 KT

    96HR VT 01/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND

    120HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 78.5W 60 KT

    A track over Cuba is favoured by the global models but not the tropical models which keep him further eastwards with more speed, intensification will depend on the track. Other factors will include the land interaction over Cuba if this is an issue and a chance it might hit Miami.

    All in all this will certainly make a TS and stand a reasonable chance if reaching Hurricane status.

    Some potent and extreme convective bursts firing off now.

    Matt

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 23
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    just checked its parth on my eye of the storm program it looks like its heading for the bahamas

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    A late season system but its heading towards an area that is utterly primed for late season systems such as this. If there is one place that can support a hurricane in November its the Caribbean with the heat content still pretty high.

    LLC has become harder to track now though without Vis.imagery we are dependant on the IR which makes seeing a weak LLC quite hard to find as your looking at the higher levels.

    The exact track is very uncertain right now as it just depends on whether a cold front digging down over the US can actually pick up and deflect this system or not and exactly when this happens. Whatever occurs with the track the system is only slowly moving and is giving some very heavy rain to some the major Antilles right now, already 5 have been confirmed dead by Td16 which sadly expected given the amount of rain that has/will fall (as convection is really deep)

    Its future strength is as normal going to be down to whether or not the shear eases up much more then it is presently and also exactly how quick it heads for the islands and how long it can remain in the high heat content water sof the Caribbean for. It may be the shear remains to high for decent development, or it could even be the case that the front doesn't lift the system up as much as expected and the system manages to keep on a WSW track for long enough. Not much chance of that but its an option and if thats the case it'll head into waters that have supporte dmajor hurricanes even in November!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Convection is looking very impressive and is located very near the centre. Banding is still lacking currently but I think that we may have a Tropical Storm soon. Although not a strong storm currently the depression is going to be very dangerous as it's path keeps it close to land.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007

    1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

    THE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME FAIRLY

    IMPRESSIVE...FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INFRARED CLOUD TOP

    TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COLD OVER A LARGE AREA...AND THERE IS EVEN A

    BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...GIVING THE SYSTEM A COMMA SHAPE. THE

    DEPRESSION CERTAINLY SEEMS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

    STORM...BUT THE AVAILABLE DATA AT THE MOMENT ARE INCONCLUSIVE AS TO

    WHETHER OR NOT THIS HAS YET OCCURRED. THE EASTERN EDGE OF A

    QUIKSCAT PASS FROM ABOUT 1115Z ONLY CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE

    CIRCULATION AND DID NOT RETRIEVE ANY RELIABLE WINDS OF TROPICAL

    STORM FORCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 06Z

    AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART SHORTLY TO

    INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION AND GIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON THE

    INTENSITY.

    THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-

    TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALL OF THE MODELS

    FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS

    A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND

    HEIGHTS RISE FARTHER TO THE EAST. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...IN

    PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND HWRF...RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN CHANGE BY

    FORECASTING A RELATIVELY QUICK RECURVATURE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN VIA

    EASTERN CUBA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...HOWEVER...FORECAST A

    SLOWER MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND KEEP THE

    CYCLONE SOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK

    FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT AT

    A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS.

    THE HUGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST ALSO TRANSLATE INTO A

    VERY CHALLENGING INTENSITY PROGNOSIS. IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK WERE

    TO VERIFY PERFECTLY...THE CIRCULATION CENTER WOULD REMAIN OVER

    WATER FOR ABOUT FOUR MORE DAYS BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. SINCE THE

    UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO

    DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO...THE RESULTING DECREASE IN WIND

    SHEAR WOULD PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. IF...HOWEVER...

    THE CYCLONE GOES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...LAND INTERACTION WOULD

    OCCUR SOONER AND PERHAPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD AND COULD LIMIT

    STRENGTHENING. FINALLY...A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST COULD

    PLACE THE CYCLONE WITHIN A WEAKER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW FOR

    MORE STRENGTHENING THAN FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE DOES RECURVE

    TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS...THE UPPER-LEVEL

    WESTERLIES NORTH OF CUBA ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE

    STRONG AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AT LEAST

    NOT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST

    PEAKS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS

    BETWEEN THE LGEM AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS...AND MUCH LESS THAN THE GFDL

    AND HWRF FORECASTS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.5N 72.5W 30 KT

    12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.0N 73.4W 35 KT

    24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 40 KT

    36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 76.5W 45 KT

    48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 50 KT

    72HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W 55 KT

    96HR VT 01/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W 50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA

    120HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 78.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER

    $$

    FORECASTER KNABB

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yeah not relaly surprising uts been upgraded, looks very good with pressure dropping away quite readily, now down to 997mbs according to the recon today. The highest winds found by recon suggested current winds of between 45-50mph tohugh it appears that the NHC have gone for the higher total of 50mph.

