November forecasts

[Timbo]

1st-8th November:

Starting settled with near-slightly above temps,a few slight frosts possible if the skys remain clear for any period overnight.

As we move towards the end of this period the high pressure will start to move west-north west,this will then allow the first of many polar outbreaks to move south,this will produce wintry showers firstly for N/W regions later transfering to eastern coastal.

Frost will be fairly widespread overnight.

9th-15th November:

Cold and unsettled with wintry showers again possible, mainly in northern and eastern costal regions, these may transfer more inland as the wind swings more Easerly.

Towards the end of this period the first snow of the will start to show ,higher regions will see a covering and even low ground cannot be ruled out,again frost will be widespread overnight sometimes moderate.

16th-22nd November:

This period has a lot of uncertinty in my forecast???

I originaly thought that high pressure would remain to our N/E, but i now feel that the Atlantic will bring a short and less cold period with west to N/W winds.

Northern regions may still see some wintry outbreaks, temps will recover to near normal and frost will less widespread.

23rd-30th November:

This period will produce some of the most coldest and snowiest weather we have experienced in November for many years!!!!!!!!!!

High pressure will retrogess and link up with the Greenland H.P,low pressure will become situated over Europe this will open up the flood gates for a full onslaught of ARTIC AIRMASS.Many areas will see snowfall, Eastern/Northern will see the most with moderate to heavy falls possible

As the low pressure over Europe moves towards S/E England BLIZZARDS are possible causing disruption to East Anglia and the South East.

Frost will be widespread and often persistant all day.

(NOVEMBER C.E.T 4. :o

[The PIT]

Before reading GP's November thoughts I'll stick my two pennies worth.

November will overall be a dry quiet month. The only areas probably to see any real activity will be North and West of Scotland who will as expected see most of the rain and strong winds. Temperatures will be above normal but as too how much depends on where the high sits and whether it becomes a cloudy high or not. Ground frosts will be reserved for when the High pulls away slightly to North and West before it reasserts itself allowing milder air to flow over top.

The question is how long can the High sit around I suspect it'll finely get it's marching orders 2nd half of the month allowing a more mobile flow to come in from the Atlantic. This will be bring more average temps in spoiling the fun for the CET watchers. Most of the Activity being in the final week but too late to bring average rainfall to most of the UK. Scotland NI to have average rainfall.

[JOHN.MAC]

1st-8th November:

Hi timbo,what information are you basing your forcast on?

[Bottesford]

Just changed the thread title - anyone with a forecast be it an analytical master piece or a stab in the dark - this thread is all yours to have a go...

[johnholmes]

Hi timbo,what information are you basing your forcast on?

I'm afraid, meaning no disrespect, its called a hopecast

[MAF]

I'm afraid, meaning no disrespect, its called a hopecast

well i am hoping he's right John, although i am used to disappointment ini my life :lol:

[johnholmes]

come on with this kind of post?

'As the low pressure over Europe moves towards S/E England BLIZZARDS are possible causing disruption to East Anglia and the South East.

Frost will be widespread and often persistant all day.'

when did this last happen in the areas mentioned in winter let along November, and what basis is this being predicted on?

I'm happy for people to hopecast, we all dream of our winter favourites happening but its not quite fair when its produced as a forecast. Newcomers could be taken in by it, visitors might wonder what Net Wx is up to!

Weather forecasting is, believe it or not based on science. Please tell me what science went into the above.

[memories of 63]

come on with this kind of post?

'As the low pressure over Europe moves towards S/E England BLIZZARDS are possible causing disruption to East Anglia and the South East.

Frost will be widespread and often persistant all day.'

when did this last happen in the areas mentioned in winter let along November, and what basis is this being predicted on?

I'm happy for people to hopecast, we all dream of our winter favourites happening but its not quite fair when its produced as a forecast. Newcomers could be taken in by it, visitors might wonder what Net Wx is up to!

Weather forecasting is, believe it or not based on science. Please tell me what science went into the above.

