Member's Winter Forecasts

[swfc]

This winter will be talked about in similar terms to the winter of 62-63....though it won't be as extreme.

It will be renowned for the energy crisis that develops during it as a result and will be a lesson as to just how unprepared we are to cope with a winter of this type these days..."Will it snow in Sheffield then".

Edited December 7, 2007 by swfc

[Timmytour]

(adopts voice of the dog in the Churchill Insurance adverts)

Ohhhhh yeesss!

[Damien]

This winter will be talked about in similar terms to the winter of 62-63....though it won't be as extreme.

It will be renowned for the energy crisis that develops during it as a result and will be a lesson as to just how unprepared we are to cope with a winter of this type these days...

(adopts voice of the dog in the Churchill Insurance adverts)

Ohhhhh yeesss!

Laughable. Just laughable. All this talk of global warming going on and you sit there talking about snow. Are you looking for the way to your nearest local comedy club but couldn't find it and/or got kicked out?

Remember: less days at work lost due to snow. The sad reality we face - and, indeed, the sick mind of a capitalist.

"Sick and tried... of always being sick and tired..."

[paul tall]

This winter will be talked about in similar terms to the winter of 62-63....though it won't be as extreme.

It will be renowned for the energy crisis that develops during it as a result and will be a lesson as to just how unprepared we are to cope with a winter of this type these days...

And "they" will blame it, of course, on global warming and ask for more research grants.

Heatwave - global warming. Constantly above average months - global warming (fair enough, it is evidence of GW). But its the rest that gets on my wick.....Gales - global warming. Tornado seen in Pembrokeshire - global warming. Floods - global yawning, I mean warming. Severe cold snap like we haven't had for 20 years? - global warming? You bet!

[Damien]

And "they" will blame it, of course, on global warming and ask for more research grants.

Heatwave - global warming. Constantly above average months - global warming (fair enough, it is evidence of GW). But its the rest that gets on my wick.....Gales - global warming. Tornado seen in Pembrokeshire - global warming. Floods - global yawning, I mean warming. Severe cold snap like we haven't had for 20 years? - global warming? You bet!

Extreme rainfall - greenhouse; drought (inc. in the UK) - greenhouse. That one's the strangest to me. (Oh, and, of course, how a small crisp packet (yes, I do - and would of course encourage others to do so - put mine in the bin and recycle) lying there in the grass just by the side of the road could possibly be warming up the world by just lying there? I suppose the packets of crisps in my cupboard are also causing greenhouse gasses(2) - right? )

Don't believe the hype. Emissions deffo crisp packets - not sure....

[Snowyowl9]

That one's the strangest to me. (Oh, and, of course, how a small crisp packet (yes, I do - I suppose the packets of crisps in my cupboard are also causing greenhouse gasses(2) - right? :lol: )

Don't believe the hype. Emissions deffo crisp packets - not sure....

That was last years storm which never happened the crisp packet is still in tact somewhere. :lol:

All I want again is a winter chart like this again this year preferably with the feb to follow. awesome feb.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Time to chuck this in to be read before it gets moved If it does have a read in the internet forecast section. My monthly forecast made 23/11

Week 1

A Scandi HP will be in place with LP to the west winds variable S'ly, SE'ly and SW'ly quite cold/chilly in the SE but less so in the west and North. During the first week the LP will will try and assert its influence hence the variable wind direction and temps will slightly increase as they turn more SW'ly. This is where height rises over Svalbard region come in as it will prevent the LP swinging NE to that region. Rain will edge in from the west and this to-ing and fro-ing will be the general theme.

Week 2

The Scandi HP will form a link with a GHP and winds will be more SE'ly so feeling pretty cool. LP and fronts still affecting western half of the UK with snow over the Scottish mountains. Pressure remains high to the N and NE and becoming cold in Scotland but milder in the south. Period of 10-14 is period of peak energy and a deep area of LP will bring a spell of wet and very windy weather to all areas and pushes the cold weather away NE and a milder few days set in with temps around 10-12c in the south. This spell will be mostly felt in the heart of the UK [CET zone] southwards and it is likely to push through the UK and as it does so winds veer to N/NE'ly bringing the cold air NE of the UK southwards.

