December C.E.T

[Don]

Right. After having a hunch for some time that this December would be colder than average, after the last few days with what the models have shown, I no longer think this will be the case However, I still feel that there's a good chance of seeing the winteriest spell of Winter later on in the month, but this won't be enough to counteract the mild first half.

My final estimate is a rather miserable 6.0C.

[tesaro]

6.3

Cant see it being as mild as some of u think...we'll see!

[Cal]

5.8 For me , thanks.

Edited November 28, 2007 by Cal

[snowsure]

4.8 C

Or, working to the required 5 sig figs that some people need, 4.8136 C

Anorak firmly back on.

Nov guess: 7.1 C

What a track record!

[Mr.Plow]

Hi,

i am taking a punt at 5.2c, my unnecessarily large gut feeling is that the charts will start to show up some cooler incursions after the weekend.

Also my little toe is twingeing so we are bound to have fog after this windy spell clears! (We must be due a Daily Express headline of Thickest Fog for 100 years to hit UK)

Thanks.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

In conjunction with my winter prediction i am looking for 5.0 this mont

:huh:

SM06

[damianslaw]

Ok I'm going for 5.2 degrees.

A mild first couple of weeks dominated by atlantic westerlies then a switch mid month to average or below average conditions.

[SP1986]

A very mild 7.0C

[West is Best]

4.4C

[Stratos Ferric]

ANNOUNCEMENT

Jacko and I have been discussing three amendments to the CET competition: one makes no difference to entrants at all, one other does, and the third might.

1 - Change to scoring: at present there is, as Jacko has pointed out, a very slight inequality in the scoring of the different sections. The scoring for absolute guess works fine, as does the scoring for proximity / accuracy. The concern we share is for the position points, where, in a month with a low number of entrants, the winner might be disadvantaged. In theory it would be possible for someone to win two months on the trot and still attract fewer points than a non winner in a month with far more entrants. Therefore, the proposal is, in every month, to allocate a normalised value for positional points. The first placed entrant will attract 100 points, and the bottom placed just 1 point. Points will then be allocated at equal intervals between 1-100 to each position from second to next last.

2 - To make this work more smoothly, and avoid the 'problem' of multiple entrants on any one value getting the same placing, the proposal is that where there are several entrants punting the same value, entries be ranked preferentially from the earliest received to the last. For example, say I guess 8.6 on the 31st of the month, Jacko guesses the same on the 30th, and SB makes his fifth and last guess of the month at the same value on the 29th. To keep it simple, just say there were 100 entrants this particular month, and we were tied 8th. Ordinarily we would all attract 93 points. The proposal now is that SB would get 93, Jacko 92, and myself 91, i.e. we would be allocated not 8=, but 8th, 9th and 10th place respectively.

3 - BONUS POINTS. To spice the competition up a bit we are proposing a mid month 'sprint' bonus. This would require that entrants make two guesses (alternatively, entrants not making a mid month guess would have their final value count for mid month as well). The bonus here would be a simple 10pt for nailing it bang on (or 0.05 either side should the value be a n.n5 value on the morning of the 16th of the month) and 5 points for upto +/- 0.2 either side of the target value(s). For example, say the mid month is 8.3, then values from 8.1 - 8.5 would pick up bonus points, with 10 for 8.3. If the value were 8.25 then 8.0 - 8.5 would score, with both 8.2 and 8.3 attracting the ten bonus points.

Items 1 and 2 can be started with immediate effect, albeit - in the case of 2 - to the very slight advantage of those having made early punts.

Item 3 would require all entrants to date to offer an additional mid way punt, should they want to choose one differing from their final value. The running mean for the past Decembers has been posted by Yours Truly a couple of pages back, make of it what you will.

So, our proposal is to commence with no.1 and no.2 anyway; what we need is a quick vox-pop re number 3. Ayes to the right; nos to the left.

[eddie]

ANNOUNCEMENT

Item 3 would require all entrants to date to offer an additional mid way punt, should they want to choose one differing from their final value. The running mean for the past Decembers has been posted by Yours Truly a couple of pages back, make of it what you will.

So, our proposal is to commence with no.1 and no.2 anyway; what we need is a quick vox-pop re number 3. Ayes to the right; nos to the left.

Item 3 sounds like a pain for whoever has to work it all out but since that won't be me I will vote yes.

