December C.E.T

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Its that time of year again :lol:

December CET, what will it be?

[SNOW-MAN2006]

A month long cold spell, 6ft settled snow, with blizzards for much of the month, 50ft snow drifts up cliff faces on coast. Arctic Sea ice will stretch down to English channel. CET = -10.... if only hmmm far 2 early for any predicitions yet, but my col alert is on so maybey something cool.... My entire winter forecast collection, and December forecast will be avaliable towards the end of this month , and i recommend you have a look at my autumn forecast, forecast all the way back in August, which has been very very very accurate! I am extremely pleased with it, better than METO, well not hard to beat :lol: Enjoy the snow that some people are seeing.... nice to see.

I will be back at end of November to place my predicition.

SNOW-MAN2006

[Gavin P]

Good grief, these appear earlier every month. :lol:

Not sure what CET I'm going for, but I am going for a cold month with a number of easterly incursions.

[Lettucing Gutted]

The warmest December on record 8.8C C.E.T

[Bottesford]

Anyone ready to predict May's CET while you're at it! :lol:

Far too early for any predictions - but your welcome to guess...

[Gavin P]

A warm May, which will flatter to decieve, with a horrible summer to follow. :lol:

[The Enforcer]

3.8

[memories of 63]

Come on then all you clever clogs out there. We need the historic averages to be able to bolster our guesses to within the realms of probability. :blush:

[stormforce 10]

2.1c thats my guess, plent of northerly and easterly incursions. :blush:

[Potent Gust]

2.1c thats my guess, plent of northerly and easterly incursions. :blush:

What is the average?

[Mark Bayley]

What is the average?

The 1971-2000 average is 5.1c

[eddie]

The 1971-2000 December average is 5.1C.

The 1961-1990 December average is 4.7C.

Distribution over whole CET series

CET>=-2.0C and < -1.5C occurrences=0

CET>=-1.5C and < -1.0C occurrences=0

CET>=-1.0C and < -0.5C occurrences=1

CET>=-0.5C and < 0.0C occurrences=5

CET>=0.0C and < 0.5C occurrences=3

CET>=0.5C and < 1.0C occurrences=6

CET>=1.0C and < 1.5C occurrences=9

CET>=1.5C and < 2.0C occurrences=17

CET>=2.0C and < 2.5C occurrences=16

CET>=2.5C and < 3.0C occurrences=22

CET>=3.0C and < 3.5C occurrences=34

CET>=3.5C and < 4.0C occurrences=49

CET>=4.0C and < 4.5C occurrences=38

CET>=4.5C and < 5.0C occurrences=40

CET>=5.0C and < 5.5C occurrences=30

CET>=5.5C and < 6.0C occurrences=28

CET>=6.0C and < 6.5C occurrences=22

CET>=6.5C and < 7.0C occurrences=15

CET>=7.0C and < 7.5C occurrences=7

CET>=7.5C and < 8.0C occurrences=4

CET>=8.0C and < 8.5C occurrences=2

CET>=8.5C and < 9.0C occurrences=0

Graph

CET>=-2.0C and < -1.5C

CET>=-1.5C and < -1.0C

CET>=-1.0C and < -0.5C x

CET>=-0.5C and < 0.0C xxxxx

CET>=0.0C and < 0.5C xxx

CET>=0.5C and < 1.0C xxxxxx

CET>=1.0C and < 1.5C xxxxxxxxx

CET>=1.5C and < 2.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=2.0C and < 2.5C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=2.5C and < 3.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=3.0C and < 3.5C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=3.5C and < 4.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=4.0C and < 4.5C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=4.5C and < 5.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=5.0C and < 5.5C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=5.5C and < 6.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=6.0C and < 6.5C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=6.5C and < 7.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CET>=7.0C and < 7.5C xxxxxxx

CET>=7.5C and < 8.0C xxxx

CET>=8.0C and < 8.5C xx

CET>=8.5C and < 9.0C

Distribution over the last 30 years

CET>=-2.0C and < -1.5C

CET>=-1.5C and < -1.0C

CET>=-1.0C and < -0.5C

CET>=-0.5C and < 0.0C

CET>=0.0C and < 0.5C x

CET>=0.5C and < 1.0C

CET>=1.0C and < 1.5C

CET>=1.5C and < 2.0C

CET>=2.0C and < 2.5C x

CET>=2.5C and < 3.0C x

CET>=3.0C and < 3.5C

CET>=3.5C and < 4.0C xxx

CET>=4.0C and < 4.5C xxx

CET>=4.5C and < 5.0C xxx

CET>=5.0C and < 5.5C xxx

CET>=5.5C and < 6.0C xxxxxxxxx

CET>=6.0C and < 6.5C xxxx

CET>=6.5C and < 7.0C x

CET>=7.0C and < 7.5C

CET>=7.5C and < 8.0C x

CET>=8.0C and < 8.5C

CET>=8.5C and < 9.0C

[PersianPaladin]

I'll go for 6.5C

[swales]

4.5, colder.

[eddie]

The warmest December on record 8.8C C.E.T

I'm going for 9.2C.

[Don]

Good grief, these appear earlier every month.

Yes they certainly do! Too early for me to make a call, but my for hunch for some time has been for a colder than average December, although by how much I don't know. I will make a firm guestimate next week.

:blush:

[Optimus Prime]

At this stage I would slightly favour a cold December, but only just.

This is not a prediction but I think it may just make the mid 3s. A long way of yet of course!

[Don]

The warmest December on record 8.8C C.E.T

There's a surprise!

:blush:

[BARRY]

It's going to be cold

so it's 3.1c from me

[The PIT]

I'll go for 5.6C slightly above average.

[North-Easterly Blast]

A question for Kevin Bradshaw;

December is another transistional month where in the majority of years the second half will be colder than the first, like Sep/Oct/Nov. I would be grateful if you could post a list of years where December had a warmer second half than the first half? I can start this list off myself that I know all five consecutive Decembers from 1987-1991 had a warmer second half than the first, and before that 1980, 1982 and 1983, and since 1991, 1997 and 2002 had a warmer second half.

[Stu_London]

This is an important point, this is the start of a 'new' CET competition. There was talk of some rule changes, namely

1) Not being able to chop and change your punt up to the last minute (I would agree with this)

2) Whether we use Hadley over Manley (Not sure - HAdley usually changes on the last day quite dramatically and this month is an abhoration)

[Stratos Ferric]

This is an important point, this is the start of a 'new' CET competition. There was talk of some rule changes, namely

1) Not being able to chop and change your punt up to the last minute (I would agree with this)

2) Whether we use Hadley over Manley (Not sure - HAdley usually changes on the last day quite dramatically and this month is an abhoration)

Stu, what's the rationale for stopping people who want to from changing their punt? The rationale for Manley (Philip's numbers) have been repeated over and over - it's more immediate: Hadley changes, sometimes months later.

[The Enforcer]

I suppose changing an estimate is a form of shuffling, which I normally detest, however, if my understanding is correct, there are penalties for doing this in these threads and therefore I find it acceptable.

If the overall CET pattern comes out as I thought it would, then I shan't be bothered about the odd 0.1C here or there.

[Potent Gust]

I will go for a slightly under the average 4.8C