Week 3

A cold week for all as the winds are NE'ly affecting the whole of the UK as the LP sinks south into the near continent with snow showers penetrating inland from the east until a HP ridge nudges/topples in and settles things down bringing cold and frosty nights as the week comes to a close. A rebuilding HP in the southern Scandinavia region absorbs the ridge as it begins to retrogress NW and winds turn easterly. Raw and cold SE'ly winds set in over the southern UK as the pressure builds over Greenland and the Atlantic gets held at bay as the GHP ridges south.

Week 4

This sets up a very interesting approach to Christmas as another period of peak energy approaches betwen 24-30. With blocking in place LPs can only approach the UK from the SW. A strong LP will approach and bring a period of wet and windy weather with snow turning to rain as it makes inroads to the UK. However, the blocking will not be shifted and a wave of LPs will try to make inroads with each becoming slightly more intense and very wintry weather will affect north of say the M4 so a potential white Christmas for these areas northwards but more likely Pennines north for 'snow hotspots', southern counties although cold will be wet as the milder air makes inroads.

It is around the 28th when the strongest LP will affect the UK but blocking to the north is very strong and established and very strong/gale force SE'ly winds affect the south west and south of the UK. However, there is only one way for this LP to go...eastwards

Progressively getting colder with a mild interlude mid month and very cold approach to the New Year so CET around 3.5 TO 4.5c. I am confident of the strom potential and the way the arctic is setting itself up I think the storm potential is more likely for the southern areas than the north as I think blocking in the right place is evidencing itself.

regards

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Progressively getting colder so CET around 3.5 TO 4.5c. I am confident of the storm potential and the way the arctic is setting itself up I think the storm potential is more likely for the southern areas than the north as I think blocking in the right place is evidencing itself.

regards

BFTP

Edited December 24, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Progressively getting colder so CET around 3.5 TO 4.5c. I am confident of the storm potential and the way the arctic is setting itself up I think the storm potential is more likely for the southern areas than the north as I think blocking in the right place is evidencing itself.

regards

BFTP

Ok folks now onto my January Thoughts as Dec has faired pretty well. I'll start with a bit of late Dec as it is a little different to thought but Christmas Day/Boxing Day should see a period of wet and localised windy weather with a little LP shortwave crossing from the SW. LPs attack from the Atlantic on W to E direction with gale force winds for late 28th into 29th with squally showers being a theme. This is where signs will tentatively show of the impending change similar to but more pronounced than Dec was. HP will try to ridge up behind this LP bringing a NNW'ly but this will not make it to anything this time.

Week 1

LPs will make inroads across the UK on a WNW to ESE tilt and there will be signs of pressure rise to our far NE. HP will try to ridge up to form an Atlantic block but will be over powered by strong LP that crosses the UK on NW to SE axis, HP to the NE sending a ridge SW into Norway. The first week starting average to mild but getting cooler and feeling chilly in the wet and windy weather. Temps of 6-9c intially but falling gradually as the week goes on.

Week 2

As the LP [6-8 Jan] crosses which will be of gale to severe gale force winds affetcing the heart of the UK southwards [This is an event LP and could bring a strong snow event on its back end but the wind will be the main player and is a pattern changer] HP from the Azores will arc up behind this with a northerly and NE'ly following. This will tend to ridge NE making a link with the HP to our NE [AN ARCTIC HP]. This allows the bitterly cold air from the NE to advect westwards into the UK. By the end of the week temps will struggle to -2c to +1c

Week 3

HP to our NE now in control which has moved WSW to bring in a strong easterly flow to the UK. This has brought very cold and snowy for the east weather. A very very cold week with ice days felt widely across the UK. HP looks to ridge NW towards the UK as the week comes to a close.

Week 4

Very deep LP approaches/swings in from the SW meeting this block. No true GHP in place as the blocking remains volatile. However, the air over the UK is freezing and as the two meet....a memorable month comes to a close with milder/less cold air breaking the block down.

