Annual CET - 2008

[Gavin P]

I must say, I'm surprised there are so many people going for 10's for 2008. I think we're seeing clear indicarions now that Scandinavian Blocking is going to be a major player this January and one assumes probably on and off through February and March as well. Assuming Jan-March comes in at average or lower, that puts a lot of pressure on the summer to come in very warm to achieve a CET f 10+ Given we've not had a hot summer in a year ending with 8 since Victorian times, I wouldn't put too much money on the summer being anything to write home about.

[Gavin P]

Right, final guess from me (won't be changing this again)

9.5. Coolest year since 1996.

Roughly I'm expecting;

January - Cold.

February - Average to cool.

March - Cold.

April - Very wet and cool.

May - Warm and thundery.

June - Cold and wet.

July - Average and dry (best month of the summer)

August - Very wet and cool.

As for the rest of the year, no idea yet, but whatever else happens, the months Jan-Aug would be enough to ensure 2008 is an under 10c year.

[mk13]

I'll punt for 10.75c

[Bobby]

I think the warmth is going to come roaring back in record breaking form after a short period of more average temperatures.

I go for 10.8c, warmest year on record. I think a very warm summer and very warm Autumn.

[reef]

Im suprised at the number of sub-10C guesses, especially so when the last rolling 12 month period to see a value like this was back in 2001. To see a whole year of sustained average/cool weather would be difficult, but for it to fit within a calandar year is even more unlikely.

An interesting statistic with regards to summers ending in 8, but nothing more than a statistical quirk unfortunately. One example I once used was the checkerboard pattern of below/above average July's from 1997-2005, going by that pattern July 2006 should have been below average - and look what happened!

Not really a forecast and nothing more than a guess really, but Im thinking:

January: 5.4C (+1.2)

February: 5.6C (+1.4)

March: 7.5C (+1.2)

April: 7.9C (-0.2)

May: 11.2C (0.0)

June: 15.7C (+1.6)

July 17.3C (+0.8 )

August: 18.0C (+1.8 )

September: 15.3C (+1.6)

October: 9.8C (-0.6)

November: 8.2C (+1.3)

December: 5.6C (+0.5)

Hence:

Winter: 5.3C (+0.8 )

Spring: 8.9C (+0.3)

Summer: 17.0C (+1.4)

Autumn: 11.1C (+0.8 )

Therefore an annual value of 10.63C

[Calrissian]

2007 was a significant disapointment after the great summer of 2006. I'm hopeful of better things in 2008.

I continue to await a 'Jump year', and I still predict & expect it within the next 3-5 years, and I see no reason why it can't be 2008. Many factors are most likely going to contribute towards another new record for the NW European climate.

After much consideration I've finalised my prediction for the year ahead. In collaboration with a visionary from the distant future - Dr. Lexus, I am sure this year my prediction will be more accurate.

Specifically, after a relatively cool spring...things may well Jump this summer to a new level of prolonged warmth. It will make for some great summer evenings, and much hysteria on this board with regards to the overall argument on warming vs the denialists.

Autumn and winter will likely be mostly 'normal', but the contrast to the predicted long hot summer will be stark.

January: 4.5

February: 5.9

March: 6.7

April: 8.5

May: 12.1

June: 16.1

July: 20.1

August: 18.4

September: 14.7

October: 12.2

November: 7.8

December: 6.1

--

More than anything for 2008, I am gunning for a month where the monthly CET is 20.0+ We've come close a few times over the last decade or so, but with the overall warming trend, why might it not be this year ?

Calrissian: wishful thinking..for a year that will probably suck

[Roger J Smith]

Dr Lexus -- wasn't he sacked by Piers Corbyn for ramping too much?

:lol: B) B) :lol:

[Stratos Ferric]

I think we still need a Nino for exceptional warmth: the current Nino may help to peg things back Q1, though I suspect not enough to get to a 12 month rolling sub 10 - though I'd love to see it because it would infer a half decent winter. Thereafter I just can't see a sustained cold spell, nor a summer anything like as miserable as the one we've just had - unless arctic ice melt is changing our climate in as yet unnoticed ways.

The corridor for rolling 12 month mean for the last few years is around 10.0 - 10.7C, with outturn seemingly having found a new baseline at around 10.4. My guess is therefore:

10.55C

[Calrissian]

hmm, 10.55 is a very fair estimate. I always like to be more daring, and I'd think even 10.7 would be a fair change.

As 2007 showed, the first 4 months were no indicator as to the summer that was to come. Its going to indeed be a very long year for us weather fanatics, regardless, its fun to guess.

Calrissian: stuck with 11.1 (too late now !)

[Gavin P]

OK, a couple of points;

1. Why is there this assumption that because every year since 2001 has had an annual CET of 10c+ this year has to follow? The weather is not linear and doesn't follow kind of pattern. Nobody's ever said that Global Warming prevents cooler months/years from occuring.

2. It was only 1996 that we achieved a year at 9.2 - Thats only 12 years ago, which isn't really very long at all. The weather/climate has not shifted so fundamentally in just a decade and a bit, that 9c CET years are no longer possible.

In the end, we'll see. But I thinki 2008 is going to raise some eyebrows in the folk that the UK's weather pattern is set up for a conveyor of neverending warmth, with no deviations.

[LadyPakal]

Am I too late for a punt? Meant to do it last night but alcohol got in the way....

I'll try 10.3 for 2008 if I may.

Happy New Year to all!

[Iceberg]

11.2 a very warm year for UK coming up.....

[DR Hosking]

for no reason other than picking a number out of thin air im going for 10.5c for annual 2008 cet.

[Stargazer]

A pure guess, of course...

10.42.

[summer blizzard]

Heres my punt...

January: 4.9C, 0.7C above average

February: 2.4C, 1.8C below average

March: 7.6C, 1.3C above average

Q1 CET: 5C, 0.1C above average

April: 9.3C, 1.2C above average

May: 10.8C, 0.5C below average

June: 15.4C, 1.3C above average

Q2 CET: 11.8C, 0.7C above average

July: 18.2C, 1.7C above average

August: 16.2C, Average

September: 15C, 1.3C above average

Q3 CET: 16.5C, 1C above average

October: 11.6C, 1.2C above average

November: 6.4C, 0.5C below average

December: 5.8C, 0.7C above average

Q4 CET: 7.9C, 0.5C above average

2008 CET: 10.42C, 0.58C above average

Edited January 2, 2008 by summer blizzard

[Guest Mike W]

The only months that I think are totally impossible to get a CET as low as that SB are Feb, May & Nov. I also think it's going to be tricky to get the August CET as low as 16.2, but obviously possible just tricky IMO. I am thinking that the lowest possible Annual CET for this year will be a 10.6* with the highest being 11.0*, although I wouldn't rule out higher than that.

Edited January 2, 2008 by Mike W

[paul tall]

The lowest possible 10.6º ?

Not knocking your guess but if it isn't possible to get below 10.6 then we've got a bit of a problem.

I think we may see a plateau or possibly a slight cooldown over the next 2-3 years (hunch), and I'm going to go for :-

10.2º

[noggin]

If it's not to late to enter, then I will go for a 9.5 please.

Reason....as stated ad nauseum by moi ( ), I think the scales have tipped. The warm-up has tailed off and we are tootling across the top of the roller-coaster, maybe even just starting the descent. Therefore I have plumped for a value from an earlier part of my long life.

Roll on New Year 2009 and we'll see who was right! :lol:

[Mr Sleet]

2006 and 2007 were heavily influenced (warmed) by El Nino. As 2007 looks like coming in at about 10.5, I will go for a cool down to 10.25 for 2008.

Edited January 2, 2008 by Mr Sleet

[SNOW-MAN2006]

For this year i am fearing another poor one, just a thought however i think Percipitation will be very high, never anything exceptionally warm or cold just generally mild im afraid. Around 10.75 is my punt :blink:

SM06

[SP1986]

Id go along with the previous estimate: 10.7 to 10.8 - I'll settle with 10.8C

[Lightning Hunter]

What's the longterm average and what was 2007? Here, 2007 was 0.5°C cooler than 2006.

[Jeremy Shockey]

i'll have a stab at the following.

Q1 CET: 4.8 c

Q2 CET: 11.5 c

Q3 CET: 16.1 c

Q4 CET: 7.2 c

2008 CET: 9.9 c

regards

JS

[Stratos Ferric]

What's the longterm average and what was 2007? Here, 2007 was 0.5°C cooler than 2006.

How much warmer was 2006 than 2005?

[Lightning Hunter]

How much warmer was 2006 than 2005?

About 0.45°C. 2004 was similar to 2005. Swings and roundabouts really. Anyone know the long term average then? Impossible to make a guess without knowing really.