Hurricane Noel

[Iceberg]

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH

ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION...WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST

OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...WHILE QUIKSCAT

DATA SHOWED NO RELIABLE WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT. BASED ON

THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/6. THE LARGE

CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A

LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL

LOW OVER HAITI AND SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE

ATLANTIC RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY

96-120 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH A

RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. THE UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA

BY 120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS FORECASTS IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN

GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE

CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72-96 HR...THEN EITHER RECURVE OR

RE-FORM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE GFDL AND THE

HWRF CALL FOR A TRACK ACROSS HAITI AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE

ATLANTIC. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE

GFS...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS SHOWING THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL

AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BY 96-120 HR DUE TO SHEAR. THE TRACK

FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THIS SPREAD...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD

MOTION THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY A SLOW RECURVATURE INTO THE

WESTERLIES. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING

THE FIRST 36 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILD A

LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT COULD

PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...IF THE

CYCLONE IS UNDER IT RATHER THAN NORTH OF IT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE OVER THE ATLANTIC

DESPITE STRONG SHEAR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSITY

FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR...BELOW

THAT OF THE SHIPS...GFDL..AND HWRF. AFTER 72 HR...LITTLE CHANGE IN

STRENGTH IS FORECAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND

INCREASING SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL

UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 15.9N 71.5W 30 KT

12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.6N 72.6W 35 KT

24HR VT 29/0000Z 17.7N 74.2W 40 KT

36HR VT 29/1200Z 18.8N 76.0W 45 KT

48HR VT 30/0000Z 19.6N 77.6W 50 KT

72HR VT 31/0000Z 21.0N 80.0W 60 KT

96HR VT 01/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 78.5W 60 KT

A track over Cuba is favoured by the global models but not the tropical models which keep him further eastwards with more speed, intensification will depend on the track. Other factors will include the land interaction over Cuba if this is an issue and a chance it might hit Miami.

All in all this will certainly make a TS and stand a reasonable chance if reaching Hurricane status.

Some potent and extreme convective bursts firing off now.

Matt

[tinybill]

just checked its parth on my eye of the storm program it looks like its heading for the bahamas

[kold weather]

A late season system but its heading towards an area that is utterly primed for late season systems such as this. If there is one place that can support a hurricane in November its the Caribbean with the heat content still pretty high.

LLC has become harder to track now though without Vis.imagery we are dependant on the IR which makes seeing a weak LLC quite hard to find as your looking at the higher levels.

The exact track is very uncertain right now as it just depends on whether a cold front digging down over the US can actually pick up and deflect this system or not and exactly when this happens. Whatever occurs with the track the system is only slowly moving and is giving some very heavy rain to some the major Antilles right now, already 5 have been confirmed dead by Td16 which sadly expected given the amount of rain that has/will fall (as convection is really deep)

Its future strength is as normal going to be down to whether or not the shear eases up much more then it is presently and also exactly how quick it heads for the islands and how long it can remain in the high heat content water sof the Caribbean for. It may be the shear remains to high for decent development, or it could even be the case that the front doesn't lift the system up as much as expected and the system manages to keep on a WSW track for long enough. Not much chance of that but its an option and if thats the case it'll head into waters that have supporte dmajor hurricanes even in November!

[Somerset Squall]

Convection is looking very impressive and is located very near the centre. Banding is still lacking currently but I think that we may have a Tropical Storm soon. Although not a strong storm currently the depression is going to be very dangerous as it's path keeps it close to land.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007

1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

THE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME FAIRLY

IMPRESSIVE...FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INFRARED CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COLD OVER A LARGE AREA...AND THERE IS EVEN A

BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...GIVING THE SYSTEM A COMMA SHAPE. THE

DEPRESSION CERTAINLY SEEMS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

STORM...BUT THE AVAILABLE DATA AT THE MOMENT ARE INCONCLUSIVE AS TO

WHETHER OR NOT THIS HAS YET OCCURRED. THE EASTERN EDGE OF A

QUIKSCAT PASS FROM ABOUT 1115Z ONLY CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE

CIRCULATION AND DID NOT RETRIEVE ANY RELIABLE WINDS OF TROPICAL

STORM FORCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 06Z

AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART SHORTLY TO

INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION AND GIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON THE

INTENSITY.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-

TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALL OF THE MODELS

FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND

HEIGHTS RISE FARTHER TO THE EAST. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...IN

PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND HWRF...RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN CHANGE BY

FORECASTING A RELATIVELY QUICK RECURVATURE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN VIA

EASTERN CUBA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...HOWEVER...FORECAST A

SLOWER MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND KEEP THE

CYCLONE SOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT AT

A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE HUGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST ALSO TRANSLATE INTO A

VERY CHALLENGING INTENSITY PROGNOSIS. IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK WERE

TO VERIFY PERFECTLY...THE CIRCULATION CENTER WOULD REMAIN OVER

WATER FOR ABOUT FOUR MORE DAYS BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. SINCE THE

UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO

DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO...THE RESULTING DECREASE IN WIND

SHEAR WOULD PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. IF...HOWEVER...

