Yet another year of exceptional global warmth

[Bobby]

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/12/12/105126/02

Through the first 11 months, 2007 is the second warmest year in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean has entered the cool phase of its natural El Niño -- La Niña cycle.

... barring the unlikely event of a large volcanic eruption, a record global temperature exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next 2-3 years.

But couldn't this all be the sun going through a phase of high solar radiation, a favorite explanation of those who deny that human-generated greenhouse gases are the primary cause of warming? No. As NASA explains:

The sun is another source of natural global temperature variability. Figure 3, based on an analysis of satellite measurements by Richard Willson, shows that 2007 is at the minimum of the current 10-11 year solar cycle. Another analysis of the satellite data (not illustrated here), by Judith Lean, has the 2007 solar irradiance minimum slightly lower than the two prior minima in the satellite era.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/2...mateupdate.html

Including 2007, seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1997. The global average surface temperature has risen between 0.6°C and 0.7°C since the start of the twentieth century, and the rate of increase since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century-scale trend.

I think it's safe to say there are no signs of a cool down yet.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for your efforts digging all this up Magpie.

I note from my observations that the Weddell sea is becoming increasingly ice clear this southern summer. I really think that the 'Argo' bouys data on depth of ocean warming is now being 'transferred ' to land/atmosphere and there is an awful lot of energy stored up in our oceans!

[Devonian]

Yup, thanks for finding that Magpie, it's an interesting read.

It is really amazing, given the La Nina building over recent months, how warm 2007 has been. Fwiw, I think their reasoning that we'll see another record warm year soon is sound.

[Bobby]

I don't think I'm going to debate anymore as it doesn't seem to work, just lay out the data instead and let everyone make their own minds up.

[PersianPaladin]

I don't think I'm going to debate anymore as it doesn't seem to work, just lay out the data instead and let everyone make their own minds up.

Hard to disagree with the data Magpie.

Thanks for the post....sombre reading.

[RedShift]

A tiny part of the world i know, but despite much chitter-chatter on here about CET cooldowns, it's going to take a cold December for Scotland not to record its warmest year on record (i.e. Areal series, since 1914) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...cs/scottemp.txt

Warmest year on record was erm...last year at 8.26, which is 1.06 above 71-00 mean and 1.29 above 61-90 mean. After 11 months this time last year we were at 94.2 cumulative degrees, after 11 months this year we are at 94.8 cumulative degrees, but this December certainly colder than last December, will be interesting to see.

[noggin]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle...a/HadCRUT3.html

But these MetO graphs (see link) don't seem to show continued warming. They look to me like they show a peak in 1999 and a plateauing with perhaps the first little signs of a slowdown.

[Calrissian]

The graph says it all.

We're all frakked. Once the next El nino cycle changes...and another 5-6 years during the next solar cycle (2012)... a CET of 12 in the UK will be the case.

Even a blind man would find it hard to dispute that graph's overwhelming trend for global warming.

[Gray-Wolf]

La-Nina is supposed to fade in the spring. If we see it 'intensify/maintain' then I would very much suspect that my observations last year of a 'meltwater pulse' flowing out of the Ross Sea whose 'cold water upwelling' helped overthrow the then El-Nino were correct.

If we see this occur then we have to start thinking about what volumes of water we are talking about and their impact on both ocean circulation and ocean height.

The first IPCC report had the southern continents input to sea level change as negligible (as it wouldn't melt) in 2001 the estimate was 15% of the then sea level increase was from Antarctica. There seems to be yet another 'pattern' of under-reporting the change emerging (as with the Arctic).

The 'heat' sapped away in the process of 'melting' will eventually not be 'sapped away' as the ice melts and we will have another sudden 'spike' in global temp rises.

Edited December 21, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Guest Daniel]

Thanks for your efforts digging all this up Magpie.

You will, you understand, still be innundated with the " I need 100% proof positive before I commit" brigade but don't allow that vocal minority to put you off in your efforts to enlighten!

I note from my observations that the Weddell sea is becoming increasingly ice clear this southern summer. I really think that the 'Argo' bouys data on depth of ocean warming is now being 'transferred ' to land/atmosphere and there is an awful lot of energy stored up in our oceans!