CET 2C

BFTP

Won't let me edit so to clarify a few points...week three HP looks to ridge NW to Greenland NOT the UK. CET adjustment with range from 1.5c to 3c. Block at end of the month could give way quickly but not before atrocious conditions are experienced.

BFTP

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi BFTP,

As a fellow south-easterner I'd take that now mate! Really hope that comes off for you, I feel that January might well surprise a few people.

It wouldnt be before time would it! It might make working in Croydon a little bit more palatable, if theres a bit of the white stuff about! B)

Who knows Redhill might become Whitehill.

Merry Xmas,

Tom.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi BFTP,

As a fellow south-easterner I'd take that now mate! Really hope that comes off for you, I feel that January might well surprise a few people.

It wouldnt be before time would it! It might make working in Croydon a little bit more palatable, if theres a bit of the white stuff about! B)

Who knows Redhill might become Whitehill.

Merry Xmas,

Tom.

Thanks Tom

I know Croydon very well...I work in T Heath

Merry Christmas and to ALL NW MEMBERS

Regards

BFTP..aka Fred

[Optimus Prime]

Ok my January forecast, really a total guewss but I did look at some historic charts like normal, this is what I could come up with;

Week 1;

High pressure close to the UK towards the end of December with become a feature at the start of January, initially bringing dry and quite cold conditions the HP may well move NE towards Scandinavia producing a more NE flow, possibly bringing snow showers towards the east with temperatures well below normal. CET -0.5c Week 1

Week 2; Another cold week with High pressure moving over the UK. More frost but the air will generally be dry of the continent so fog shouldn't be a problem. Turning more unsettled towards the north with some rain/sleet. Cloud increasing across England and milder. CET Week 2 2.4c

Week 3; Cold start across England but a more mobile pattern may set in from the north bringing rain and gales to all parts, possibly some snow during the transitional change. After a very mild westerly flow the winds may change more to a North Westerly bringing snow showers to Scotland and Northern Ireland. Dry and bright further south and remaining rather mild but with a cold wind. CET Week 3 5.8c

Week 4; After a brief North/North Westerly spell HP will once more build, this time from the South bringing with it dry but very mild weather for most of the remainder of this period. LP systems giving the North some rather wet weather at times. Last few days low pressure systems may well track South Eastwards giving way to a cold Northerly wind across all areas with snow and frosts returning. CET Week 4 6.3c

Overall CET range; 3.5c-4.4c

[The PIT]

Okay lets see how wrong I can get it.

Jan will start mild and wet. Winds coming from the west but will not be as strong or as mild as last year. Most of the rainfall once again being in the north and west with only small amounts being recorded in the south eastern areas. This will continue into the 2nd week however high pressure will begin to build from the south west bringing Brighter Sunnier weather although with frost and fog patches at night.

Third week The high drifts east bringing cooler air from continent and frosts getting more widespread. The sunshine will become more confined to the west as cloudier conditions spread in from the east. Towards the end of the third week light snow flurries may effect the eastern coasts as the Atlantic starts to push in from the SW.

Towards the end of the third week the Atlantic re-asserts itself and rain pushes in from the Southwest possibly proceeded by freezing rain and some Snow in Northern England and Scotland. This heralds a warm showery breezy end to the month.

Temps overall just above average. Rainfall above in Scotland Northern Ireland Average over most of the UK below in the South East. Sunshine around average. Snow very rare once again I'm afraid.

[Rollo]

Here goes,The month starts changeable and on the mild side and this type will last till around the 12th when high pressure should settle over the country giving sharp frosts and rather cold days,I would expect this spell to last for the best part of 10 days at which point pressure rises to our North East will envelop the remains of our high and cold east winds will dominate the weather,mainly dry at first but becoming increasingly snowy towards the month end.

[swfc]

No reason to alter my oringinal winter thoughts. The blocked pattern that I anticipated at the start of the month came later although the mobile pattern I expected for the Xmas/New Year is on track.