John,

Can't disagree with anything you said about Timbo's fore(hope)cast however wrt to medium to long range forecasts being science based........

I understand that there are a mountain of data generated for each model run and very powerful computers are need to crunch the numbers BUT, surely the most relaiable forecasts (up to 5 days in most cases) are produced by human interpretation of the model predictions. This is why most serious members go for the fax charts, where there has been some human input.

As there needs to be informed human interpretation of the data, there must be some element of 'gut feel' (also called experience) in generating the fax charts. In my field, very different from meteorology, the development of good semi-solid formulations is still based on the experience of the formulator, even though there are a number of scientific tools and models to call upon. These activities are still referred to as the 'black art' and, for compounding Pharmacists, there's a reference database called secundum artem (loosly translated as following the art).

BTW, no disrespect to meteorology, I find it an endlessly fascinating subject - probably due to the element of chaos/catastrophy that contribute to our constantly chaging weather patterns.

[johnholmes]

I’ll try and give answers to the questions you raise from what knowledge I have.

Can't disagree with anything you said about Timbo's fore(hope)cast however wrt to medium to long range forecasts being science based........

I understand that there are a mountain of data generated for each model run and very powerful computers are need to crunch the numbers BUT, surely the most relaiable forecasts (up to 5 days in most cases) are produced by human interpretation of the model predictions. This is why most serious members go for the fax charts, where there has been some human input.

Yes that is the supposed perfect mix, man and computer, and yes out to 5 days is usually reasonably reliable but even here we sometimes go adrift.

As there needs to be informed human interpretation of the data, there must be some element of 'gut feel' (also called experience) in generating the fax charts. In my field, very different from meteorology, the development of good semi-solid formulations is still based on the experience of the formulator, even though there are a number of scientific tools and models to call upon. These activities are still referred to as the 'black art' and, for compounding Pharmacists, there's a reference database called secundum artem (loosly translated as following the art).

Again yes it needs several years of experience to allow one to build up a reservoir of knowledge of how the models cope in differing situations and ones experience, even ‘gut’ feeling, does come into it. Before the advent of computers and numerical forecasting then empirical forecasting was a cornerstone of forecasting. Quite a number of these rules were fed into computer models when they arrive, ideas like MOS(Model Output Statistics) are still used. Things like minimum/maximum temperatures from initial empirical forecasting refined by model outputs. Other areas also use similar features. Before computers became an every day tool of weather forecasting then 24 hours ahead using basic physics applied to the known laws of meteorology was about the most one could expect, possibly 48 hours in some situations. So things have changed quite a lot, with quite large improvements out to 5-7 days. I quote that beyond 10 days is unlikely to achieve any noticeable accuracy, and your quote of the chaos theory is a main reason. There are huge areas of meteorology we are still only just beginning to scratch the surface in before we can give 10 day accuracy to the level of 3-4 days. As to seasonal forecasts then again we/they are making positive strides(perhaps steps would be more appropriate) but that will again take a long time to get the accuracy needed to, for instance, get a 70-80% accuracy in, say, winter will be colder or milder than usual?

BTW, no disrespect to meteorology, I find it an endlessly fascinating subject - probably due to the element of chaos/catastrophy that contribute to our constantly chaging weather patterns.

No disrespect seen there mate, just a healthy questioning of the science of meteorology.

[MAF]

well i am hoping he's right John, although i am used to disappointment ini my life

come on with this kind of post?

'As the low pressure over Europe moves towards S/E England BLIZZARDS are possible causing disruption to East Anglia and the South East.

Frost will be widespread and often persistant all day.'

when did this last happen in the areas mentioned in winter let along November, and what basis is this being predicted on?

I'm happy for people to hopecast, we all dream of our winter favourites happening but its not quite fair when its produced as a forecast. Newcomers could be taken in by it, visitors might wonder what Net Wx is up to!

Weather forecasting is, believe it or not based on science. Please tell me what science went into the above.

my post ^ was made very tongue in cheek John, i agree with your question. When did the East S/East see those conditions during autumn/winter. well i can definitely say not in my lifetime. and probably not likely to either

[Bottesford]

This thread is a little more light hearted than the others so you're welcome to hopecast away in here but, of course a more scientific forecast is always preferred.

