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Yet another year of exceptional global warmth


Bobby

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Globally, the temps are showing signs of levelling out or perhaps cooling

NASA says this year is set to be the 2nd warmest globally ever recorded. NOAA says that seven of the eight warmest years globally on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1997. How this shows a levelling or cooling I really can't fathom. How can it be any clearer? NASA also has 2005 as the warmest ever year.

All this is happening during the decline of the solar output. Next year the sun should start to heat up again. I wager a new record year will be recorded within 3 years.

Edited by Magpie
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Once we loose the sea ice over summer (an event coming soon to a pole near you!) then we will see a marked rise in n.Hemisphere temps. The south will take longer but it's effects will be physically catastrophic.

Both these events have more to do with sea temp.s than direct heating from the sun (the deed is already done in fact). global temps will continue to rise because of the planets new found abilities to hold onto heat and it's lessening polar impacts on global temp distribution.

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Once we loose the sea ice over summer (an event coming soon to a pole near you!) then we will see a marked rise in n.Hemisphere temps. The south will take longer but it's effects will be physically catastrophic.

Both these events have more to do with sea temp.s than direct heating from the sun (the deed is already done in fact). global temps will continue to rise because of the planets new found abilities to hold onto heat and it's lessening polar impacts on global temp distribution.

True. What's also worrying is that the new solar cycle should start anytime now, with a good 11 years of a warming sun ahead of us. That combined with the rapidly darkening arctic could lead to some very warm years ahead. I'm expecting the rate of warming to keep on accelerating.

We live in interesting times...

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Posted
  • Location: South Pole
  • Location: South Pole
NOAA says that seven of the eight warmest years globally on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1997. How this shows a levelling or cooling I really can't fathom. How can it be any clearer?

I agree. Some people are living in fantasy land on these boards. I have thought about the anomaly graph provided by WiB above. No one has yet explained how data purportedly from the same source can show apparently different trends and I thought about this last night.

Am I correct in assuming that the inference WiB draws from the apparent tailing off in his graph is similar to the fallacy a person makes when viewing inflation figures? In that, say, if the inflation rate falls from 4% to 3%, this does not mean we having falling prices (deflation), but we have prices that are still rising, but at a slower rate?

The more I think of it that way, the more I believe the top 10 list rather than WiB's wretched and misleading graph. Perhaps someone better versed in science than either WiB or myself can explain.

Edited by Nick H
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_since_1880

This is interesting. NOAA are also saying that 2005 was actually the warmest year on record, along with NASA (GISS). It seems the Met Office and CRU say 1998 is the warmest.

Of the top 7 warmest years on records, 6 of them came after 1998 according to NOAA.

One shouldn't concentrate on the small details though, but look at the big picture. That goes both ways.

1000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

Edited by Magpie
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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
Yes, allow me.

Thank you, Richard, you are a gentleman. :)

The graphs show irrefutable signs of a cooldown since 1999, as more and more people are starting to realise.

Yes, that is how I read them too. It strikes me that the evidence is beginning to mount.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Yes, that is how I read them too. It strikes me that the evidence is beginning to mount.

???

You'll have to back that one up noggin!

All Ive seen are top global temps ever recorded (even if the order is not ascending). When temps are still globally in excess of those ever recorded by humanity how can you see evidence for cooling? Was it the record Arctic melt? is it the rapid Antarctic melt this year? is it the European heatwave and drought this year? or the Chinese drought? or the US drought? or the Australian drought?

You see all I can find are warming events (and temps to match) when I look over the year.......

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
1998: 0.52C (above the 1961-1990 average)

2005: 0.48C

2003: 0.46C

2002: 0.46C

2004: 0.43C

2006: 0.42C

2007 (provisional): 0.41C

2001: 0.40C

1997: 0.36C

1995: 0.28C

Can we re-arrange these in year order?

1998 .52

1999

2000

2001 .40

2002 .46

2003 .46

2004 .43

2005 .48

2006 .42

2007 .41 (prov)

Now that lot doesn't look to me like a continuation of a warming trend. There is nothing there that is warmer than 1998. It would be interesting to be able to fill in the blanks, too!

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Can we re-arrange these in year order?

1998 .52

1999

2000

2001 .40

2002 .46

2003 .46

2004 .43

2005 .48

2006 .42

2007 .41 (prov)

Now that lot doesn't look to me like a continuation of a warming trend. There is nothing there that is warmer than 1998. It would be interesting to be able to fill in the blanks, too!

Run it alongside the temps for the 80's or the temps for the 70's or the temps for the 60's and we'll put the lower decades below and the higher one above. The 'fluctuations' in a decade should be enough to give us a reasonably meaningful comparison I wonder where the 90's and the 00's would fit in?

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
???

You'll have to back that one up noggin!

All Ive seen are top global temps ever recorded (even if the order is not ascending). When temps are still globally in excess of those ever recorded by humanity how can you see evidence for cooling? Was it the record Arctic melt? is it the rapid Antarctic melt this year? is it the European heatwave and drought this year? or the Chinese drought? or the US drought? or the Australian drought?

You see all I can find are warming events (and temps to match) when I look over the year.......

We posted simultaneously, Gray-Wolf!

Are we still talking about 2007? Because the graphs I posted showed an absolute levelling-off since 1999, with perhaps a tiny bit of cooldown. No way could anyone see any upward movement since 1999.

Also, in my post above, I have taken the figures supplied by Nick H (hope he doesn't mind :) ) and rearranged them in chronological order. There is absolutely no upward movement there either.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Don't forget that the temps are measured against 2 different rolling averages as they span 2 different decades! If we evened out a single 40yr rolling average to cover the period you post you may find a fifferent 'trend' appearing (as decadal averages seem to increase decade on decade over the past 40 years you'd expect the first years of any decade to fair badly and it slowly warm as the decade progresses.....)

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
Sorry.. In one breath the CET has nothing to do with global temperatures and then in the next breath it has everything to do with it..

Globally, the temps are showing signs of levelling out or perhaps cooling. Locally they show a steady climb, which is probably more down to synoptics and recent higher sea temperatures than anything else. They are a microscopic representation as to what is happening globally. Makes no difference how long they have been keeping the records. The CET tells us sod all about the Japanese temperatures or any other temperatures..

I suggest the delusions are yours SF. What is the global trend over the last ten years without comparison? What is the real trend?

Perhaps, since you're smarter than I am PP, you will explain how the original plot shows cooling. At the very best it indicates a levelling off. Noggin is quite right to say that since 1998 we haven't seen a hotter year globally, but nor have we seen ANY behaviour to suggest that temperatures are about to trend downwards. As Nick says further up, the best we can probably assume at present is that the foot has been eased off the accelerator. As and when temperatures start to return downwards towards levels last seen in the 80s and earleir then I, and I daresay others who acknowledge warming, will change our positions. I copntinue to wonder what will make those who doubt warming change theirs: nobody ever seems willing to offer a line - hence my longheld view that if we have contrinued warming we will still be here in ten years time having the same arguments about, say, no month having been warmer than July 2003. Likie codes in the bible, you can see whatever you choose to in the detail of numbers: the big picture though is undeniable. We remain at around record levels of warmth with absolutely no indication of a substantial cooldown. To listen to WiB I could be forgiven that thinking a trip to the east coast would allow me to see icebergs floating by.

We posted simultaneously, Gray-Wolf!

Are we still talking about 2007? Because the graphs I posted showed an absolute levelling-off since 1999, with perhaps a tiny bit of cooldown. No way could anyone see any upward movement since 1999.

Also, in my post above, I have taken the figures supplied by Nick H (hope he doesn't mind B) ) and rearranged them in chronological order. There is absolutely no upward movement there either.

Hypothetically Noggin, if in the next 2-3 years we spike above 1998, what then will be your view?

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
Perhaps, since you're smarter than I am PP, you will explain how the original plot shows cooling. At the very best it indicates a levelling off.

I thank you for agreeing with what I said.. :)

Speed reading has drawbacks..

We remain at around record levels of warmth with absolutely no indication of a substantial cooldown.

Which I don't dispute.. I do however object to anyone saying that the recent trend is upwards, recent being the last 10 years in real terms.. Not run off against a rolling average, which distorts the recent data.. Using a rolling average will show a rise. Using real data won't.. Why is that??

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Posted
  • Location: South Pole
  • Location: South Pole
Using a rolling average will show a rise. Using real data won't.. Why is that??

Presumably because the earlier years which drop out of the series every year are replaced by much warmer years.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

So then we're back to plotting the temps and using a line of best fit!! Who in their right mind would stick a 'U' turn in temps at the end of the series because the wish to run the plot over 1 anomalously warm year?

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
Try the Central Englans Temperature Series - the oldest in the world, and therefore a good indicator of the micro-climatic effects of macro-climatic drivers. The last 6 months shows a marked cooldown, and the NH generally is experiencing a cold start to winter with temps anomalously low.

By the way, would be good to have the original NASA source for this rather than a biased blog.

Yes, allow me.

The graphs show irrefutable signs of a cooldown since 1999, as more and more people are starting to realise.

WiB,

given that the NH generally is experienceing a cold start to the winter can you please explain this to me, I am confused.

post-364-1198411353_thumb.png

And if we've been cooling down since 1999 can you explain why none of Hadley's charts show a cooldown?

post-364-1198411513_thumb.png

I'm sure you know better thsan NASA and Hadley, and I'm sure I'm not alone in awaiting clarification.

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
I thank you for agreeing with what I said.. :)

Speed reading has drawbacks..

Which I don't dispute.. I do however object to anyone saying that the recent trend is upwards, recent being the last 10 years in real terms.. Not run off against a rolling average, which distorts the recent data.. Using a rolling average will show a rise. Using real data won't.. Why is that??

Now PP, you need to get in line with WiB here because he's forever berating me for chopping and changing averages apparently to suit. I completely agree that the ten year mean is the better one to use at present because it is more responsive to what is a dynamic situation - but only in terms of the here and now of our climate. We are so much warmer now than thirty years ago that even a cool year by recent standards (one not in the all time top ten) would STILL give an increase in the thirty year trend.

I think also you need to clarify what you mean by 'using real data' as opposed to 'a rolling average' (which presumably isn't real even though the average is derived from the very same real data). What a rolling average does is to smooth out the effects in data that oscillates around a mean - as weather does with climate. I can understand why Noggin argues that because global temperatures peaked in 1998 we must now be cooling, but I'm sorry, this is hugely naive maths when pretty much every year since then has been in the all time top ten. If 1998 were a huge outlier and we had dropped back to the sorts of temperatures we saw in the 80s and 90s then this could be dismissed as an aberration: given that we know there were other factors at play that year, and the broader context since, it is far more likely that in the next ten years this peak will be surpassed than it is that we will drop back to levels seen a couple of decades ago. Hence my oft made point: I frequently place staistical markers that would sway my view, strange that none of tose who suspect that the warming is natural ever do so. HOw much warmer would things have to get before you, and Noggin, and Jethro say might accept that this is not (wholly) natural, and it isn't about to turn around?

Re my agreeing with you: you said "levelling...or cooling"; to be clear, I agree with the levelling, I await your explanation re 'perhaps cooling'. Given that you've said 'perhaps' I suggest you can see something I cannot, and it is that elaboration that I await eagerly.

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

The recent trend is basically flat. The rolling averages do not show that this is the case. These are manipulated figures and do not correspond with the real figures. I do understand the need to use rolling averages. The 10 year rolling average is showing something closer to the real data. That is all I am stating SF. I use the word "possibly" because if we are at a plateaux, then it is possible that we could be entering a cooling phase. We could on the other hand start to warm again but we wont know for another 10 years or so as to which way the definite direction is. I agree that the plateaux is at a high level and if we do warm further, then AGW will probably be the answer.

I do accept that man isn't helping the situation and I do accept that we need to do something. My view remains that we do not know what will happen at this moment in time. When global temperatures have peaked in the past, the data shows a sharp decrease. All we can do is rely on scientists to make educated guesses in the case of an AGW enforced trend. If it is natural, then we will peak at some point in the future and we will have to face a rapid global cool down, which may be just as problematic as the warming probably more so, as we are planning for the opposite..

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
The recent trend is basically flat. The rolling averages do not show that this is the case. These are manipulated figures and do not correspond with the real figures. I do understand the need to use rolling averages. The 10 year rolling average is showing something closer to the real data. That is all I am stating SF. I use the word "possibly" because if we are at a plateaux, then it is possible that we could be entering a cooling phase. We could on the other hand start to warm again but we wont know for another 10 years or so as to which way the definite direction is. I agree that the plateaux is at a high level and if we do warm further, then AGW will probably be the answer.

I do accept that man isn't helping the situation and I do accept that we need to do something. My view remains that we do not know what will happen at this moment in time. When global temperatures have peaked in the past, the data shows a sharp decrease. All we can do is rely on scientists to make educated guesses in the case of an AGW enforced trend. If it is natural, then we will peak at some point in the future and we will have to face a rapid global cool down, which may be just as problematic as the warming probably more so, as we are planning for the opposite..

All very fair and reasonable PP: WiB may or may not agree, but I suspect you and I are of a like mind when it comes to 'reasonable' levelling.

As various of us pointed out during the debate (in the analysis thread) on whether this current spell of relative cool (in the UK) is meaningful or not, we will have to wait and see for a while. Even the ten year mean is almost certain to rise for another 3-4 years because three of the four years we will lose next are 8,9 and 10 by rank of warmth in the last ten years. Thereafter it becomes more interesting because we are goping to need to exceed what are already unprecedented levels of warmth for the trend to continue.

Four or five years ago on Slow Watch I was widely pilloried for my views on the trend of things. Back then I was - if not totally out on a limb certainly in sparse company and on fairly new growth branches. Five years on the case for warming is much stronger, and we are approaching the point at which, stastically, any reasonable doubt about this being a natural blip can be dismissed - it is so far above anything in the measured record, and so ubiquitous an event, that 'natural causes' as the sole or predominant driver is a rapidly dying flame. Let's be clear, I'm not saying that we've crossed the line yet, but if in five years' time that ten year trend continues upwards and is well above the current mark then I think we're in trouble and will have passed anything that could be reasoned to be natural.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
HOw much warmer would things have to get before you, and Noggin, and Jethro say might accept that this is not (wholly) natural, and it isn't about to turn around?

For the 369,000,000 time; I have never, ever said it is ALL natural.

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
For the 369,000,000 time; I have never, ever said it is ALL natural.

Please explain how you have established, catagorically that what we are experiencing now, isn't natural. Please, also explain why natural cycles are now consigned to history and no longer happening.

As for believing; you may have identified three reasons, but I do understand the subject, have no illusions or axe to grind with governments nor do I have any emotional feelings other than incredulity. I personally don't buy into this wholesale because the whole thing has more holes in it than a teabag.

Post 136 - Groundswell thread: Dec 5th. I know my assertions frustrate you, but what am I supposed to make when you insist one thing (you state you accept warming isn't all natural) then post another completely opposite view (prove to me that it isn't all natural).

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
but if in five years' time that ten year trend continues upwards and is well above the current mark then I think we're in trouble and will have passed anything that could be reasoned to be natural.

Possibly. I'm more inclined to say 10 years to iron out any slight fluctuations in data but any reasonable person would have to agree, that any major upturn within that time scale, would seriously have to reconsider their thinking on natural variations.. We are at a seriously high peak.

For the 369,000,000 time; I have never, ever said it is ALL natural.

Said the vicar to the actress.. Ooo errr.. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Please explain how you have established, catagorically that what we are experiencing now, isn't natural. Please, also explain why natural cycles are now consigned to history and no longer happening.

As for believing; you may have identified three reasons, but I do understand the subject, have no illusions or axe to grind with governments nor do I have any emotional feelings other than incredulity. I personally don't buy into this wholesale because the whole thing has more holes in it than a teabag.

Post 136 - Groundswell thread: Dec 5th. I know my assertions frustrate you, but what am I supposed to make when you insist one thing (you state you accept warming isn't all natural) then post another completely opposite view (prove to me that it isn't all natural).

Well, I'm not explaining it again; I'm bored saying it and everyone must be incredibly bored reading the same old, same old from me to you.

A very Happy Christmas everyone! Hope it's a good one.

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