Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

MetOffice updated Winter Forecast


suffolkboy_

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

    Well as promised by the MetOffice, they have updated their seasonal forecast today (22nd Novemeber).

    It is difficult to see much difference from their previous forecast back in October.

    Temperatures: More likely to be above average, but cooler than last year

    Precipitation: Drier than last year, around average or maybe above.

    This is it:

    This year, conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean favour a near-neutral North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), rather than the positive phase predicted and observed last winter. See the hyperlink for details of the impact of NAO on winter weather in Europe. However, La Niña conditions – which have widespread impacts across the globe - are now well established in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to persist through the winter period. There is evidence that La Niña has a weak influence on European winter climate, favouring positive NAO in the latter part of winter.

    Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of December, January and February although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this period, especially in northern Britain.

    Forecast for Winter 2007/8

    Temperature

    We continue to predict that above-normal winter temperatures are more likely than below-normal temperatures over much of the European region. However, this winter is likely to be less mild in most regions than last winter, when exceptionally mild conditions were widespread across Europe.

    For the UK as a whole, winter-mean temperatures are more likely to be above normal than either near or below normal. Although a winter milder than the 1971-2000 average is favoured, temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced in the very mild winter last year.

    Precipitation

    Latest indications suggest that, for northern Europe, above-average winter rainfall is more likely than below-average rainfall. In contrast, for southern Europe below-average rainfall is more likely than above-average.

    For the UK as a whole, winter rainfall is slightly more likely to be near, or above average, than below average.

    What does everybody else think? Are the Met just covering their behinds again?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 21
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

    Just popping this over to the media/internet forecasts area :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

    Sorry, :) i thought I was posting this in the right place, as it is to do with winter, and is probably the most respected winter forecast. :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

    Doesn't really say much. As last winter was so mild it really doesn't take a genius to predict this year will be less so.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    on the tin it says above average based on the 1971-2000, with above average rainfall

    No doubt what may erk some people is that they do not mention snow!

    whatever they say there are some who will complain about it.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

    Obviously the MetOffice are very well respected, so they are unlikely to stick their knecks out and predict anything too specific, beacuase in all honesty, they don't really know.

    The last thing they want is a bad forecast, putting doubts into people's minds about their forecasting ability. They've got all posts covered.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

    One thing worth mentioning is that the cold winter of 1995-96 was a very weak La Nina winter, and the winters of 1954-55 and 1955-56 were moderate La Nina winters, and they were cold overall especially during February.

    I know that the very mild 1988-89 winter was a strong La Nina winter, but the very mild 1989-90 winter saw a neutral ENSO phase. It is also worth pointing out that the winter of 2001-02 that saw prolonged unusual mild spells in Jan and Feb was also a neutral ENSO winter.

    So with the ENSO status of all these winters mentioned, it is difficult to see any correlation of how La Nina conditions influence the British Winter. Yes, we have had one disaster in 1988-89 with a strong La Nina, but we have also had disasters in 1989-90 and 2001-02 with a neutral ENSO phase.

    It does not take a brave call of the Met Office to predict a warmer winter than the 71-00 average, as that is what most winters since 1988 have been, but I see from the top two paragraphs of this post that it is difficult to see that moderate to strong La Nina winters encourage prolonged mild spells.

    Another thing worth considering is that the weather patterns this autumn have been much different to the patterns that have often occurred in recent years. October was the driest for 12 years, and a big change from the wet Octobers of recent years. September did not feature the heatwaves / Euro High that has been the case in many recent years. November also looks likely to end up with a CET close to the long term average, and also the summer this year was cooler than in many of the last 20 years. So, all this does give some hope that the weather patterns this winter may differ from recent years, although it may not be a particularly cold winter, it may be at least colder than recent years.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
    on the tin it says above average based on the 1971-2000, with above average rainfall

    No doubt what may erk some people is that they do not mention snow!

    whatever they say there are some who will complain about it.

    Does it John?? Not IMO.

