Tropical Storm Mitag

[Somerset Squall]

We have a new depression east of the phillipines, soon to be named Hagibis. A westwards track is forcasted for much the same reason as TS23W (Mitag), as a elongated high stretches to the north of the storm. Intensification should occur as the environment remains favourable for the duration of the forecast period and the JTWC calls for 24W to become a typhoon before landfall occurs in the Phillipines. As flooding has been a major problem after Mitag, things are only likely to get worse if Hagibis makes the predicted landfall.

Satellite Image (Hagibis to the east of phillipines, Mitag to the southwest)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

[Somerset Squall]

I've got them the wrong way around, this is Tropical Storm Mitag (east of Phillipines) and 23W (other thread) will be Tropical Storm Hagibis. Could a mod change the titles? thanks in advance.

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm Mitag has continued to strengthen as it pushes westwards towards the Phillipines, and conditions are favourable for Mitag to become a Typhoon as it nears the country. It is currently at 50kts. Forecast complications for track have arisen though for the end of the forecast period as it rounds the periphery of a subtropical ridge a more northward turn could materialise, but not soon enough to spare the Phillipines yet more flooding and damaging wainds.

[Somerset Squall]

Mitag is now looking very interesting. There is the possibility of rapid strengthening as it nears the Phillipines due to waters of 29C, low shear and excellent outflow. Official forecasts put Mitag at cat 2 90kt when nearing the Phillipines but it's possible that Mitag will be stronger than that. A crossing of the Phillipines looks unlikely as Mitag will round the periphery of the high pressure to the north and start a poleward turn whilst east of the Phillipines. Conditions will remain favourable throughout so we could end up with a major storm.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 21 Nov, 2007 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MITAG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the update Cookie. Like Hagibis, Mitag has just been upgraded to a Typhoon by the JTWC. Now forecasted to be a category 3 storm with 105kt sustained winds when it makes landfall in the Philipines.

Met Office article on Mitag

[Cookie]

thanks for the link mate

[Somerset Squall]

Continued ridging to the north of Typhoon Mitag will ensure that it now does indeed cross the Phillipines. Mitag has continued to intensify and now has sustained winds of 80kts, just shy of cat 2 strength. Further intensification is forecast before Mitag makes landfall in the Phillipines.

[Somerset Squall]

Another Met Office article, could reach Super Typhoon strength before landfall.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/impact...1/18365448.html

[Somerset Squall]

Typhoon Mitag is a 95kt high end cat 2 storm. The typhoon has stalled to the east of the Phillipines as it has entered a competetive steering environment between sunbtropical ridges to the north and south. This will delay the landfall that Mitag will make on the Phillipines. Shear has also increased over Mitag, hence the slow down in intensification. Mitag is still likely to have sustained winds upwards from 100kts at landfall though, so widepread evacuation is being rushed to completion.

[Somerset Squall]

Mitag has failed to strengthen any further and has in fact weakened over the last 6 hours to 85kt, low end cat 2 status due to land interaction. Mitag will cross the Phillipines and emerge in the South China Sea where it will continue to weaken due to high shear and recurve northeastwards where it should begin extratropical transistion, after 72 hours. The northeastward turn is anticipated due to an approaching trough from the west, but it's worth noting that this is not set in stone yet. What ever way you look at it though, Mitag is unlikely to regain Typhoon status once it clears the Phillipines.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 24 Nov, 2007 12:00 GMT

Typhoon MITAG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

[Cookie]

an update

Typhoon MITAG is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Mitag has been an absolute nightmare! Firstly a direct Phillipine landfall was likely, then forecasted to not make landfall, then forecasted to make a direct landfall before, once again, being forecasted to miss a direct landfall. Now it's expected to scrape the northeast of the Phillipines. I wish it would make it's mind up!

Mitag has weakened back to a 75kt cat 1 typhoon as inflow has been interupted because of land interaction of the west of the storm. Mitag is moving north-northwestward around the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast. Once it moves around the ridge, Mitag should begin to move northeastwards and begin extratropical transition. It's worth noting that not only the Phillipines will feel the effects of Mitag; Taiwan will too as the storm scrapes by as a minimal typhoon.

[Cookie]

it keeps things intresting at least

[Somerset Squall]

it keeps things intresting at least

That's one way of looking at it.

Mitag is now brushing Taiwan as a minimal typhoon. It will begin extratropical transistion from about now as it pushes northeastwards and interacts with upper level westerlies. Mitag is likely to be a large and powerful extratropical storm.

Doesn't really warrant a new thread but Tropical Depression 25W has formed east of Mitag. It's likely to briefly intensify into a tropical storm and race northeastwards ahead of Mitag whilst turning extratropical. It shouldn't affect land in it's short lifetime.

Certainly a busy period in the west pacific with three storms currently active.

[Somerset Squall]

Mitag and Tropical Depression 25W are no more, at least in the tropical sense. Both are rapidly turning extratropical and should complete transistion within the next 12 hours.

There is yet another disturbance which looks like developing east of the Phillipines. Might make a thread if it develops and threatens land.

[Cookie]

cool thanks again for the updates