    The real difficult time for the NHC begins now. Its currently rather close to the large mountions in South.DR and if it gets too close it could cause the system a lot of problems. It'd only require a little jog to the north to put the track inline with those mountions. However it looks like shear has eased off quite a lot and it could well be the case thatthe system is developing fairly rapidly right now with quite obvious CDO and banding occuring. Don't be surprised if it hits land, either W.DR or E.Cuba as a hurricane given the structure it currently has and also the pretty impressive heat content that is still present.

    right now how much of a threat it is to the Bahamas will depend on both how willing the shear is to ease off to the north, how strong it is when it hits land and also how long it spends over land.

    Will be interesting to watch this one develop, its close to a good place for late season hurricanes.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    The TS looks like it could dump alot of rain over Domincan Rep./Haiti and Ern Cuba over the next few days - and may bring some rather nasty flooding there. Not sure it will survive long as a TS if it heads North-West towards the Bahamas as an unfavourably sheared environment exists towards Florida and also evidence of an upper troughing dropping down over SE US, ideally we need to see this replaced by ridging aloft and less shear if this TS stands any chance.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I'm not so sure the set-up is actually as bad as what its being made out to be to the north of the greater Antilles, quite a few models strengthen noel after its crossed land and depending on exactly where the jet is I wouldn't be too surrpised if indeed the shear actually aided Noel's outflow as it heads towards the Bahamas and if its a reasonable TS that may just be what is needed to beocme a hurricane.

    Infact ther eis a chance that if the system slows its foward speed down it could get close to hurricane status before landfall, I'm expecting a 65-70mph TS but given its already at 60mph it wouldn't take more then 6hrs of lesser shear to get the sor tof organisation required to get those sorts of winds given the heat content presently is primed for explosive convection.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The latest advisory from the NHC reflects what you say KW, it no longer shows weakening or indeed extratropical transistion when it gets as far north as the Bahamas (if it does of course), which is what was being forecasted in earlier advisories.

    TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007

    500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

    EARLIER TODAY THE CIRCULATION CENTER REFORMED CLOSER TO THE DEEP

    CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED...AS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM

    AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE POSITION FIXES FROM THE

    AIRCRAFT HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS

    ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/4. THE

    ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT BASED ON SFMR AND

    FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED

    TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF

    HISPANIOLA...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND

    SOUTH WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS MOSTLY CONVECTION-FREE.

    FOLLOWING THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE

    HAS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HWRF AND GFDL WHICH STILL

    PROVIDE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A

    NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

    OF DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS

    AND SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO

    THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS THE MODELS

    DIVERGE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

    JOG NEAR OR OVER CUBA...WHILE GFDL AND HWRF HEAD NORTHWARD. THE

    NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS NUDGED TO

    THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS/SPECIAL ADVISORY.

    EVEN THOUGH NOEL HAS NOTABLY STRENGTHENED TODAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR

    HOW MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. THE AMOUNT OF

    INTERACTION WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS IS STILL RATHER

    UNCERTAIN...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES

    STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOSTLY OVER WATER IF THE

    OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION

    THAT NOEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO PASSING OVER CUBA.

    THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED

    BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.

    PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS

    NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE

    THE WORD KNOLL.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.8N 71.9W 50 KT

    12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 72.8W 55 KT

    24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 74.0W 60 KT

    36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.2N 75.0W 60 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA

    48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.4N 75.8W 45 KT...OVER WATER

    72HR VT 31/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 50 KT

    96HR VT 01/1800Z 26.0N 75.0W 50 KT

    120HR VT 02/1800Z 29.0N 73.5W 50 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER KNABB

    What I find interesting is Noel's wobbling at the moment, which obviously makes track forecasting a little more uncertain- the track could well shift further westward as was originally anticipated: a case of wait and see.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland

    TS NOEL seems to have a lot of similarities to TS Alpha from 2005. Identical trajectory, almost the same date and similar strength.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    TS NOEL seems to have a lot of similarities to TS Alpha from 2005. Identical trajectory, almost the same date and similar strength.

    Indeed it has, nice comparison- the two storms are very similar. The only difference really being that Alpha was a tropical depression when it went in the vicinity of the Bahamas; and Noel is forecasted to be a tropical storm when this happens. But who knows? Noel may well not survive it's track over Haiti as well as predicted and it could follow the simialrities with Alpha until it's demise.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland

    It just makes me wonder though. Do past systems influence the forecast of the current ones? In this instance, the route predicted is identical to that of Alpha. However, Alpha was hugley affected by Wilma acting as a magnet.

    I wonder if, without this influence, NOEL may take a more Westerly route - maybe even brushing Eastern Florida?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Tropical Storm NOEL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the Bahamas

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Haiti

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    the Dominican Republic

    probability for TS is 95% currently

    the Turks & Caicos Islands

    probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

    Cuba

    probability for TS is 85% currently

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Noel is providing some really serious rainfall totals:

    NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20

    INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF

    30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE

    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN

    CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL

    RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO

    RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN

    HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS

    AND MUD SLIDES.