    What it says is stuff like "is more likely" or "is less likely". I'm afraid as a forecast that is about as useful as a chocolate teapot.

    It's no different to me saying, December is more likely to be colder than November. It's not saying it will be, it's not saying it won't be, in fact it's saying nothing - much like that entire forecast.

    I fully understand the problems surrounding LRF's and the very last thing I'd advocate is the MO producing a kind of PC styleee forecast that has recently constipated the DE.

    However if the LRF they produce is to have any value, especially commercially, they have to adope a much less wooly, fence sitting approach.

    OK they got caught with their proverbial pants down with this Summers forecast, but so what? This is the weather after all and no one (PC excepted of course.. :) ) has a god given right to be correct all the time.

    I think the population in general would be far more forgiving of an inccurate forecast than one that is clearly designed to "not be wrong", rather than to be right.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Notts. - Leics. Border
  • Location: Notts. - Leics. Border
    Does it John?? Not IMO.

    What it says is stuff like "is more likely" or "is less likely". I'm afraid as a forecast that is about as useful as a chocolate teapot.

    It's no different to me saying, December is more likely to be colder than November. It's not saying it will be, it's not saying it won't be, in fact it's saying nothing - much like that entire forecast.

    I fully understand the problems surrounding LRF's and the very last thing I'd advocate is the MO producing a kind of PC styleee forecast that has recently constipated the DE.

    However if the LRF they produce is to have any value, especially commercially, they have to adope a much less wooly, fence sitting approach.

    OK they got caught with their proverbial pants down with this Summers forecast, but so what? This is the weather after all and no one (PC excepted of course.. :) ) has a god given right to be correct all the time.

    I think the population in general would be far more forgiving of an inccurate forecast than one that is clearly designed to "not be wrong", rather than to be right.

    Indeed, an utterly pathetic and ridiculous forecast. It's worth commenting that the categories chosen - below average, close to average and above average are terciles, that is, the cut off temperature range defining each category has been selected so that each category has occured with equal frequency in the historical record. I seem to recall reading, that this year they were claiming that the winter season has a 41% chance of falling in the above average category, higher than the long term 33.3%. Even if these are true odds i.e. their forecasting theory is sound, it still implies a 59% chance that the winter season will be either close to average or below average. It would have been far better and less irritating had they simply said that no strong signal has been detected this year.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    Does it John?? Not IMO.

    What it says is stuff like "is more likely" or "is less likely". I'm afraid as a forecast that is about as useful as a chocolate teapot.

    It's no different to me saying, December is more likely to be colder than November. It's not saying it will be, it's not saying it won't be, in fact it's saying nothing - much like that entire forecast.

    I fully understand the problems surrounding LRF's and the very last thing I'd advocate is the MO producing a kind of PC styleee forecast that has recently constipated the DE.

    However if the LRF they produce is to have any value, especially commercially, they have to adope a much less wooly, fence sitting approach.

    OK they got caught with their proverbial pants down with this Summers forecast, but so what? This is the weather after all and no one (PC excepted of course.. :) ) has a god given right to be correct all the time.

    I think the population in general would be far more forgiving of an inccurate forecast than one that is clearly designed to "not be wrong", rather than to be right.

    Unfortunately, realistically that's the best you can really do with LRF's at this current time. You can only really go with probabilities hence things like "is more likely" or "is less likely" I think it wil be some years if ever when we will have powerful enough computer models to predict seasons with high detail.

    :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
    Unfortunately, realistically that's the best you can really do with LRF's at this current time. You can only really go with probabilities hence things like "is more likely" or "is less likely" I think it wil be some years if ever when we will have powerful enough computer models to predict seasons with high detail.

    :)

    Yes I can see that and accept it Don, but as they are patently of very little use to anyone you've got to wonder why they produce them at all?

    This type of forecast is absolutely pointless IMO. However, this winter is likely to be less mild in most regions than last winter. For me it smacks of deperation to at least get one thing right, but even then we're only treated to another "is likely to be"

    Hold the front page - *This Winter is likely to be colder than last Summer.

