December C.E.T

[Plate]

An average 5.1

[SNOWPLOUGH]

below average 4.2

[acbrixton]

The 1961-90 December average is 4.6 whilst the (Manley) 10 year rolling average is 5.3.

regards

ACB

[Stratos Ferric]

I suppose changing an estimate is a form of shuffling, which I normally detest, however, if my understanding is correct, there are penalties for doing this in these threads and therefore I find it acceptable.

If the overall CET pattern comes out as I thought it would, then I shan't be bothered about the odd 0.1C here or there.

Completely agree re the latter: it's not material, but I'd favour a prompt resolution at each month's end.

Penalties only accrue for late entries, not for changed entries before the deadline. The only nuisance with changing is that sometimes entries get missed in the early list, but the individuals invariably pick this up themselves.

[richarddx7]

December 2007 CET: 4.1*C

[Stu_London]

Stu, what's the rationale for stopping people who want to from changing their punt? The rationale for Manley (Philip's numbers) have been repeated over and over - it's more immediate: Hadley changes, sometimes months later.

I don't hold a strong view on either to be honest.

I was just saying what had been mooted by others previously

[VillagePlank]

There is some argument to suggesting that all CET entries should be made two weeks before the start of the month. No easy anticyclonic gloom to get past the first 25%, then !

[memories of 63]

I'll go for a nice round 5.0 C and hope for 5 gold rings on Xmas day

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting to see the early punts being more cold. Current spell influencing? I will wait until.....30/11 but it won't be warm

BFTP

[Weather-history]

A question for Kevin Bradshaw;

December is another transistional month where in the majority of years the second half will be colder than the first, like Sep/Oct/Nov. I would be grateful if you could post a list of years where December had a warmer second half than the first half? I can start this list off myself that I know all five consecutive Decembers from 1987-1991 had a warmer second half than the first, and before that 1980, 1982 and 1983, and since 1991, 1997 and 2002 had a warmer second half.

There's plenty, here's just the list since World War II

2002, 1998, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1988, 1987, 1983, 1982, 1980, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1971, 1969, 1966, 1960

1959, 1958, 1957, 1954, 1952, 1951, 1949, 1947, 1945,

[Gavin P]

Not many since 1991 though Kevin. Interesting stats.

[North-Easterly Blast]

You missed out 1997 Kevin. That December had a warmer second half than the first, first half 5.7, second half 5.9. To work it out in a 31 day month I input the first 15 daily CETs plus half of the daily CET of the 16th of the month and divide the total by 15.5. I use the same method for the second half of the month by averaging the CETs for the 17th-31st plus half of the figure for the 16th. An example is if the daily CET for the 16th is 5.0, then I input 2.5. I think 1969 is wrong. If I am aware the first half of Dec 1969 is 3.9 and the second half 2.6. Correct me if I am wrong.

[Weather-history]

You missed out 1997 Kevin. That December had a warmer second half than the first, first half 5.7, second half 5.9. To work it out in a 31 day month I input the first 15 daily CETs plus half of the daily CET of the 16th of the month and divide the total by 15.5. I use the same method for the second half of the month by averaging the CETs for the 17th-31st plus half of the figure for the 16th. An example is if the daily CET for the 16th is 5.0, then I input 2.5. I think 1969 is wrong. If I am aware the first half of Dec 1969 is 3.9 and the second half 2.6. Correct me if I am wrong.

I use the Philip Eden method (1-15; 16-31), it may not be perfect but it saves a lot of messing about. 1969 is my mistake, I was looking at the wrong year

[fishdude]

Im thinking December will be cold, with a CET of 4.0C

[summer blizzard]

2.1C: Stormforce 10

3.1C: Barry

3.8C: The Enforcer

4C: Fishdude

4.1C: Richarddx7

4.2C: Mufc

4.5C: Skwales

4.8C: Potent Gust

5C: Memories of 63

5.1C: Plate

5.6C: The Pit

5.9C: Summer Blizzard

6.5C: Persian Paladin

8.8C: Craig Evans

9.2C: Eddie

My own prediction which may be altered on the 29th, is 5.9C, 0.8C above average.

[PB22]

The return of the Atlantic is what I am going for, and a CET of 6.2C.

[James M]

I'll go for 4.9C

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, the early portents are NOT favouring cold.

[memories of 63]

Well, the early portents are NOT favouring cold.

Ah yes SF but the question is are they less mild than recent years? :lol:

[Optimus Prime]

I'm only going for one prediction this month;

4.8c

[Potent Gust]

I'm going for 9.2C.

My word if this happens I will post pictures of me taken on my stag do 2 years ago

Now I have said that it is bound to happen :lol:

[Radiating Dendrite]

I am going for a cold one, with a normal first half but very cold second half of the month. The figure 3.7C is my guess.

[eddie]

My word if this happens I will post pictures of me taken on my stag do 2 years ago :blink:

Now I have said that it is bound to happen

Well I have no hope of winning the annual CET competition and I just thought it would be funny if we got a massive record month and Craig Evans still lost.

[Stratos Ferric]

There is some argument to suggesting that all CET entries should be made two weeks before the start of the month. No easy anticyclonic gloom to get past the first 25%, then !

I think that's a more interesting idea, and would certainly level the playing field for those who are less able to read models, or less inclined to do so. To Tamara's point therefore, all entries are guesses, as she infers - and lest we kid ourselves otherwise - so if we want it to be pure guesswork an early cut-off helps. If we believe that the models have some merit, even if that's only for upto a week out, and if we want to reward ability and endeavour, then we should keep the late cut-off. Tamara's point re the chore of compilation is fair, though people can self regulate on that one if there are errors in the list. The alternative might be to allow one change per person per month, though to be honest I think this one's a bit of a canard: apart from SB very few people change minds persistently, and, speaking for my myself only, I rather enjoy watching SB veer around like a crazy dervish.

Ah yes SF but the question is are they less mild than recent years?

Oooh, big questions...though it wouldn't be hard.

[kold weather]

I strongly suspect that like most La nina's that are as strong as this one we'll come fairly close to the average for the month, probably more biased on the mild side mind you and so therefore I'd go for 5.5C