Tropical Storm Peipah

[Somerset Squall]

We have a new depression (TD21W) in the west pacific which will become Tropical Storm Peipah soon. Convection has consolidated nicely over the centre under low shear and good outflow. The depression could strengthen to a Typhoon before making landfall in the Phillipines, making it the first Phillipine landfall of the season so far (which is unusual, the phillipines often get battered by many storms each season, take last year as a good example). After landfall it will emerge in the southern China Sea, where it might re-intensify after having weakened to a tropical storm over the Phillipines, as shear is forecasted to be low in the region and sea temps will be plenty warm. It is uncertain of future landfalls if any at this range.

Image showing 21W (soon to be Peipah): (loctated in the right of the second middle square)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

You can see it's looking pretty healthy, the phillipines will really need their eye on this one.

[Somerset Squall]

Peipah has become a typhoon and is slamming into the Phillipines. Life threatening rains and damaging winds are likely in the area for at least another 24 hours. Once Peipah emerges into the South China Sea it will begin to regain strength lost over the Philipines as it turns southwestwards in response to a ridge to the north. Good outflow will combat moderate shear and marginal sea temps to make Peipah about an 80kt typhoon before it makes it's second landfall in southeastern Vietnam in a few days.

[Somerset Squall]

Peipah strengthened a little after exiting the Phillipines but is now on a rapid weakening trend- in fact degeneration into a remnant low is forecasted to occur by 36 hours. Peipah's outflow has been cut off and this coupled with marginal sea temps is what ultimately is causing Peipah's demise. It's not expected to hold together as a tropical cyclone until it makes landfall in southeastern Vietnam (as a remnant low in 48 hours).