I Still think that the warming we seen has been natrual rarther than man made as many like to point out. The sun is going into a major quite period over the next 10 years or even longer and this will lead to major cooling on earth in the long term and have an major inpact on our climate as well. Yes there no dobt that the first 7 years of the new century have been the warmest on record but this has come after a century of natrual warming after the cold of the last little iceage. I strongly believe that we in the U.K will see a major cooling over the next 10 years due to a quiter sun. We will see on average much colder winters and cooler summers. there even a small change by around 2020 we could see another 1683/84 style winter. I also wish to point out trends in climate can change very fast in the spase of 1 year. the best example of this is 1315. after the long medical warm spell that summer was said to the coldest and wettest in history causing mass starvation as crops failed. this occured after a long run of warm hot summers in England allowing grape vines to grow in ease. after that year our climate never been the same. another example is 1740. the 1730s saw a row of winters as mild as what we have now. yet 1740 gave us the secound coldest winter in recorded temp history and the year 170 was one of the coldest on record. after that again our climate was much coller for a long time. much near to our time is 1940. After that severe winter of 1895 there was no true severe winter until 1940 in England and the first 40 saw a slow warming trend in England much as what we have been having. then out the blue came Jan 1940 It was the coldest month since feb 1895 and the secound coldest of the 20th century after 1963. It also had a brutal ice and snow storm. the mean that month was -1.5. Yet this happened after a long warming up. So what I am saying is that another cold spell is just around the corner and can happen with out warning. those of you on NEt weather Extra will see that there 9 month forcast modle is showing a much colder summer next year in the warmest part of the U.K the south east.

[Hiya]

A tiny part of the world i know, but despite much chitter-chatter on here about CET cooldowns, it's going to take a cold December for Scotland not to record its warmest year on record (i.e. Areal series, since 1914) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...cs/scottemp.txt

Warmest year on record was erm...last year at 8.26, which is 1.06 above 71-00 mean and 1.29 above 61-90 mean. After 11 months this time last year we were at 94.2 cumulative degrees, after 11 months this year we are at 94.8 cumulative degrees, but this December certainly colder than last December, will be interesting to see.

I don't think Scotland will get a record high year, December is sitting on about 3.0*C now and we'd have to get 4.32*C to break the record. The exceptional mild in the first third of December has keep the mean rather high. You have got a point though, to be even thinking about the record after some firmly below average months since May is astonishing.

[Bobby]

The sun is going into a major quite period over the next 10 years

If you look at the graph I posted it shows it's actually going to heat up in the next 10 years as we are at the bottom of the solar cycle.

[laserguy]

I Still think that the warming we seen has been natrual rarther than man made as many like to point out. The sun is going into a major quite period over the next 10 years or even longer and this will lead to major cooling on earth in the long term and have an major inpact on our climate as well.

..........

Daniel I broadly get where you're coming from but AGW is so ingrained in the minds of many that any other factors can't get a look-in,whether they are happening now or waiting to happen. Seems that an increase of atmospheric CO2 by 0.0000003% or whatever figure is currently being bandied about is enough to outweigh/override minute(yet to us unimaginably massive) solar output variations,orbital vagaries,changes within the Earth etc,etc. Trust me on this one,the sun could cease nuclear fusion right now or go supernova and the result would be caused by carbon emissions .

As always I'm prepared for hysterical responses to that,as if I'd grievously insulted a family member or something. It does make you wonder... As is the way of human nature though we have to simply find the blame for something,even when nothing unusual is amiss. It just seems that way as our climate happens to be on the move while we're here to witness it.

With regard to air and sea temps. It is far more plausible for a warming of the oceans to transmit any anomolous heat to the thin skin of air (six miles deep approx,for all intents and puposes) above it,rather than the atmosphere transmitting some of it's thermal energy to the oceans. Already I can hear the rustling of the pages of SF's '1001 Analogies For Any Event And Occasion' to counter this,but a bathful of warm water would heat the air above it far more effectively than a warm ambient bathroom air temp would heat a cold tub! And that's before considering the relative volumetric differences re oceans/atmosphere and bathroom/bathtub. The commonsense (anyone remember that? ) conclusion is that heating is occuring via the oceans and not vice versa. Why would oceans warm? Undersea vulcanism has all but been ruled out in the pursuit of nailing AGW but it is folly to presume we've got a handle on what's really going on in the unknown depths. Much of the Earth's core is presumed ( I emphasise presume, has anyone been there??) to be semi molten iron and thus highly responsive to changing solar magnetism,and quite probably by influences from further afield than we are aware.