    30 inches- that's unimaginable! :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Noel seems intent on a westward track at the moment and his centre is forecasted to remain over inland Cuba until tommorrow. I think in future Noel will not get much stronger (if at all) than it's earlier peak because it will have more reorganising to do after it emerges from the north coast of Cuba, the longer this takes, the weaker Noel will be when it does finally emerge over water.

    Interestingly, Noel seems like it will become a very potent storm when it enters it's extratropical phase- could it be heading to the UK??

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland

    This time last year I was on holiday at cayo coco, Cuba. Exactly where Noel is today. Could spoil some peoples holiday - or make it for others!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Tropical Storm NOEL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Cuba

    probability for TS is 100% currently

    the Bahamas

    probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

    Canada

    probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours

    St. Pierre and Miquelon

    probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Noel is looking more impressive today. It's barely moved which may give it more time to strengthen before it is blasted northeastwards whilst turning extratropical. Convection is looking very deep and has become more re-involved with the centre. I don't think Noel will become a hurricane but it may get close- 60kts at strongest perhaps?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yes indeed Noel does look fairly healthy right now. The system is now heading NNE and this alone probably is responsible for the better looking Noel right now. Let me explain what I mean. Ther eis some NNE shear presently and while the system was heading westward this mid-level shear was constantly decoupling the center of this system from its mid and low level circulations. However now the whole systyem is moving NNE the system has become better stacked as the relative shear is now reduced and combined with that the jet appears to have shunte doff to the north of the system which places Noel in a very fast moving NNE flow with its outflow being aided by the strong jet, which could lead to some further strengthening.

    An example of such a system that got such help was Ernesto which went from a TD/weak TS to a 60kt TS in about 12-18hrs last year when it took a turn which reduced relative shear.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    91 dead so far according to MSN. Deadliest storm in the area since Hurricane Jeanne and second deadliest storm this year, behind Felix. Both will be retired I would imagine.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21526342/

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    He is now a Hurricane

    Hurricane NOEL Forecast Discussion

    AT ABOUT 05Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

    REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KT JUST WEST OF THE CENTER BY

    DROPSONDE AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE

    AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...AND 700 MB

    FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 89 KT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE

    INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT BASED ON THIS DATA.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/16. NOEL IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A STRONG

    SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER

    TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE

    FORECASTS THIS PATTERN TO CAUSE THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE WITH

    SOME ACCELERATION...BRINGING NOEL NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT

    48 HR. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THEREAFTER

    UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES AT VERY HIGH LATITUDES.

    NOEL IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN

    26C...AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM. THIS SUGGESTS

    THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT STRENGTHEN ANY MORE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

    NOEL SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AND

    COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HR. IT IS FORECAST TO

    MAINTAIN HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS DURING THE TRANSITION...AND THE

    INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 24-48 HR IN

    AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS

    FORECAST NOEL TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR...AND

    THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047...QUIKSCAT DATA...AND

    AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER

    IN SIZE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT REVISION TO

    BOTH THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 02/0900Z 28.4N 75.2W 70 KT

    12HR VT 02/1800Z 31.2N 73.6W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

    24HR VT 03/0600Z 35.4N 71.2W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

    36HR VT 03/1800Z 40.0N 68.7W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

    48HR VT 04/0600Z 44.9N 65.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND

    72HR VT 05/0600Z 56.0N 56.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

    96HR VT 06/0600Z 64.5N 50.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND

    120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Well it seems to be nudging out of harms way now. You have to wonder how it's remnants will interact with our H.P. later on or whether Peirs may have a viscious L.P. to claim if it batters us in a week or so?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    It is now projected to be a very strong extratropical low crossing Nova Scotia on Sunday, could have sustained winds of 70-80 mph and gusts to 100 mph with it, and landfall now projected to be west of Halifax so the city of Halifax could be affected by these very strong winds as with Juan in 2003. Stay tuned, but no chance of affecting the UK directly, it is heading for western Greenland in four or five days time.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Hurricane NOEL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Canada

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

    the United States

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours

    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2022-08-14 08:51:18 Valid: 14/08/2022 0600 - 15/08/2022 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 14TH JULY 2022 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Peak of the heatwave today but the end is in sight with some welcome rain

      Heatwave will reach its peak today, with temperatures perhaps reaching 37C in southern England. Hot again Sunday before heat eases and threat of thundery downpours increases as we head through early next week, cooler for all by mid-week. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Heat, drought, storms and run-off

      The hot weather continues into the weekend, but from Sunday onwards, there's also going to be the threat of torrential downpours and thunderstorms. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...