SATSIGS

[Roo]

I'll have you know that my snowman was the biggest one i have ever made, it took me almost 4 hours of running about the garden catching snowflakes in a bucket!!!! Mind you, I did make one almost as big in the late 80's when i defrosted the freezer last!

:blush: :blush: Thing is, if you hadn't mentioned the wheelie bin, we'd all have been none the wiser and would have thought it was 6ft tall!!!

[cyclonic happiness]

:blush: :blush: Thing is, if you hadn't mentioned the wheelie bin, we'd all have been none the wiser and would have thought it was 6ft tall!!!

Well luckily I'm only 6" tall, so it was a whopper for me! And I'm happy to report that the snow I had last night was waist deep! I did struggle getting onto the wheelie bin to build the thing but for you guys, I thought I'd risk it! And I think you'll have to admit, the results were very impressive?

Edited November 19, 2007 by cyclonic happiness

[Roo]

Well luckily I'm only 6" tall, so it was a whopper for me! And I'm happy to report that the snow I had last night was waist deep! I did struggle getting onto the wheelie bin to build the thing but for you guys, I thought I'd risk it! And I think you'll have to admit, the results were very impressive? :blush:

Absolutely: a triumph of style over substance! Worthy of a level 2 Telfords alert, any day!

Edited November 19, 2007 by Roo

[The Enforcer]

And I'm happy to report that the snow I had last night was waist deep!

Well that does depend on whose waist - yours or the snowman's?

[Stratos Ferric]

SATSIGS RAMP ALERT 1

Slight ramp

A very quiet period for SATSIGS brought to an abrupt halt this evening by, of all sources, the BBC (I exclude Paul Hudson here by the way, whi singlehandedly accounts for around 95% of all BBC ramp output).

CEEFAX p401 - I was very bored!

Snow on the Pennines

[Optimus Prime]

After a number of weeks of record mild atlantic gumpth quieting down the SATSIGS HQ the GFS seemed to have picked up on this, putting us into a false sense of security before hitting us hard where it hurts most, FI phantom easterlys.

Already it's been picked up in the model thread, level headed thinking is futile and so a full rampede (almost) at such a short time span, with just one model run showing the works breaks all sorts of SATSIGS records.

The SATSIGS scale will almost certainly go off limits until the UKMO restores order with a sinking high into Bartlett territory.

[memories of 63]

After a number of weeks of record mild atlantic gumpth quieting down the SATSIGS HQ the GFS seemed to have picked up on this, putting us into a false sense of security before hitting us hard where it hurts most, FI phantom easterlys.

Already it's been picked up in the model thread, level headed thinking is futile and so a full rampede (almost) at such a short time span, with just one model run showing the works breaks all sorts of SATSIGS records.

The SATSIGS scale will almost certainly go off limits until the UKMO restores order with a sinking high into Bartlett territory.

Three runs now

Look at my sig. I knew it would happen one day. Off to stock up on dried foods and bottles water

[The Enforcer]

SATSIGS ALERT 1 - SLIGHT RAMP: Early calls for potential cold weather based on highly speculative and usually distant charts. E.g. "looks like we might get some frost later this week". Very weak ramps are usually caveated, and not snowflationary, though they are making slightly desperate grasps - not unusual during long spells of Atlantic dross. Also applies to slightly inflated extraplation of genuine prospects for snow. E.g. "looks like we might get a covering in London if we're lucky", when clearly the type of luck required would be that of the back-to-back lottery winner, or the person finding themselves waking up alongside Brad / Angelina (or both) in an accidental no clothes type situation. I know it's the stuff of the "National Enquirer" but so is some of the ramping we occasionally get.

Reason for Alert:

A - Persistant references to snowfall by the weekend from current High Pressure in spite of source being cold, dry, continental air from the south-east, alignment of High has yet to demonstrate realistic prospect of dragging in any meaningful direct flow from Siberia, no sign of any undercutting Low Pressure systems and the existence of 1030mb+ is apparently overlooked.

B - Mention of "permafrost" in certain densely populated Sacra districts.

Edited December 13, 2007 by The Enforcer

[memories of 63]

B - Mention of "permafrost" in certain densely populated Sacra districts.

The largest area of permafrost in the UK is around Grimsby

[acbrixton]

Sooner or later it had to happen: like cold air bottled up by an earlier recalcitrant Polar Vortex so too the eerie self-restraint of SACRA members has been swept aside by a handful of favourable charts in the furthest reaches of FI on the GFS 18z (aka 'the Pub Run', but only when showing zonality or Bartletts): heights rise over Greenland, a 'proper' GA is established with a ridge south eastwards and the PFJ heads south, the PV transfers to Scandinavia and a Pm airstream is thus 'set in stone' and snow is 'ensured' for all.