I've started to take more of a back seat in all this rather than get so involved. Just like the AGWers I am fed up of 'headbanging' (though still partial to a bit of Iron Maiden,Zep etc!). As they say,time will indeed tell. I'm losing interest mainly because of one inescapable fact which is this,and it's been said countless times but apparently doesn't register: the role of CO2 in climate is utterly irrelevant because anyone who sincerely believes that there is any way for emissions to go other than relentlessly skywards is deluding themselves big time. They can have as many jamborees in Bali (why not Greenland?) as they like,impose taxes at will in the name of climate change,hell even force tv makers to not fit stanby LED's! But the only way is up,until....?

[noggin]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle...a/HadCRUT3.html

But these MetO graphs (see link) don't seem to show continued warming. They look to me like they show a peak in 1999 and a plateauing with perhaps the first little signs of a slowdown.

Perhaps I should have asked, when originally posting this link, if anyone would care to comment on what the graphs are showing?

Anybody?

BTW, Magpie , isn't your thread title just a teensy-weensy bit tabloidesque? Not a red-top journalist are you?!

[Guest Daniel]

If you look at the graph I posted it shows it's actually going to heat up in the next 10 years as we are at the bottom of the solar cycle.

We Shall see. If you look at iceage now site you will see many articals about the comming Global cooling. As For Us At present I really do think that over the next 10 years we shall cool down and this could begin at any time now. In Some months it has already began. For exaple there has not been a true hot August in England since 2003 and apart from July 2006 even these months have been cooler. The Net weather forcats modles at Present seem to show that next summer will be a cold one with well below averages Temps. This is against global warming trends for summer in England. There A good chance in the next 10 years we will see bitter cold winters as cold as the worst ones of the 20th century. Like I pointed out cold can start with in a year and with out warning.

[Devonian]

..........

Daniel I broadly get where you're coming from but AGW is so ingrained in the minds of many that any other factors can't get a look-in,whether they are happening now or waiting to happen. Seems that an increase of atmospheric CO2 by 0.0000003% or whatever figure is currently being bandied about is enough to outweigh/override minute(yet to us unimaginably massive) solar output variations,orbital vagaries,changes within the Earth etc,etc. Trust me on this one,the sun could cease nuclear fusion right now or go supernova and the result would be caused by carbon emissions .

Actually...I would say every one of us would agree that the Sun warms Earth from something close to absolute zero to about -18C, greenhouse gasses warm it further to about 14/15C. Where us dreadful 'ingrained' warmers differ is we think the changes mankind is causing might add 2-4C on top of that - or a whopping, scaremongering/alarmist/hysterical (three for you to pick from ) 1 to 2% of the total. Yes 1/2% additional warming. why is it so inconceivable humanity, with it's is so obvious effects on the whole planet, might have that effect?

As always I'm prepared for hysterical responses to that,as if I'd grievously insulted a family member or something. ...

No hysteria, indeed, nothing else.

[West is Best]

I think it's safe to say there are no signs of a cool down yet.

Try the Central Englans Temperature Series - the oldest in the world, and therefore a good indicator of the micro-climatic effects of macro-climatic drivers. The last 6 months shows a marked cooldown, and the NH generally is experiencing a cold start to winter with temps anomalously low.

By the way, would be good to have the original NASA source for this rather than a biased blog.

Perhaps I should have asked, when originally posting this link, if anyone would care to comment on what the graphs are showing?

Anybody?

Yes, allow me.

The graphs show irrefutable signs of a cooldown since 1999, as more and more people are starting to realise.

[Gray-Wolf]

Try the Central England Temperature Series - the oldest in the world, and therefore a good indicator of the micro-climatic effects of macro-climatic drivers. The last 6 months shows a marked cool down, and the NH generally is experiencing a cold start to winter with temps anomalously low.

By the way, would be good to have the original NASA source for this rather than a biased blog.

Yes, allow me.

The graphs show irrefutable signs of a cool down since 1999, as more and more people are starting to realise.

Which explains the +15c anoms over the arctic this summer and the record ice loss (whose 'grounded' sections outflowed through Greenland/Sweden giving the T.m. air masses added impetus to precipitate out their cargo over June/July/Aug in our neck of the woods!