    *Note if this goes wrong I didn't say it would be.... :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    its your kind of comment that makes me despair.

    Maybe a tour around the Exeter centre and their work explained might help you and some others to understand that forecasts be they for tomorrow or 3 months ahead are highly valuable to the people who pay. Simply to say, to for instance, Tesco, what you have read on Met O site allows them to plan on that basis. No harsh prolonged winter, talk to Tesco's and ask if that is true. They will of course be receiving taylor made forecasts as routine throughout the 12 months as do all the major retailers, transport, energy, aviation etc.

    So although the forecast is not what many on this forum might think is any point issuing it, believe me there is a lot of economic sense in it. Equally if its wrong and Tesco's have only got 1m sledges and the country is snow covered for 3 months, then there will one hell of a complaint!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL
    its your kind of comment that makes me despair.

    Maybe a tour around the Exeter centre and their work explained might help you and some others to understand that forecasts be they for tomorrow or 3 months ahead are highly valuable to the people who pay. Simply to say, to for instance, Tesco, what you have read on Met O site allows them to plan on that basis. No harsh prolonged winter, talk to Tesco's and ask if that is true. They will of course be receiving taylor made forecasts as routine throughout the 12 months as do all the major retailers, transport, energy, aviation etc.

    So although the forecast is not what many on this forum might think is any point issuing it, believe me there is a lot of economic sense in it. Equally if its wrong and Tesco's have only got 1m sledges and the country is snow covered for 3 months, then there will one hell of a complaint!

    A voice of sense and reasoning. Thank you John.

    ffO.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
    Maybe a tour around the Exeter centre and their work explained might help you and some others to understand that forecasts be they for tomorrow or 3 months ahead are highly valuable to the people who pay. Simply to say, to for instance, Tesco, what you have read on Met O site allows them to plan on that basis. No harsh prolonged winter, talk to Tesco's and ask if that is true. They will of course be receiving taylor made forecasts as routine throughout the 12 months as do all the major retailers, transport, energy, aviation etc.

    So although the forecast is not what many on this forum might think is any point issuing it, believe me there is a lot of economic sense in it. Equally if its wrong and Tesco's have only got 1m sledges and the country is snow covered for 3 months, then there will one hell of a complaint!

    John - I have no desire nor intention of getting embroilled in any kind of arguement regarding the above.

    I'll accept your arguement, I don't agree with it, but that really doesn't matter. However I certainly would not post such things as... its your kind of comment that makes me despair.

    I really do not see how that type of thing furthers good debate, which I thought, perhaps naively, was what this forum was all about.

    If the likes of yourself are unable to resist making such comments, others will simply see it as a green light to be even more disrespectful.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    debate yes, but constructive and with knowledge.

    This is from the Met O site and some may be interested in what is involved and how many areas it covers.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/retail/

    I will not clutter up this thread with any more comments but am happy to exchange pm's with people about the topic.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Chesham, Bucks
  • Location: Chesham, Bucks

    Can I point out, respectfully of course, that not all of us on this forum are weather experts. I am interested in the weather because it affects my plans for my land and livestock. I am also on of those annoying snow lovers. Does this mean that because I have no learned and scientific knowledge of the weather, I cannot take part in any weather related debates?

    debate yes, but constructive and with knowledge.

    This is from the Met O site and some may be interested in what is involved and how many areas it covers.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/retail/

    I will not clutter up this thread with any more comments but am happy to exchange pm's with people about the topic.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
    I really do not see how that type of thing furthers good debate, which I thought, perhaps naively, was what this forum was all about.

    Is it a good debate though JT?

    My wife once told me, if you dont have anything nice to say, why say anything at all.

    Of course, you could mean a good analysis, but to do that, you would need to do so after the event. To debate, you need facts.

    Why complain about a free sample of food? It was free, and it was your choice to eat it.

    Why complain about a free forecast? It was free, and it was your choice to read it.