At present the rampometer suggests a warning of about 1.5 (i.e. slight to moderate) but there are already indications that conditions may rapidly deteriorate: already the UKMO in general and Mr Everton Fox in particular have been ritually and metaphorically eviscerated for the thought-crime of 'mild ramping'; wildly premature bouts of self-congratulation regarding the prescience of amateur forecaster's 'skills' have been noted; there is a worrying tendency too for an early development of dangerous 'Group Think'; gloating observations as to the December CET can only lead in time to more worrying speculation as to the Annual CET.

As these are early days the 'Abingdons' forecast is put, conservatively, at 1. That may, of course, change if FI charts continue to be favourable to increasingly severe ramping.

[Note: An 'Abingdon' is the international standard unit for predicting disappointment consequent upon unjustified ramping. On a scale of 1 to 5, 1 represents slight disappointment ('Well it only ever appeared at T360 on the Pub Run for a couple of days') whilst 5 indicates searing, excoriating and a seemingly endless and all-consuming misery reminiscent of Hell itself: "impal'd with circling fire, Yet unconsum'd".

regards

ACB

[Stoxs]

I am surprised it has been 8 days since this topic has beeen posted in .

well i have witnesssed many a Rampomatic this morning with

I think the classic ramp was 9mm of dry snow = 1 foot !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

lmao , blizzards and 4 day snow event all have bn mentioned and this is still a week away

[The Enforcer]

The above has been verified and requires quantifying:

SATSIGS ALERT 2 - MODERATE RAMP: Early calls for moderate extremes of weather, and near-event inflation of prospects. "Could be a big day for you next Wednesday, Dave" or "Looks like I'll be working from home the day after tomorrow" - the latter when all that's shown is a cool HP right over the UK.

[Stoxs]

LMAO

Great stuff just what winters in the U.k are for ,who needs white PPN when classic ramping of the models is around

[Stratos Ferric]

I am surprised it has been 8 days since this topic has beeen posted in .

well i have witnesssed many a Rampomatic this morning with

I think the classic ramp was 9mm of dry snow = 1 foot !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

lmao , blizzards and 4 day snow event all have bn mentioned and this is still a week away

Very much a symptom of the even larger teapot I'm afraid: even the ramping isn't what it used to be. The snowcreditsqueeze might yet have led to redundancies and part-time working at a less venerable institution than SATSIGs.

We are on alert to watch out particularly for frothing at the mouth over the next few days in the regard of diving lows and channel lows, and also battlegrounds across the Midlands: and we're not talking Naseby.

[mezzacyclone]

Excessive grebe crap on the bonnet of my car in recent days?

It's a sign you know when our doreen's digging out her rubber slip-on soles.

[paul tall]

My mother has got her "snow chest" again.

Plus in September we weren't deluged with Daddy Long Legs.

Everything has fallen into place.

Do I win a "Rampety Ramp Chequebook and Pen"?

[acbrixton]

My mother has got her "snow chest" again.

Plus in September we weren't deluged with Daddy Long Legs.

Everything has fallen into place.

Do I win a "Rampety Ramp Chequebook and Pen"?

I should think not. Your purported 'ramp' was merely ironic. A true ramp requires one of either three states of mind:

1. a rather touching credulousness;

2. an almost complete absence of an ability to exercise judgment or discrimination; or

3. the ability to engage in 'doublethink' (i.e. "To tell deliberate [terminological inexactitudes] while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just so long as it is needed, to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies..." [Nineteen Eighty-Four [secker @ Warburg (1939) p.35].

Despite the prescient words of SF at lunch time on 27th December, some of use were almost caught unawares by the suddenness and ferocity of Friday's ramping: even the most elementary of lessons learnt from the recent past is forgotten when there is wild talk of an easterly being 'nailed on the head' or 'set in stone'. Such hubris can only lead to a bitter nemesis replete with wormwood, gall and uncountable 'Abingdons'.

The mob have deposed reason and already seek to venerate the Devonshire renegade (now pretending to be the female half of a rather mediocre 'singing duo' from the 1960s). Sir Ian Brown is taunted and hunted down; Miss Prudence Stephen flees; Lord Holmes of Fylingdales dares not return to the Forum. It is only a matter of time before calls ring out to lynch the long-suffering and saintly Mr Everton Fox.

regards

ACB

[Stratos Ferric]

SATSIGs monitors are detecting the development of a wdie front of ramping from across the Irish Sea. There has always been a slight tendency for cold perturbations to emanate from a zone stretching from Dublin to Cork, but recent events and a decided lack of snow in these areas, whilst NI was bogged down in the stuff, might be leading to a degree of ferment in the Republic that might lead explosively to ramping over the next few days.