[Timbo]

come on with this kind of post?

'As the low pressure over Europe moves towards S/E England BLIZZARDS are possible causing disruption to East Anglia and the South East.

Frost will be widespread and often persistant all day.'

when did this last happen in the areas mentioned in winter let along November, and what basis is this being predicted on?

I'm happy for people to hopecast, we all dream of our winter favourites happening but its not quite fair when its produced as a forecast. Newcomers could be taken in by it, visitors might wonder what Net Wx is up to!

Weather forecasting is, believe it or not based on science. Please tell me what science went into the above.

I fully understand John that weather is a science, but not just science.A lot of my forecasting information is on past weather events and through history how weather has a pattern on repeating itself.You will agree with me that last month was very different to octobers we have been use to seeing with high pressure such a dominante feature.The second part of January91 had simular weather patterns and look what happened in eary Feb!!!!!!(a low pressure moved towards the S/E).I fully unerstand this is Nov and not mid winter, but i still feel come late November there will be enough cold to east of the british isles to deliver the above prediction

[BrickFielder]

Whilst the synoptic situation may have some similarities to previous years the state of sea surface temperatures is such that signiicant cooling needs to take place for it to snow in the UK during that period where winds come in from a westerly direction. It may just be cold enough for easterly winds to bring snow but easterly winds are normally quite dry.Northerly winds can produce snow but it tends to all pile up in scotland with not much further south. UK wide heavy snow fall tends to come in from the north west or sometimes the north east but rarely from the east except for some south eastern counties.

Good luck with the forecast and I guess if you live in Lowestoft then an easterly would be a good bet for some snow.

[Zenarcher]

weathermaster's forecast

Western Scotland: Becoming colder after the 8th of november and mostly high pressure but by the end of the month low pressure will push in bringing light snow and windy conditions.

Northern Scotland: Becoming colder after the 7th of november and mostly high pressure but by the end low pressure will push in bringing sleet and wind.

Eastern Scotland: Becoming colder after the 9th of november and mostly high pressure until the 18th low pressure will come in bringing wet and breezy conditions and maybe a chance of sleet.

Southern Scotland: Becoming colder on the 8th of november and mostly high pressure all through the month and will be mostly cloudy and more rain at the end of the month.

Summary For Scotland: High pressure for the first week and then low pressure at the end also becoming wet and windy and some places may see sleet or snow and temps around 5c and more of a chance of frost.

Northern England: High pressure for most of the month and mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.

Western England: High pressure for most of the month and mostly cloudy but near the end showers.

Southern England: Hight pressure for most of the month but near the end low pressure will come in also mostly cloudy with showers near the end.

Eastern Wales: High pressure will mostly be there but by 14th of november low pressure from the sout

h will push in and bring showers also it could get breezy.

Summary For England: Most area's will see high pressure but near the end of the month more showers and cloudy weather and temps around 6c and about the same amount of frost as last month but maybe a higher risk of f

rost on higher grounds.

Wales: High pressure until the 15th of november after that lower pressure and mostly cloudy and showers likely and also temps around 7c.

Summary For Wales: Mostly cloudy and with high pressure but when lower pressure comes in more showers also a small risk of frost.

Thanks for reading

weathermaster

[Mark Bayley]

Good forecast WM good luck with it

[Geordiesnow]

I am personally going for a pretty much more of the same weather for the first part of the month but we may see weak Northerlies thrown in from time to time. Nothing mild for the time of year.

Mid month onwards the Atlantic i feel will come back but with a more Southerly jet Northerlies and Easterlies are possible although Easterlies won't have much of a bite. around average for the time of year.

