Cyclone Sidr

[Somerset Squall]

We currently have a tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean (the Bay Of Bengal to be more precise) and it looks like it will become a strong one. Sidr has gradually been spinning up since it began it's life yesterday and is currently at 50kts, but by the end of the forecast period it is forecasted to have sustained winds of 90 kts gusting 110kts with the scope for becoming stronger than that. Outflow is good, shear is low, and sea temps are plenty warm for continued strengthening as it moves generally northwards. An eye feature is already visable so it's not far off Cat 1 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

You can clearly see Sidr in this image:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...xxirmet5bbm.jpg

Not certain about landfalls yet but Burma, India and other nearby countries could be in serious danger by the end of the week.

Anyone else hve any views on this one?

[Somerset Squall]

Sidr has literally bombed over the last few hours! Max sustained winds are now 105kt making it a cat 3 on the saffir-simpson scale. More intensification is forecasted, we may even see a cat 5 out of this one, which would make it the second of the season (following Gonu), which would be a first if it occured wouldn't it?

Even if it doesn't reach cat 5 status, I think Sidr is going to cause major problems a little later down the line.

[Somerset Squall]

Winds have increased to a monsterous 130kt which is just shy of Cat 5 strength. It is possible that it may attain that legendary status before weakening is induced by stronger shear over the northern Bay of Bengal. It's still going to be a pretty intense tropical cyclone when it makes landfall in Bangledesh- expect severe problems there. Doubt it will make the news of course, but it's going to be devestating for Bangledesh.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 14 Nov, 2007 18:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm SIDR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

India

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Bangladesh

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

[mezzacyclone]

Doubt it will make the news of course, but it's going to be devestating for Bangledesh.

Seems valid that it should make the headlines SS, as we all know how vulnerable Bangledesh is geographically-wise, Depends if theirs an update to the "spice tour" though I suppose <_<

Whats NHC's slant on it? Not had chance to hav a butchers?

[Somerset Squall]

Seems valid that it should make the headlines SS, as we all know how vulnerable Bangledesh is geographically-wise, Depends if theirs an update to the "spice tour" though I suppose

Whats NHC's slant on it? Not had chance to hav a butchers?

The NHC doesn't cover tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean. I'm using the JTWC

(Which incidentally shows both the South Pacific and South Indian oceans have woken up with Tropical Cyclones Guba and Lee (which you can see in the bottom half of the image above, beneath Sidr) respectively, just in time as the Atlantic and East Pacific have now gone quiet).

Yes, Sidr might get a mention as it will hit Bangledesh hard- but my point was it would never get as much coverage as a hurricane hitting the USA, or the "Spice Tour" as you mention. <_<

Edited November 15, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

its a super cyclone!

Storm Alert issued at 15 Nov, 2007 12:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm SIDR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

India

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Bangladesh

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 90% currently

Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Cookie- it may have even briefly attained cat 5 status, it offically reached 135kt sustained winds which is right on the boundary between cat4/5.

Sidr is now weakening as it is making landfall in Bangledesh. I wish the best of luck to the inhabitants, this is certainly a monster of a storm hitting a very vunerable country.

According to Wikipedia over 1,000 fishermen are missing as Sidr has sunk 300 fishing boats in the Bay of Bengal. A shocking statistic if correct.

Edited November 15, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[MAF]

latest news http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7095763.stm (Courtesy BBC )

[Somerset Squall]

latest news http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7095763.stm (Courtesy BBC )

Thanks for the link Mick.

I see the wikipedia section about the fishermen was sourced from the Daily Star, hence that hideous death toll figure. I'm obviously more inclined to believe the figure suggested by the BBC- though even this hasn't been confirmed. More reports should be out in the coming days.

[The PIT]

Yes just made the news but really as a passing item.

[Hurricane Andrew]

1,100 Fatalities now from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Sidr

Edited November 16, 2007 by Hurricane Andrew

[Cookie]

thier was allways going to be high numbers for this cyclone

[Hurricane Andrew]

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/southas...h__2nd_Roundup_

[biffvernon]

Looks the death toll could go much higher than Katrina, but does the world know or care?

[Cookie]

I totally agree mate its disgracefull!

[The PIT]

Looks the death toll could go much higher than Katrina, but does the world know or care?

Nope unfortunately the country doesn't have much news pulling power.

[Cookie]

At least 2,388 deaths have been reported.[23] The hardest-hit area was Barguna, where 423 people were reported to have been killed according to local officials. Patuakhali was also hard-hit, with 385 deaths reported.[21] Most of the deaths confirmed thus far were due to the winds, although 13 of them have been as a result of capsized boats in the Faridpur district of Bangladesh.[24] Over 3,000 other fishermen were reported missing on over 500 fishing boats.[25]

taken from

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Sidr

[Somerset Squall]

It's just awful. Death toll will continue to rise as more bodies are found and of course the survivors are now susceptible to diseases. The effects of Sidr will be felt for a long time. The news pictures really hit it home how devestating this storm was. Sidr was interesting to monitor, but disturbing to see the aftermath.

[biffvernon]

Just on the day that the IPCC said "Regional-scale changes include:...likely increase in tropical cyclone intensity;"

Not that a single weather event can ever be attributed to anything except that damn butterfly of course.

[The PIT]

Just on the day that the IPCC said "Regional-scale changes include:...likely increase in tropical cyclone intensity;"

Not that a single weather event can ever be attributed to anything except that damn butterfly of course.

While yet another report that says intensity will decrease due to increased shear.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd just been asking folk here abut the scale of the coverage of katrina compared with Sidr and there is no comparison. Seems we've already passed Katrina's death toll and rescue team are only now reaching the worst hit areas. With sea levels set to rise (if only from thermal expansion) then areas like this will begin to suffer with even small storms (until the land is lost to salt marsh).

[Somerset Squall]

I'd just been asking folk here abut the scale of the coverage of katrina compared with Sidr and there is no comparison. Seems we've already passed Katrina's death toll and rescue team are only now reaching the worst hit areas. With sea levels set to rise (if only from thermal expansion) then areas like this will begin to suffer with even small storms (until the land is lost to salt marsh).

Indeed, the news about Katrina continued for months, sometimes whole news programmes were devoted to coverage. Coverage on Sidr has been little more than a passing two minutes here and there and I suspect any coverage will soon cease, despite the devestation being worse than Katrina. As Pit says, the USA obviously has much more news pulling power.

By the way- does anyone know how Sidr is pronounced? Is it Sid- er? I've never heard the name spoken on the news, perhaps no-one is sure of how it's pronounced

[biffvernon]

BBC News is now carrying this:

Bangladesh's Red Crescent society says up to 10,000 may have died and Red Cross officials say almost one million families have been affected.

Cyclone Sidr, which struck late on Thursday, brought winds of up to 240km/h (150mph) and a tidal surge of several metres.

But it's not on the front page - you have to dig a long way past soooo much trivia to find it.

[Mondy]

It is indeed a fickle world we live in.

During hurricane Katrina, each thread on here covered something like 20-30 pages. 1800 people lost their lives. Every major news channel - BBC, Sky, ITV et al flew teams out to cover the scene.

Bangladesh 2007. 15000 people dead, 7 million displaced, yet little coverage. No news teams evident. No live reporting. And just two pages on here covering it.

I wonder why this is?