With the coldest parts of the globe warming rapidly then the temporary 'displacement' of cold is to be expected.....is it not?

[Red Raven]

We Shall see. If you look at iceage now site you will see many articals about the comming Global cooling. As For Us At present I really do think that over the next 10 years we shall cool down and this could begin at any time now. In Some months it has already began. For exaple there has not been a true hot August in England since 2003 and apart from July 2006 even these months have been cooler. The Net weather forcats modles at Present seem to show that next summer will be a cold one with well below averages Temps. This is against global warming trends for summer in England. There A good chance in the next 10 years we will see bitter cold winters as cold as the worst ones of the 20th century. Like I pointed out cold can start with in a year and with out warning.

I'm certainly no expert in data analysis but if you look at the graph i have produced using the Manley data set updated with the PARKER AND HORTON data (all taken straight from the MET office web site).

The earliest year is 1659 and latest 2006, as you can see with a simple linear trend line applied the trend is up. I cant see how the data can show anything other than a continual increase in mean temperatures for the CET area.

[Nick H]

The graphs show irrefutable signs of a cooldown since 1999, as more and more people are starting to realise.

1998: 0.52C (above the 1961-1990 average)

2005: 0.48C

2003: 0.46C

2002: 0.46C

2004: 0.43C

2006: 0.42C

2007 (provisional): 0.41C

2001: 0.40C

1997: 0.36C

1995: 0.28C

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7142694.stm

Sorry, but how is the fact that seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since the end of 2000 (including every year since and including 2001), indicative of a cooldown since 1999? 1999 isn't even on the list!

Edited December 21, 2007 by Nick H

[West is Best]

Sorry, but how ... indicative of a cooldown since 1999?

[Nick H]

Thank you. So how does that square with the fact that every year since 2000 has been warmer than 1999? Sincere question by the way. I am just a tax consultant, I am not a scientist, still least a statistician.

Edited December 21, 2007 by Nick H

[Bobby]

There are other data sets of global temperatures, just look at my links.

It only looks like a plateau on that MetO graph because of the exceptional El Nino spike in 1998. The fact that 7 of the warmest 8 years on record have been since 2000 tells the real story. The warmest 2 year period since the CET began for us in the UK was in 2005-2006, the last 2 years. I think if 2007 is included it will probably be the warmest 3 year period ever.

[Stratos Ferric]

You'd have to be seriously delusional to suggest that that graph shows cooling. Time and again we make the observation that climate oscillates with an inter-annual amplitude far greater than any long term rate of change. Noggin persistently argues as if the fact that 1999 was the warmest year on record is proof that temperatures have spiked. It OUGHT to have been a warm year because of the Nino that year, just like JUly ought always to be warmer than December.

The real measure of change is to compare any year with one twn or twenty or thrity years previously, hence why statisticians use moving averages - it smooths out the variations that occur from one year to the next, and reveals the true current pattern.

There is NO period in the CET record during which so few years have come under either the mark set 10, 20 or 30 years previously. Since 1988 there have been only 8 such instances. For us to be hollering legitimately, rather than fancifully, about cooling we'd need to be seeing year after year of downtrend in the mean.

I am reminded of the discussion with SM and the correspondent who used to be called Tamara, only a couple of years ago, and the frothy excitement of having four years on the trot of falling temperatures. Some fall.

Wishful thinking persists, and will do for a long time to come I suspect.

[pottyprof]

There is NO period in the CET record during which so few years have come under either the mark set 10, 20 or 30 years previously. Since 1988 there have been only 8 such instances. For us to be hollering legitimately, rather than fancifully, about cooling we'd need to be seeing year after year of downtrend in the mean.

Sorry.. In one breath the CET has nothing to do with global temperatures and then in the next breath it has everything to do with it..

Globally, the temps are showing signs of levelling out or perhaps cooling. Locally they show a steady climb, which is probably more down to synoptics and recent higher sea temperatures than anything else. They are a microscopic representation as to what is happening globally. Makes no difference how long they have been keeping the records. The CET tells us sod all about the Japanese temperatures or any other temperatures..

I suggest the delusions are yours SF. What is the global trend over the last ten years without comparison? What is the real trend?