December is often the coldest month in a La Nina winter in the christmas pudding and I would expect no different this time.

Merry xmas. B) B)

Oh just to see a snowflake.

Only joking IB.For me ill go for an average jan temp wise with some stormy conditions and quite wet.Feb hopefully brings something colder and more wintry but again i suspect a dry cool month could be on the cards.As for march i think it could be our best winter month regarding cold and snowy conditions.Just a hunch but its probably as good as gfs.Ok ill get me coat. .Merry Xmas to everyone and a freezing new year.

Edited December 24, 2007 by swfc

[Marduk]

I think of a -3,5'c for me which is the normal 1960-1990 for my part of the country and since England is like 7'c warmer in winter i believe in a CET: -3,5+7 = 3,5'c!

Edited December 24, 2007 by Sillkalven

[DAVID SNOW]

To be honest, dont have a clue, that said perhaps mid to late feb, into early march for some wintry stuff. Merry christmas to you all,bar.....1 B) B)

[Gavin P]

Excellent forecast from BlastFromThe Past. I'll post mie in a day or so, but just to say, we've definatly on the same wavelength regarding January. B)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Excellent forecast from BlastFromThe Past. I'll post mie in a day or so, but just to say, we've definatly on the same wavelength regarding January.

HI Gav

A big plus on this forum is your thoughts. Keep it up and thanks for support in idea.....proof is in the pudding as we say!!!

BFTP

[Steady Easterly]

No reason to alter my oringinal winter thoughts. The blocked pattern that I anticipated at the start of the month came later although the mobile pattern I expected for the Xmas/New Year is on track.

December is often the coldest month in a La Nina winter in the christmas pudding and I would expect no different this time.

Well that makes a refreshing change, sorry couldnt resist Mr Brown.

[Peter Henderson]

This winter is turning out to be another very mild snowless one yet again. Not quite as mild as last year (we've had a few more frosts so far) but fairly warm nonetheless. Even last week frost here was non-existent. So far, not even a flake of snow. The main difference, as I see it, from last year is that central and eastern Europe are very cold at the moment so a subtle change in the weather pattern could bring in some very cold air very quickly. However, judging by all the long range charts:

http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/nwp.htm

the BBC's monthly outlook:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

This would appear to be highly unlikely.

Still, anything can happen with the British weather. The winter of 1946/1947 didn't really get going until the last week in January 1947:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...ter1946-47.html

and even in my lifetime I've witnessed mainly mild winters with snow only ocurring at the end of January/February (1972/1973 was one example, 1993/1994 another). I continually live in hope then, although I'm not optimistic.

Edited December 26, 2007 by Peter Henderson

[cheeky_monkey]

Still, anything can happen with the British weather. The winter of 1946/1947 didn't really get going until the last week in January 1947:

ive heard this quote every january for as many jans as i can remember....

[Peter Henderson]

As one of my ex work colleagues used to say "One never knows, does one"

The two winters I've quoted did have snow at the end of the season though. On Mon. 29th of Jan 1973 a low pressure system tracked just to the North of Scotland. This dragged in very cold North Westerly winds which originated in polar regions. NI had frequent heavy/prolonged snow showers for 4 days (the heaviest snow since Jan/Feb. 1969) with at least 6-9 inches of lying snow (and more) in most regions of the province. All of December and most of January (apart from the last few days) was mild Southwesterlies. Feb. that year was also mostly mild.

1993/94 was the same although the cold air came from the East this time. A very mild Dec./Jan. but with a prolonged cold spell (several weeks) accompanied by some heavy snow at the end of Jan./start of Feb. Another winter that was similar was 1977/78 (snow unexpectedly at the start of Feb.) so you can never tell at this stage. I'm not optimistic though, and it would appear this one is turning out to be another winter that is depressingly mild and wet.