THE CYCLONE GOES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...LAND INTERACTION WOULD

OCCUR SOONER AND PERHAPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD AND COULD LIMIT

STRENGTHENING. FINALLY...A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST COULD

PLACE THE CYCLONE WITHIN A WEAKER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW FOR

MORE STRENGTHENING THAN FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE DOES RECURVE

TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS...THE UPPER-LEVEL

WESTERLIES NORTH OF CUBA ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE

STRONG AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AT LEAST

NOT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST

PEAKS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS

BETWEEN THE LGEM AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS...AND MUCH LESS THAN THE GFDL

AND HWRF FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.5N 72.5W 30 KT

12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.0N 73.4W 35 KT

24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 40 KT

36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 76.5W 45 KT

48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 50 KT

72HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W 55 KT

96HR VT 01/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W 50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA

120HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 78.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Edited October 28, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Paranoid]

If Noel does become a major hurricane it'll give the ACE a boost, currently it's below average at 60.7

[kold weather]

Yeah not relaly surprising uts been upgraded, looks very good with pressure dropping away quite readily, now down to 997mbs according to the recon today. The highest winds found by recon suggested current winds of between 45-50mph tohugh it appears that the NHC have gone for the higher total of 50mph.

The real difficult time for the NHC begins now. Its currently rather close to the large mountions in South.DR and if it gets too close it could cause the system a lot of problems. It'd only require a little jog to the north to put the track inline with those mountions. However it looks like shear has eased off quite a lot and it could well be the case thatthe system is developing fairly rapidly right now with quite obvious CDO and banding occuring. Don't be surprised if it hits land, either W.DR or E.Cuba as a hurricane given the structure it currently has and also the pretty impressive heat content that is still present.

right now how much of a threat it is to the Bahamas will depend on both how willing the shear is to ease off to the north, how strong it is when it hits land and also how long it spends over land.

Will be interesting to watch this one develop, its close to a good place for late season hurricanes.

[Nick F]

The TS looks like it could dump alot of rain over Domincan Rep./Haiti and Ern Cuba over the next few days - and may bring some rather nasty flooding there. Not sure it will survive long as a TS if it heads North-West towards the Bahamas as an unfavourably sheared environment exists towards Florida and also evidence of an upper troughing dropping down over SE US, ideally we need to see this replaced by ridging aloft and less shear if this TS stands any chance.

[kold weather]

I'm not so sure the set-up is actually as bad as what its being made out to be to the north of the greater Antilles, quite a few models strengthen noel after its crossed land and depending on exactly where the jet is I wouldn't be too surrpised if indeed the shear actually aided Noel's outflow as it heads towards the Bahamas and if its a reasonable TS that may just be what is needed to beocme a hurricane.

Infact ther eis a chance that if the system slows its foward speed down it could get close to hurricane status before landfall, I'm expecting a 65-70mph TS but given its already at 60mph it wouldn't take more then 6hrs of lesser shear to get the sor tof organisation required to get those sorts of winds given the heat content presently is primed for explosive convection.

[Somerset Squall]

The latest advisory from the NHC reflects what you say KW, it no longer shows weakening or indeed extratropical transistion when it gets as far north as the Bahamas (if it does of course), which is what was being forecasted in earlier advisories.

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007

500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

EARLIER TODAY THE CIRCULATION CENTER REFORMED CLOSER TO THE DEEP

CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED...AS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE POSITION FIXES FROM THE

AIRCRAFT HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS

ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/4. THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT BASED ON SFMR AND

FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED

TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF

HISPANIOLA...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND

SOUTH WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS MOSTLY CONVECTION-FREE.

FOLLOWING THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE

HAS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HWRF AND GFDL WHICH STILL

PROVIDE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A

NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS

AND SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO

THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS THE MODELS

DIVERGE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

JOG NEAR OR OVER CUBA...WHILE GFDL AND HWRF HEAD NORTHWARD. THE

NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS NUDGED TO

THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS/SPECIAL ADVISORY.

EVEN THOUGH NOEL HAS NOTABLY STRENGTHENED TODAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR

HOW MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. THE AMOUNT OF

INTERACTION WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS IS STILL RATHER

UNCERTAIN...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES

STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOSTLY OVER WATER IF THE

OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION

THAT NOEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO PASSING OVER CUBA.

THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED

BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS

NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE

THE WORD KNOLL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.8N 71.9W 50 KT

12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 72.8W 55 KT

24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 74.0W 60 KT

36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.2N 75.0W 60 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA

48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.4N 75.8W 45 KT...OVER WATER

72HR VT 31/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 50 KT

96HR VT 01/1800Z 26.0N 75.0W 50 KT

120HR VT 02/1800Z 29.0N 73.5W 50 KT

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

What I find interesting is Noel's wobbling at the moment, which obviously makes track forecasting a little more uncertain- the track could well shift further westward as was originally anticipated: a case of wait and see.