    To criticise...well...i'll leave it there

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
    John - I have no desire nor intention of getting embroilled in any kind of arguement regarding the above.

    I'll accept your arguement, I don't agree with it, but that really doesn't matter. However I certainly would not post such things as... its your kind of comment that makes me despair.

    I really do not see how that type of thing furthers good debate, which I thought, perhaps naively, was what this forum was all about.

    If the likes of yourself are unable to resist making such comments, others will simply see it as a green light to be even more disrespectful.

    Jemtom, sorry, but I've got to side with John on this. He has said nothing abusive about you, all he has done is to explain how he reacts to what you have said. This may or may not be a legitimate reaction in the eyes of others, but it is certainly not a slur on you. He is, as we all are, perfectly within his rights to despair. What's more, he's explained, with evidence, why he's despairing: you've made an assertion based on one aspect of the forecast; he's explained why that is too narrow a view.

    These arguments come up every year. The reality is that at distance, the greater the attempted precision, the more frequently you are going to be incorrect in your forecast, and the greater will be the actual perceived error. It is a good rule in both measurement and forecasting NOT to attempt to give a definition greater than your toolset allows.

    Perhaps you would further the argument a little if you were to give an example of the type of definition you'd like to see in the seasonal forecast.

    Is it a good debate though JT?

    My wife once told me, if you dont have anything nice to say, why say anything at all.

    Of course, you could mean a good analysis, but to do that, you would need to do so after the event. To debate, you need facts.

    Why complain about a free sample of food? It was free, and it was your choice to eat it.

    Why complain about a free forecast? It was free, and it was your choice to read it.

    To criticise...well...i'll leave it there

    Fair words. It is easier to knock down than it is to build.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Can't see anything wrong with the forecast. It's as clear and concise as it can be. Remember we struggle to get the detail right five to six days ahead or expecting a detailed LRF is just plain silly.

    Now if they said something like rainfall would be either above average or below average you'd have grounds to complain.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

    To be honest, the MetOffice have given a fair forecast as they can, providing that in all honesty, they dont really have a clue, but they have an idea of what is more or less likely. Detail is out of the question.

    This in turn gives rise to the question; is it even worth making a seasonal forecast?

    I bet I can guess the forecast for next summer by the MetOfiice......

    Temperature

    This summer (2008) is expected to average or warmer than average, and is generally expected to be warmer than last summer (2007). Some hot periods are likely at times.

    Precipitation is likely to be around average, yet some very dry periods may occur. This summer is generally expected to be drier than last summer which was one of the wettest on record.

    Take my word for it! It won't be far off that when the MetOffice release their forecast in April/May

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • 4 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
    Updated 20 December 2007

    Latest information from our seasonal prediction methods supports the forecast issued in November for the full winter season (December to February). This update for the remainder of Winter 2007/8 is therefore little changed from the forecast issued last month.

    Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages. Winter 2006/7 was the second warmest on record for the UK, with well-above-average rainfall.

    Forecast for the remainder of Winter 2007/8

    Temperature

    Mean temperatures for the remainder of the winter period are more likely to be above normal than below normal over much of Europe. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are higher for northern Europe than for some central and southern regions, where there is more uncertainty.

    For the UK as a whole, mean temperatures are more likely to be above normal than either near or below normal. Although temperatures above the 1971-2000 average are favoured, it is likely to be less mild overall than last year.

    Precipitation

    Above-average rainfall is more likely than below-average rainfall across northern Europe. In contrast, for southern Europe below-average rainfall is more likely than above average.

    For the UK as a whole, rainfall is slightly more likely to be near, or above average, than below average.

    Updates and reviews of the forecast

    A monthly appraisal of the winter so far will start in early January 2008, and a final forecast update will be issued at 10 a.m. on 23 January 2008.

    From: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...07_8/index.html

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

    Hopefully, we will get at least a couple of wintry outbreaks throughout January and February. Although I very much doubt we'll get anything sustained. I have a feeling that February maybe generally mild and wet this year.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...