Be aware!

Last week's events actually had very little ramping attached, save for one or two SW'ly members and someone in Hull - though the latter was flapping madly between SATSIGS 4 and around 3.5 Abingdons. Sensors were almost coming off their spindles. There were very few Ludlows of exaggeration, and Glasgow was not effected significantly - there may or may not be a relationship between those last two points.

Edited January 5, 2008 by Stratos Ferric

[Polar Gael]

SF

Re. snow measurement, can you enlighten me as to what the "Glasgow centimetre" is? I noticed you mentioned this the other evening when were favoured with a dusting of snow in "the Weeg" whilst swathes of NI were "whumphed" with the white stuff.

Do we Weegies have to set up a northerly outpost to deal with said erroneous SI measurement(s) and distribute correctly calibrated rulers to the populace (or indeed teach them how to read said rulers)?

Am loving this year's SATSIGs btw. Seems to become more appropriate with each passing winter...

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

2 snow showers in the scottish highlands within the space of a week prompts rampers to proclaim;

"This is going to be the coldest January in years!"

[Polar Gael]

Oh, how I wish that were true.

Time to begin dishing out the virtual medicine to the McRampers, matron.

[Stratos Ferric]

SF

Re. snow measurement, can you enlighten me as to what the "Glasgow centimetre" is? I noticed you mentioned this the other evening when were favoured with a dusting of snow in "the Weeg" whilst swathes of NI were "whumphed" with the white stuff.

Do we Weegies have to set up a northerly outpost to deal with said erroneous SI measurement(s) and distribute correctly calibrated rulers to the populace (or indeed teach them how to read said rulers)?

Am loving this year's SATSIGs btw. Seems to become more appropriate with each passing winter...

I shall name no names, but the collective mind of SATSIGs goes back to one Glaswegian, of this parish, who in a recent winter proclaimed about 20cm of snow, and produced a picture to prove it on which there were tyre tracks on the road with a depth of perhaps 1cm, and level snow on the wall to a depth of around 1cm. A Glasgow cm is, therefore, roughly the same as a mm or so elsewhere, give or take a bit.

I suspect a snowfall has never been underestimated on N-W, in the same way that people seem to become very jealous and protective of the risk of snow for their own location. Not that those two are in any way related.

[Polar Gael]

We may have to lace the deep-fried foodstuffs with anti-ramping vaccine to prevent the occurence of future mis-measurements. That should sort it.

[acbrixton]

Note to SF: Advance Warning of Possible Severe Ramp Risk

Not wishing to be caught out as was the case 1 month ago I thought it best to point out the imminent risk of ramping, possibly prolonged and severe.

The GFS 12z run in the latter parts of FI (post T240) shows rising heights over Greenland, a 'true' Greenland anticyclone (the likes of which have not been seen these last 20 years: central pressure 1050-1060 mb) ridging south-eastwards, dam lines as low as 510 over Shetland, 850s at -5 to -10, arctic northerlies, a temporary frontal breakdown followed by north easterlies.

Matters could be worse: there is no Channel low.

After a prolonged period of what has been slightly fancifully called 'cold/cool zonality' we now face the risk of a furious surge of pent-up ramping and associated tortuous thought:

1. The support of as few as 4 other ensemble members will be enough to maintain the pattern;

2. If ECM/UKMO give any support later the ramping will intensify, but if not they will be ignored/rejected/despised (note the possibility of faux knowledgeable critiques of supposed inherent model biases as in "X is, of course, notorious for being too progressive/unable to handle northern blocking/defaults to mild zonality");

3. Expect some flagrant dishonesty as to the status of the 18z. If it follows the same path it will be lauded, if not it will be "binned" as the contemptible 'Pub Run';

4. In the medium term we can expect to see gobbets from JMA and Nogaps as proof that 'winter is back'.

There are clear risks too for AGW and 'even larger teapot' debates: Sod All The Science Its Gonna Snow. (If I was Ian Brown I would especially careful...).

We may expect the very worst should Miss Nina (the member formerly known as 'WIB') return in triumph from exile.

regards

ACB

[Stratos Ferric]

...

We may expect the very worst should Miss Nina (the member formerly known as 'WIB') return in triumph from exile.

regards

ACB

You will be suggesting a correlation between sightings of the lesser cold hearted WiB and purples mass on the GFS next!

I think that the general alert is a very sound caution. Ramping really is like a very pernicious illness: you think that the winter warmth has driven it away but see how it thrives on the slightest hint of something more (traditionally) seasonal.

Edited January 21, 2008 by Stratos Ferric