December Thoughts

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Week 1

A Scandi HP will be in place with LP to the west winds variable S'ly, SE'ly and SW'ly quite cold/chilly in the SE but less so in the west and North. During the first week the LP will will try and assert its influence hence the variable wind direction and temps will slightly increase as they turn more SW'ly. This is where height rises over Svalbard region come in as it will prevent the LP swinging NE to that region. Rain will edge in from the west and this to-ing and fro-ing will be the general theme.

Week 2

The Scandi HP will form a link with a GHP and winds will be more SE'ly so feeling pretty cool. LP and fronts still affecting western half of the UK with snow over the Scottish mountains. Pressure remains high to the N and NE and becoming cold in Scotland but milder in the south. Period of 10-14 is period of peak energy and a deep area of LP will bring a spell of wet and very windy weather to all areas and pushes the cold weather away NE and a milder few days set in with temps around 10-12c in the south. This spell will be mostly felt in the heart of the UK [CET zone] southwards and it is likely to push through the UK and as it does so winds veer to N/NE'ly bringing the cold air NE of the UK southwards.

Week 3

A cold week for all as the winds are NE'ly affecting the whole of the UK as the LP sinks south into the near continent with snow showers penetrating inland from the east until a HP ridge nudges/topples in and settles things down bringing cold and frosty nights as the week comes to a close. A rebuilding HP in the southern Scandinavia region absorbs the ridge as it begins to retrogress NW and winds turn easterly. Raw and cold SE'ly winds set in over the southern UK as the pressure builds over Greenland and the Atlantic gets held at bay as the GHP ridges south.

Week 4

This sets up a very interesting approach to Christmas as another period of peak energy approaches betwen 24-30. With blocking in place LPs can only approach the UK from the SW. A strong LP will approach and bring a period of wet and windy weather with snow turning to rain as it makes inroads to the UK. However, the blocking will not be shifted and a wave of LPs will try to make inroads with each becoming slightly more intense and very wintry weather will affect north of say the M4 so a potential white Christmas for these areas northwards but more likely Pennines north for 'snow hotspots', southern counties although cold will be wet as the milder air makes inroads.

It is around the 28th when the strongest LP will affect the UK but blocking to the north is very strong and established and very strong/gale force SE'ly winds affect the south west and south of the UK. However, there is only one way for this LP to go...eastwards

Progressively getting colder with a mild interlude mid month and very cold approach to the New Year so CET around 3.5 TO 4.5c. I am confident of the strom potential and the way the arctic is setting itself up I think the storm potential is more likely for the southern areas than the north as I think blocking in the right place is evidencing itself.

regards

BFTP

Edited November 17, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Rustynailer]

I might not see snow but the storms sound interesting and at least you propose it will be cold

It looks like a right battle going on, this year cold could well win for once

Thanks for making the effort and putting yourself in the firing line :lol:

Regards,

Russ

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I might not see snow but the storms sound interesting and at least you propose it will be cold

It looks like a right battle going on, this year cold could well win for once

Thanks for making the effort and putting yourself in the firing line

Regards,

Russ

Very pleasing signs developing in deep FI on 06z GFS. Yes in the line of fire but most on here know that is something I'm prepared to do and thanks

BFTP.

[Gavin P]

:lol:

Excellent forecast. Very much agree with this Blast. I think the Scandi High will be major player this December... Not sure about the whole winter, but I certainly think we're in for a pretty cold December this year.

Am I right in thinking your forecast for the run up to New Year sounds kind of like a New Year 78/79 type scenario? :lol:

[damianslaw]

Excellent forecast. Very much agree with this Blast. I think the Scandi High will be major player this December... Not sure about the whole winter, but I certainly think we're in for a pretty cold December this year.

Am I right in thinking your forecast for the run up to New Year sounds kind of like a New Year 78/79 type scenario?

Not sure whether 1998/1999 was a la nina year (i think some have said it was), but what was interesting about Dec 98 was how we had a rather potent albeit short cold spell early on in the month. I can't help but feel we may see something akin to that spell this coming month, however, I would hope that the rest of the month doesn't turn out like Dec 98 and certainly not the winter.

It would be great just to have at least 1 moderate cold spell with low level lying snow at some point before christmas if only for it to make things seasonal. The ideal spell would come perhaps mid-month and then for a cold high to develop as we run into christmas time itself, wishful thinking!...

[Don]

I also think that December could well be colder than average this year. I feel that it could be the coldest month of the Winter and that we have the winteriest weather earlier on this year, rather than during the 2nd half of February as has been the general trend of the last 5 years. My thoughts are based on the possible moderate to strong La Nina developing.

We shall see.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Excellent forecast. Very much agree with this Blast. I think the Scandi High will be major player this December... Not sure about the whole winter, but I certainly think we're in for a pretty cold December this year.

Am I right in thinking your forecast for the run up to New Year sounds kind of like a New Year 78/79 type scenario?

Hi Gav

Yes it does seem to have 78/9 to it doesn't it although I don't pattern match. I am pretty confident of the storm potential and my month is mainly about northern blocking/-ve AO taking hold and dominating.

BFTP

Edited November 20, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gavin P]

Cheers mate.

[johnholmes]

BFTP

only just seen your post 17/11/07, very detailed, snow and cold lovers will be fervently hoping its correct.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTP

only just seen your post 17/11/07, very detailed, snow and cold lovers will be fervently hoping its correct.

Hi John

Plenty of opportunity in there for milder spells too, which I expect hence 3.5 to 4.5 CET. It really hinges on -ve AO taking control but thanks anyway...I hope its correct too

BFTP

[damianslaw]

I also think that December could well be colder than average this year. I feel that it could be the coldest month of the Winter and that we have the winteriest weather earlier on this year, rather than during the 2nd half of February as has been the general trend of the last 5 years. My thoughts are based on the possible moderate to strong La Nina developing.

We shall see.

I hope la nina doesn't spoil things, just for once I would like to see a january that is proper winter. I can't remember the last proper wintry january, we've had a few wintry decembers and februaries over the last two decades but not a continuously wintry january, yes 1991, 1996, 1997 and 2001 were quite cold but none of these months saw any really snowy severe conditions. I think we have to go back to 1985 for the last truely snowy wintry january (i'm discounting 1987 as the cold spell didn't last the whole month.

Come on winter 2007/2008 keep to the seasons!

[North-Easterly Blast]

December is the winter month that, since 1988, has not warmed or altered much from what it was for the whole of the 1900s, we had two pretty cold Decembers in 1995 and 1996. Many Decembers of the 1960s were pretty cold but apart from one off years such as 1950 and 1981 no other decade in the 1900s saw Decembers much colder than most Decembers in the last 20 years.

Although Januarys 1991, 1997 and 2001 were quite cold none of them saw any real major cold spells and significant snowfall, plus late Jan 1996 saw a cold easterly and snowfall in the east, we have to go back to 1987 and 1985 to find a truly cold wintry January or any prolonged major wintry spell during January.

We did have a truly cold wintry February in 1991, and Febs 1994 and 1996 were pretty cold overall with a number of snowfalls, and there have also been some less severe wintry spells and some snow in the Febs of 2001, 2004 and 2005, so February has done slightly better than January but many Februarys of recent times have also been real stinkers especially late 90s and 2002.

It would be great to see a prolonged wintry spell in either January or February. Feb 2005 came close but it lacked any real cold and lasting snow cover.