End of the month - and this is probably guess work the Atlantic could soon again become quiet with high pressure in charge near/over us - again near to average

[The PIT]

At least my wasn't called a hopecast.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

pure guess what i think (sorry about nothing scientific)

first 2 days dry and mild, then becoming slightly cooler from the 3rd-8th with a high out to the west, possible frost at night, 9th-12th northerly wind sunnier skies with snow in N scotland on high levels, 13th-30th zonal with SW or West winds and low pressure dominating and wind and rain (general zonal weather showers sun as well 11-15C south 7-11C north), the ugly atlantic coming back and no sn0w anywhere

[summer blizzard]

Hmmm...

Several takes on this month from me, with my two main forecasting methods at odds...

The one i use in the CET comp, calls for a CET of 7.9C, 1C above average, with a mainly mild month...

However, i also look at anologues, though i consider them more experimental, and thay call for a CET value of between 6.8C and 7.8C (7.3C, 0.4C above average)...

These anologues are 1964, 1970 and 1971, here are there composite pressure anomolies...

Looks like a signal for lower pressure to develop over the UK as pressure builds over the Arctic, this is at odds with the concensous of another dry month...

Looking ahead to December, and my data indicates another mild month, though quite dry so, a Euro High senario, however there does seem to be an indication of a potential north easterly between the 8th and 14th as pressure builds over Scandinavia.

[Mr Sleet]

come on with this kind of post?

'As the low pressure over Europe moves towards S/E England BLIZZARDS are possible causing disruption to East Anglia and the South East.

Frost will be widespread and often persistant all day.'

when did this last happen in the areas mentioned in winter let along November, and what basis is this being predicted on?

I'm happy for people to hopecast, we all dream of our winter favourites happening but its not quite fair when its produced as a forecast. Newcomers could be taken in by it, visitors might wonder what Net Wx is up to!

Weather forecasting is, believe it or not based on science. Please tell me what science went into the above.

John,

If Everton Fox can get away with it then why cant Tim ?

[robert]

Snow/Blizzards 18th to 22nd November 2007

Hi,

Well here is my prediction for a big snow event on or between the dates above. It's going to be a winter wonderland this year!

Rob

[Stu_London]

Snow/Blizzards 18th to 22nd November 2007

Hi,

Well here is my prediction for a big snow event on or between the dates above. It's going to be a winter wonderland this year!

Rob

Thanks Rob - I'll keep the bbq out then for those dates.

[Roger J Smith]

I have said these things in other threads, but just to join in on the fun here, my November forecast in some detail, leaving out what we've already had ...

From now to about Monday 12th, I generally agree with the current GFS evolution, mild and cloudy to Wednesday, turning colder in stages on Thursday with strong winds developing from W to NNW overnight, these spreading south on Friday morning and bringing some very sharp hail showers in places with coatings of snow on higher ground. Much milder on Saturday then colder again Sunday and Monday.

From then to about the 23rd, a rather quiet anticyclonic period again, not particularly mild as this high will be of fairly far northern origins and not supported overhead by strong height or thickness, but as a result, also not prone to inversions lasting very long into the daytime, so possibly near normal or a degree or two below much of the time, frequent frosts in rural areas, weak sunshine, the whole dull mid-November business.

From about the 23rd to the end of the month, stormy as the jet stream finally gets its act together in the central Atlantic and brings several deep lows across the northern half of the British Isles, with mild S to SW winds reaching gale or even storm force at times, heavy rain, and temps near 10-12 C to bring the average for the month back up slightly.

[Chris Knight]

Mild. Breezy from west from second week until late in the month, remaining mainly dry in south, but occasionally wet, but below average precipitation in north of uk. Minimal snow, if any, even in Scottish mountains. No marked storms or Atlantic depressions across UK until last week of November. Mild start to December. December wet and changeable, cooling to normal by January.

[london-snow]

Evening all i have a friend who works along side the met office and their current story that their keeping quiet is that this winter is suposed to be the coldest & snowiest in 15 years begining late november it is suppost to turn very cold due to what has been happening throughout this year i,e the servere floods in the summer season this is great news for cold lovers like myself to be honest i dont blame the meto for keeping it quiet becouse of whats happend in the past saying its the big frezze on the way and nothing happens just thought i will let you know cheers all the best.