Still, looking on the bright side, at least my central heating isn't on as much as it might be which is a good thing considering the price of oil at present (over £400 for 1,000 litres )

Edited December 27, 2007 by Peter Henderson

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well the ECM, GFS etc seem to like my thoughts.....maybe there's something from above calling the shots

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Progressively getting colder so CET around 3.5 TO 4.5c. I am confident of the storm potential and the way the arctic is setting itself up I think the storm potential is more likely for the southern areas than the north as I think blocking in the right place is evidencing itself.

regards

BFTP

Ok folks now onto my January Thoughts as Dec has faired pretty well. I'll start with a bit of late Dec as it is a little different to thought but Christmas Day/Boxing Day should see a period of wet and localised windy weather with a little LP shortwave crossing from the SW. LPs attack from the Atlantic on W to E direction with gale force winds for late 28th into 29th with squally showers being a theme. This is where signs will tentatively show of the impending change similar to but more pronounced than Dec was. HP will try to ridge up behind this LP bringing a NNW'ly but this will not make it to anything this time.

Week 1

LPs will make inroads across the UK on a WNW to ESE tilt and there will be signs of pressure rise to our far NE. HP will try to ridge up to form an Atlantic block but will be over powered by strong LP that crosses the UK on NW to SE axis, HP to the NE sending a ridge SW into Norway. The first week starting average to mild but getting cooler and feeling chilly in the wet and windy weather. Temps of 6-9c intially but falling gradually as the week goes on.

Week 2

As the LP [6-8 Jan] crosses which will be of gale to severe gale force winds affetcing the heart of the UK southwards [This is an event LP and could bring a strong snow event on its back end but the wind will be the main player and is a pattern changer] HP from the Azores will arc up behind this with a northerly and NE'ly following. This will tend to ridge NE making a link with the HP to our NE [AN ARCTIC HP]. This allows the bitterly cold air from the NE to advect westwards into the UK. By the end of the week temps will struggle to -2c to +1c

Week 3

HP to our NE now in control which has moved WSW to bring in a strong easterly flow to the UK. This has brought very cold and snowy for the east weather. A very very cold week with ice days felt widely across the UK. HP looks to ridge NW towards the UK as the week comes to a close.

Week 4

Very deep LP approaches/swings in from the SW meeting this block. No true GHP in place as the blocking remains volatile. However, the air over the UK is freezing and as the two meet....a memorable month comes to a close with milder/less cold air breaking the block down.

CET 2C

BFTP

Time for update.

The bitterly cold outbreak looked like setting up and touched us but then retreated away hence why Iran, Iraq etc have been newsworthy with the bitter cold. Shame we were very close but the fact that the HP to our NE set up at very beginning of Jan concerned me and concerns were well met.

Now hope isn't all lost as 20-23 is strom peak potential andis another pattern changing possible and here are my current thoughts and re-analysis.

12-18th January 2008

Low pressure still the driving Force early in the period with severe gales for Monday/Tuesday particularly for the south with very heavy rain and as this clears away another wave for Thursday and so it looks like Cool Zonality with North West winds. Temperatures will be average for overall for January. End ofthe week could see the tentative signs of a pattern change.

19-25th January 2009

This is a transitionary week and could be crucial for the outcome for the rest winter but certainly Jan early Feb. Pressure will start to rise and build to the north of the Uk after another LP bringing very strong W to NW winds. This LP bumps into the very large and stable block to our east and pressure rises behind this trying to link with GHP which doesn't really develop. The HP that has been sitting over the far east starts to retrograde westwards and pressure rises quite smartly up to our NE. This will bring a calmer and much drier week dominated by an increasingly SE'LY flow which will be good news after this week.

26-31st Jan 2008

HP to our NE gets its act together and the continent is again very cold and the flow becomes more of an easterly around about 27/8 they turn slightly more NE'ly as LP slips SE into the continent increasing the precipitation chances for the east and SE. This could be a good 7-10 day cold event.

A little nagging I have is the LP progged for around 20th, there is a chance this bumps into the east block too far north in Scandinavia and prevents any HP build behind linking with the east block which tries to move westwards. HP sinks over the top of the UK and remains in situ fo last 7-10 days.

BFTP