[Roger J Smith]

The secondary feature shows up in a recent profile I completed on similar lunar months especially those that fall into the same J and Ma analogue sets. The reason is probably that a very strong event on timing line two proceeds east and keeps the zonal flow going after the strong event crosses timing line three. From now on all monthly forecasts that I submit will be pretty much straight research output rather than any kind of semi-subjective assessments. Hopefully this will eliminate the wild swings from large errors to very small ones that marked the past twelve tries, but in part the error variation will have to fall off because the research profiles are often going to be within 1 or 1.5 deg of average. So it will be interesting to see how the forecasts fare, because this is basically a real-time test of the developing theory (past two years of entries were done without much reference to the data sets that I have now acquired).

The current situation demonstrates the same situation -- the rather weak N Max event now going through the UK is to be followed in 72 hours by a stronger event. In December, I think the N Max combined with the full moon on the 24th will be a much stronger event than today's, but the following event on the 28th should also be strong, so two strong lows in succession.

Without going Corbyn-like, the second of these could become quite windy, I had originally been thinking the 24th Dec storm would bring strong winds but these may be confined to far northern areas because of the continuing mild spell through to the 28th. So what's interesting here is that a research-driven forecast of specific weather events over the FI horizon are being incorporated into the forecast.

As with November, the trend before the 24th will be important in determining how the average responds with the mild spell near the end of the month -- the main error in my estimate for November was that all the bits and pieces were a bit milder than expected, but the actual trend forecast (check back and see) was quite accurate, including the reversal of the downward trend after the 25th. So I am getting a little more optimistic despite the extremely challenging nature of this project (not to mention the aging process and the distractions of one's non-weather life). :huh:

[Stargazer]

I see a typical mild zonal month reminiscent of last winter, with a CET of 6.2. The first half looks exceptionally mild, so if there are any extra points available for a mid-month guess, I'll go for 7.0.

Edited November 29, 2007 by Stargazer

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning everyone,

After having viewed these horror charts for a couple of days, I`m going to have to jump ship and amend my forecast to 5.9c. :blush:

Regards,

Tom.

[noggin]

4.9c for me please. Ta.

A cursory checking of my tea leaves and a trawl through ye olde weather recordes leads me to believe that a CET of 4.9c might be on the cards for December. I would have gone lower but I'm a bit grumpy this morning.

Who knows, though? December 1981 had a CET of 0.3 despite a mild start and a mild end. I remember going out in that cold middle spell, I had to walk to work as the buses had been taken off....'twas quite eerie in the darkness with snow falling and temps in the minus 20s and practically no traffic due to the road conditions.

Anyway, as Ronnie Corbett would say, I digress.

[Stratos Ferric]

Item 3 sounds like a pain for whoever has to work it all out but since that won't be me I will vote yes.

Jacko and I have talked about that and he's happy. The bigger issue, and even this isn't huge, is just in setting up the starting list that various people very kindly take it upon themselves to produce. The data strip and processing are fairly straightforward. Jacko, I suggest the starting list be formatted nn.n,nn.n: name, e.g. 06.4,06.1: Stratos Ferric. You'd better holler if you want it presenting differently.

[Kentish Man]

6.6C

I'll add a mid - month prediction later if you decide to go ahead with (3). Changes (1) and (2) are good.

Having read GP's post following I think he has a valid point there so on balance I'll vote no for (3)

Edited November 29, 2007 by Kentish Man

[BornFromTheVoid]

I will hazard a guess at 6C :blush:

[Glacier Point]

(1) and (2) I think are good tweaks to what is already a good little competition.

(3) - not so sure, logistical nightmare to keep track of, ending up in threads 60 pages plus, difficulties in late postings for just 10 points ?

I think also the spirit of the competion would be eroded somewhat aswell. It's kind of fun to put a punt in which is not what the models are currently showing and see it come to fruition second half, which is what it's all about, maybe not just calling it twice on the basis of what 15 day ensemble means show. I appreciate though some people who have got it horribly wrong might want something to cheer about come mid month. My advice, get better punts.

[Devon-Nelly]

After days of debate i'm settling with a near average 5.2c, just added my December forecast on my blog, its a very basic one lol, adding my winter one later

[cheeky_monkey]

i missed the nov comp cus i was out of the country and had no internet access...but im back for this months punt..lets see strong la nina..minimumsun spot activity...all adds up 2 a mild... 6.2c... looking at past decembers with a similar set up.

[Steady Easterly]

5.7, is my wild guess.

[Summer of 95]

4.9C

A tedious mild start then a colder second half just enough to prevent a whole year of months above 5C.

[mk13]

My December punt is 6.1C

[shuggee]

5.8ºC

Exceptionally mild start - then a cooler wet period, followed by a settled Xmas with HP dominating and lots of frost and fog.

I like 1] and 2] - but have a feeling 3] is over-complicating it.