[Cat 5]

TS NOEL seems to have a lot of similarities to TS Alpha from 2005. Identical trajectory, almost the same date and similar strength.

[Somerset Squall]

TS NOEL seems to have a lot of similarities to TS Alpha from 2005. Identical trajectory, almost the same date and similar strength.

Indeed it has, nice comparison- the two storms are very similar. The only difference really being that Alpha was a tropical depression when it went in the vicinity of the Bahamas; and Noel is forecasted to be a tropical storm when this happens. But who knows? Noel may well not survive it's track over Haiti as well as predicted and it could follow the simialrities with Alpha until it's demise.

[Cat 5]

It just makes me wonder though. Do past systems influence the forecast of the current ones? In this instance, the route predicted is identical to that of Alpha. However, Alpha was hugley affected by Wilma acting as a magnet.

I wonder if, without this influence, NOEL may take a more Westerly route - maybe even brushing Eastern Florida?

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm NOEL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 100% currently

Haiti

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 95% currently

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Cuba

probability for TS is 85% currently

[Somerset Squall]

Noel is providing some really serious rainfall totals:

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20

INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF

30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN

CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO

RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN

HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS

AND MUD SLIDES.

30 inches- that's unimaginable!

[Somerset Squall]

Noel seems intent on a westward track at the moment and his centre is forecasted to remain over inland Cuba until tommorrow. I think in future Noel will not get much stronger (if at all) than it's earlier peak because it will have more reorganising to do after it emerges from the north coast of Cuba, the longer this takes, the weaker Noel will be when it does finally emerge over water.

Interestingly, Noel seems like it will become a very potent storm when it enters it's extratropical phase- could it be heading to the UK??

Edited October 30, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Cat 5]

This time last year I was on holiday at cayo coco, Cuba. Exactly where Noel is today. Could spoil some peoples holiday - or make it for others!

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm NOEL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Canada

probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours

St. Pierre and Miquelon

probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Noel is looking more impressive today. It's barely moved which may give it more time to strengthen before it is blasted northeastwards whilst turning extratropical. Convection is looking very deep and has become more re-involved with the centre. I don't think Noel will become a hurricane but it may get close- 60kts at strongest perhaps?

[kold weather]

Yes indeed Noel does look fairly healthy right now. The system is now heading NNE and this alone probably is responsible for the better looking Noel right now. Let me explain what I mean. Ther eis some NNE shear presently and while the system was heading westward this mid-level shear was constantly decoupling the center of this system from its mid and low level circulations. However now the whole systyem is moving NNE the system has become better stacked as the relative shear is now reduced and combined with that the jet appears to have shunte doff to the north of the system which places Noel in a very fast moving NNE flow with its outflow being aided by the strong jet, which could lead to some further strengthening.

An example of such a system that got such help was Ernesto which went from a TD/weak TS to a 60kt TS in about 12-18hrs last year when it took a turn which reduced relative shear.

[Somerset Squall]

91 dead so far according to MSN. Deadliest storm in the area since Hurricane Jeanne and second deadliest storm this year, behind Felix. Both will be retired I would imagine.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21526342/

[Iceberg]

He is now a Hurricane

Hurricane NOEL Forecast Discussion

AT ABOUT 05Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KT JUST WEST OF THE CENTER BY

DROPSONDE AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE

AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...AND 700 MB

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 89 KT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT BASED ON THIS DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/16. NOEL IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A STRONG

SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE

FORECASTS THIS PATTERN TO CAUSE THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE WITH

SOME ACCELERATION...BRINGING NOEL NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT

48 HR. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THEREAFTER

UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES AT VERY HIGH LATITUDES.

NOEL IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN

26C...AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM. THIS SUGGESTS

THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT STRENGTHEN ANY MORE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NOEL SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AND

COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HR. IT IS FORECAST TO

MAINTAIN HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS DURING THE TRANSITION...AND THE

INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 24-48 HR IN

AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS

FORECAST NOEL TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR...AND

THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047...QUIKSCAT DATA...AND

AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER

IN SIZE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT REVISION TO

BOTH THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 28.4N 75.2W 70 KT

12HR VT 02/1800Z 31.2N 73.6W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

24HR VT 03/0600Z 35.4N 71.2W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 03/1800Z 40.0N 68.7W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 04/0600Z 44.9N 65.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND

72HR VT 05/0600Z 56.0N 56.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 06/0600Z 64.5N 50.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND

120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Gray-Wolf]

Well it seems to be nudging out of harms way now. You have to wonder how it's remnants will interact with our H.P. later on or whether Peirs may have a viscious L.P. to claim if it batters us in a week or so?

[Roger J Smith]

It is now projected to be a very strong extratropical low crossing Nova Scotia on Sunday, could have sustained winds of 70-80 mph and gusts to 100 mph with it, and landfall now projected to be west of Halifax so the city of Halifax could be affected by these very strong winds as with Juan in 2003. Stay tuned, but no chance of affecting the UK directly, it is heading for western Greenland in four or five days time.

[Cookie]

Hurricane NOEL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours