Tropical Cyclone Dama

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm 07S (soon to be Dama) has formed in the central south indian ocean. Conditions are favourable for further strengthening as an upper level high enhances the outflow from the storm, and sea temps remain pretty high on it's track. The JTWC currently estimate the intensity to be 45kt, up from 35kt in the last advisory. The track is fairly compicated, and was been influenced by a disturbance to the north which has since dissapated. 07S will push generally southward before a more pronounced southeastward turn in response to a strengthening ridge to the east. If this motion becomes established the storm could well move out of the La Reunion's area of responsibilty into the Perth region of responsibility. The storm is currently no threat to land but it could become strong if favourable conditions continue.

Satellite image (Dama is in the centre-south of the image, and downgraded Tropical Depression Celina is to the far southwest):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

[Somerset Squall]

Dama is now racing southeastwards and has strengthened to 50 kts. On this track, Dama will soon meet drier air and cooler sea temps which will initiate extratropical transition by 36 hrs, which Dama will probably complete by 48 hrs.